Hubs, narrowbodies, network and price,- The Turkish option.

I’ve been a frequent, if somewhat reluctant, transfer passenger at Istanbul for a few years now. For a couple of my usual destinations from Copenhagen such as Baku or Cairo it more or less makes sense when coming from northern Europe if a direct flight is impossible, but for my most recent travel to Accra it patently does not, unless ticket price is the number one consideration over travel time (approx 15 hour chock-to-chock schedule as opposed to around 10 hours via Amsterdam, London or Frankfurt). If it was my own money, I would (and indeed have) paid the extra for the better transit time.

Turkish airlines ‘short haul’ and economy class themselves are no better or worse than most others operating in Europe, although you do get a fairly good meal, at least compared to the packet of peanuts that you would be lucky to receive on one of the European ‘full service’ carriers. Seat sizes vary depending on aircraft type. On this round trip of 4 Turkish flights I get to try the A321, B737-900ER (twice), and the A330. The 737 offers the most personal space, the A330 the least (I type this on the A330. It is physically impossible to open the laptop on my own tray table, luckily I have a spare seat next to me so am sitting sideways and using belonging to that. The northbound 737 last night from Accra had the novelty of having seats that did not recline, so while opening a laptop would have been possible had I wanted to work at 2am, a few extra degrees of  nocturnal recline was not available .You obviously cannot have it all, at least not all at the same time.  

 And so to Istanbul. The transfer itself is straightforward when coming from Europe, in that you do not have to go through security or passport control. Coming from Accra, Baku and Cairo (and presumably any other place where the security arrangements are considered by Istanbul to be dubious), you do have to go through security, which can be a long process given the high volume of transfer passengers. Coming from Copenhagen however you are simply herded up to departures and are then free to recover from your last flight and prepare for your next one. In my case, economy class or not, thanks to my Star Alliance gold card this means heading for their excellent, very large, but often still crowded lounge.

Getting to the lounge is tricky though. Not that it is difficult to find, but because Istanbul airport is crowded.  Turkish proudly advertises that it flies to more destinations than any other airline and it shows. The ramp is crowded with A320s and B737s wingtip-to-wingtip, more often than not on remote gates that require buses. Most of the passengers are not flying to or from Istanbul but in transit between 2 other places. Like the “new” Gulf majors that’s what their business model is all about. Inside the terminal, expanded from the copper-roofed polygon I remember from holidays in Turkey in the late 1980s, the masses of transit passengers are loitering, being fed, or getting lost trying to find their next flight. Even the vast, 2-level Turkish Airlines lounge, reputedly the largest in the world, is often very busy, with passengers shuffling between the various different food and drink ‘stalls’ and trying to find a suitable place to sit. The facility itself is great, with good and plentiful things to eat and drink, masses of natural light (though no view of the ramp for the plane spotters) and all laid out in a Grand Bazaar style. I’m just not sure it is meant to feel like the Grand Bazaar in terms of the number of people in it.

 If however you are lucky enough to secure a spot on one of the sofa-type things then you are going to have a reasonable time while you wait.

Next up is getting your next flight. As most gates require buses, boarding typically starts an hour before scheduled departure, and in general is completed on time. However you then hit another feature of Istanbul’s capacity problem. You cannot take off. Typically you face a half hour delay on chock time, followed by 15 – 30 minutes before you actually start flying. This must cause a hub-and-spoke system quite some stress. Turkish seem to schedule about an hour turnaround at their destinations, so if they are close to an hour late on arrival they need to be pretty sharp to get back to their Istanbul hub in time. They do seem to have taken this into account with their schedules, which to put it politely are somewhat generous.  The Istanbul – Copenhagen leg is scheduled at 3 hours 20 whereas the flight time is 2 hours 45. Likewise the schedule for the legs to and from Accra add 30 minutes to the actual flight time.

Once finally lining up to take off, you may then get to experience a very interesting use of runways…

My flight was due to depart from 17R. About 1 in 4 departures are on that runway. The other 3 in 4 were from 35L – that’s  the opposite end of the same runway.

Simultaneously, Runway 05 was being used for arrivals. From experience at Istanbul it is fairly normal to use 05 for arrivals and 35L for departures, but the use of 17R as well is unusual and it would appear to the casual observer potentially quite hazardous. Taking off from 17R requires a gap both in departures from 35L and in arrivals onto 05, as the threshold for 05 is very close to the far end (ie the ‘35L end’) of 17R.

In addition a rise in the middle of 17R /35L means that one end is not visible from the other. No room for a mistake by ATC there. I’d be interested to know why both ends of the same runway are in use. Would it not be simpler and more fail-safe for southbound aircraft such as ours to do a U-Turn after take-off, rather than take off towards the south? The only reason I can think of is that the queue for 35L was getting so long that it was backing onto the apron, and so a few aircraft were directed over to the other end to relieve the pressure by expediting their departures.

Go to link https;//www.dropbox.com/s/ck421p4j7nvcxkw/201506%20Approaches.pdf?dl=0   for pictures of:

1) Waiting near the end of 17R.

2) Turning onto 17R to take off. Note the hill meaning the opposite (35L) end is not visible.

3) After take off from 17R. A couple of plane are visible under the leading edge of the wing waiting to take off from 35L, and the threshold of 05, being used for arrivals.

Finally there’s the question of how far people are willing to fly on a narrow body. The Istanbul – Accra leg is flown by the 737-900ER, and takes close to 7 hours. It does feel like a long way to fly in a small-ish aircraft, but it’s not intrinsically worse than flying in a wide body in my book. Turkish relies on the ‘pile ‘em high, sell ‘em cheap’ model and it seems that for the majority of its passengers the ticket price is far more important than the width of the tube in which they will be sitting.  The 737 is noticeably bumpier over the Sahara when compared to a larger wide body with more weight and size mass but not to the point of discomfort. More importantly the narrow bodies are usually full, which would imply the either need either to increase frequencies or go for larger aircraft.  Given Istanbul’s runway capacity issue, bigger aircraft would appear to be the only way to go right now.

Turkish Airlines and the Istanbul hub no doubt make sense in a lot of cases .Firstly when ticket cost is the primary driver, as this trip was approximately half the cost of the next-lowest bidder (KLM, BA and Lufthansa, who all had similar higher prices). It also makes sense when there is no direct flight and Istanbul is in a logical direction . My previous transits from Copenhagen to Baku or Cairo fall into this category.  But when flying from north west Europe to west Africa  I’d not choose to go this circuitous way if the decision was mine.

Footnote: On arrival in Copenhagen I found my check in bag was still in Istanbul. Obviously it takes about an hour after landing to figure out that no, yours is not going to arrive. Then you fill out all the forms, queue to hand them in and get a reference number and so on.  Yes, other airlines have lost my baggage too, but especially after an extended journey time it’s the last thing you need.

-Andrew Woodrow-

African Roundup April May 2015

Further talks on the creation of Air Cemac, a putative successor to Air Afrique, have been abandoned. This may well see the ghost of Air Afrique finally laid to rest but one can never be sure.  Air Afrique, established in 1960, ceased operations in 2002 It was designed as an element of France’s African decolonislation programme aimed to give newly independent former French colonies a share of the cake including on the lucrative Paris routes while carefully ensuring that Air France remained dominant.  The French carrier held 17% of the shares and the 11 newly independent states held 6% each.  The management difficulties were profound as each country vied for national preference, staff numbers swelled, and escalating cash problems just got worse. Had these latest talk succeeded Air Cemac would have looked startlingly familiar. Air France was to be the major shareholder and 6 states would have held 5% each. Almost certainly the problems,- and the eventual result,- would also have been similar.

Trying to re-creating failed carriers in almost their previous form is a rotating feature of sub-Saharan Africa. Usually missing though is the realization that the new entities, their governance and what they did would have to be very different from the originals. Examples include Cameroon Airlines being replaced with Camair-Co, Ivory Coast replacing Air Ivoire with Air Côte d’Ivoire and Malawi with new Malawian Airlines. All are near mirror images of their failed predecessors,– small fleets, small networks ,an unchanged business philosophy always struggling with poor capitalization and inadequate revenue flows with little real chance of improvement without greatly increased investment. But then for most just where is there for them to go? 

Fastjet and FlyAfrica aim to break out of these failing models. They offer refreshing new ways of doing business but they face underlying national hostilities to and distrust of things foreign. These things are remain powerful obstacles. Both still face a long slog to actually get the necessary traffic rights they urgently need to reach the essential critical mass of networks and frequencies. Meanwhile travel around Africa, while improving, is as ever, hobbled by lack of new city pairs and frequencies. Chicken and egg questions abound.  If Fastjet and others can not break the mould then others will not be encouraged to follow in their footsteps.

Fastjet’s communications are excellent. They publish clear objectives and some useful figures and radiate an optimistic stance. Getting from intention to aircraft on the ramp though is another matter. Despite the Presidential exchanges which saw Tanzania drop its restrictions on Kenya Airways in a matter of days, Kenya remains silent on the Tanzanian company’s perfectly legitimate reciprocal application to operate into Nairobi.

Kenya Airways, largely free of Kenya Government involvement in its affairs since its privatization is now being drawn back towards the governmental flypaper. Its recent declining operational performance and operating losses of 2013 and 2014 and need for new money have opened the way to parliamentary scrutiny and, if politicians and civil servants get their way, ongoing involvement.

The vehicle used to achieve this is a Parliamentary Senate Select Committee which will inquire into the airline’s business model and financing since 1996, the year of privatization when KLM took a 26% shareholding. Until recently the airline has created and ridden the momentum of a growth strategy and been conspicuously successful. The Kenya Government continues to be the largest single shareholder with 29.8 similar to KLM’s but it does not own the airline.

Lately some things have gone a bit awry. The West African ebola outbreaks have badly hit business on that side of the continent and security incidents in Kenya have made people think twice about visiting the country or even transiting Nairobi airport. The fleet has taken on a bit of a lopsided look too with the addition of over- large 777-300s rather than a larger number of smaller aircraft to spread the network and the downside risks. Disposing of all the 777s will at least make the 787 in all its models the standard widebodied vehicle. The -8 in particular looks like the trans-Africa dream machine, offering the right numbers of seats and useful cargo capacity. As we have pondered before, can the narrowbodied 737-900 really hold its own on the long 6-7 hour sectors in the medium/long term. They are acceptable if there is no option but when there is it could be game over.

Ethiopian Airlines, Africa’s fastest growing airline, adds Gaborone and Cape Town in June. Next up will be an eastern spoke to Manila via Bangkok from July as the network continues to expand its already dominant position on the continent taking its international destinations to 86.

A byproduct of Ethiopian reaching further into southern Africa is that Air Botswana’s role as a feeder of international traffic over Johannesburg will be under more pressure. Its recent codeshare deal on Kenya Airways flights to Nairobi will also take a hit. Again this is a small carrier with a small fleet and small network and with government the sole shareholder.  Its home market, Gaborone is tiny, just 350,000 residents. Success with a new 5 year plan including fleet renewal will be challenging.

Another small carrier facing difficulties is Korongo Airlines, the 2012 DRC start up, a joint venture involving Brussels Airlines and local investors. Startup was delayed for 2 years awaiting local regulatory clearances.  Initially operating with HS146s it now flies a single

B737-300. Based in Lubumbashi the network covers just Kinshasa and Mbuji Mayi plus Johannesburg.  Now it is facing the almost inevitable revenue and cash flow problems and is seeking external financing.  Shareholder Brussels Airlines is sticking by their policy of no further cash injections. Where does it go now?

1.  EAST AFRICA

Ethiopian Airlines is as seen from the above is as active as ever. It will switch westbound Toronto and Washington flight refuelling stops from Rome to Dublin although it currently has no traffic rights across the Atlantic from Ireland. The eastbound flights will in any case operate nonstop across the Atlantic to Addis Ababa so any business would be one way only.

On 21^st April the airline extended three weekly B787 Hong Kong frequencies to Tokyo and in July will serve manila similarly with B767-300s. The difference is that Manila is a short ninety minute sector which can be done cheaply in a single crew duty day. Additionally if traffic rights can be obtained there is a lot of low yield but high excess baggage local labour traffic available. 

Fastjet has been awarded an Air Service Permit by Zimbabwe. That doesn’t mean that flying now starts without further ado. The next step is to apply for an AOC application is the next step.  Domestic Harare-Victoria Falls and Bulawayo services are likely to precede international routes. Existing Dar es Salaam - Harare services are operated by Fastjet Tanzania.

The airline has raised US$74m additional funding to meet ‘ongoing operational costs’ and fleet expansion by one or two aircraft plus the establishment of new companies in Zambia, South Africa, Zimbabwe and Kenya.

Jambojet added a leased Q400 to serve coastal points Lamu,Malindi and Ukunda.  Its current fleet is 3 former Kenya Airways’ B737-300s.

The company then received a court order to cease operating these following an unhelpful claim by KALPA (Kenya Airline Pilots Assosciation) that it does not hold an independent AOC. Again one has to wonder whether for Kenya Airways setting up and running an arms length low cost carrier is worth doing. It has previously dabbled in a nominal separate low cost carrier (Kenya Flamingo), cargo venture (Kencargo) and Nairobi ground handling agent (KAHL-Kenya Airways Handling Limited) but none, each with its own Board, seem to have justified their “separateness”. Being able to call ones business a Group makes for nice titles but adds rather than reduces layers of management and the complexity and cost of corporate reporting.

Kenya Airways. The plan is to retire the B777-200 and B777-300 fleets. The last 777-200 operated on 18 May and the last 777-300 flight is scheduled for 26 Sep.  Future focus will be on additional B787 variants more suited to juggling demand levels which tend to rise and fall depending on perceived regional insecurity issues and more recently West African ebola scares. The latter have badly affected American tourist traffic to Kenya. Many potential American tourists tend to be geographically unaware and view all of Africa as one entity.

The airline’s US$105m loss and operational shortcomings have led to a US$43m Government loan. As above, the price paid for this in terms of government involvement/interference could be high. It is not a good development.

National Airways (Ethiopia) .This is a proposed start-up dependent on the anticipated liberalization of air services. Two EMB145s are mentioned as the initial fleet.

Precision Air (Tanzania) has added Tabora, with a new tarmac runway, as a 10^th domestic point.  With an ATR fleet incapable of competing effectively with Fastjet’s A319 fleet, Precision’s business model now sensibly focuses on domestic airports too small for the jet. Located in the centre of Tanzania, Tabora has a long aviation history. It was an en route point on Imperial Airways UK-South Africa landplane services before WW2, and on Sabena’s weekly DC 3 service from the Congo to Dar es Salaam in the 1950s.

Rwandair is benefitting from Airbus’ ability to give early delivery slots for current model A330s as it tries not to wind down ahead of new A330neo production.  An MoU has been signed with Airbus for two to be delivered late in 2016.

SouthEast Airlines (Kenya), a low cost carrier, has ceased operations. Flying since late 2014 with a single CRJ100 just a once per day on the Nairobi-Mombasa route it was no competitive match for Kenya Airways baby JamboJet with its multiple frequencies and greater resources.

2.  SOUTH / CENTRAL AFRICA

Air Botswana. A new 5 year plan calls for fleet renewal involving jets and turbo-props with capacity up to 100 seats. The current fleet is 2 RJ85s, 3 ATR42-500s and a single ATR72-500. The airline, like many others of its size and restricted opportunities continues to struggle to define what it should really be and do.

Air Cemac. Shareholder governments have abandoned the project. Like several others in former Air Afrique federal carrier territory it was originally conceived to take over part of the multi country airline’s network,- in this case in French Central Africa which is a much more northerly area that the one called Central Africa by the colonial British. The allocated funds of US$17m have been exhausted to no avail.

Air Namibia. State cash provision will continue beyond the 2014 ‘Turnaround Strategy’ 2016/17 deadline. The 3 year Government budget provides US$163m of “support”. That would be called “life support” in the health industry .The question will still remain as to how it can be genuinely viable beyond that time. If nationalistic politics could be pushed aside, it would be talking to Air Botswana.

Air Zimbabwe is forecasting US$80m revenue for 2015, up by 120%, as its nominal ‘turnround strategy’ unfolds.  This unfolding hasn’t though yet secured the release of two A320s which continue to be held by SAA Technic pending payment of maintenance bills.
The Minister of Transport, Obert Mpofu, says the airline requires three small jets, plus two 737-500s,(cheap to buy but its low capacity pushes up its seat mile cost) and two B787s.The total  cost of US$770m plus US$298m to service debts in order to re-establish itself and become viable is the problem . The Minister admits that “it is not conceivable that Government can inject the required capital” but what strategic investor is going to want to take on responsibility  and the interest payments hanging over from historic debts?  The airline has in the distant past been be profitable. It is more fortunate than Air Botswana in that its core long haul route to London can work especially with the low capacity, low seat mile cost B787-8 or even for the time being two high quality fully refurbished B767-300s if they could be found. The same probably applies to Air Namibia’s Windhoek-Frankfurt route. Again time for some real cross border thinking and talking?

Comair as previously reported the company was the successful bidder for the St Helena Government tender so will operate between Johannesburg and St Helena with B737-800 when the new airport opens early in 2016. This is a 7 year deal. The franchised BA brand will be used. It is also reported that an airline calling itself Atlantic Star will operate “charter” flights to Britain.

Congo Airways (DRC), this new national carrier whose AOC issue is pending is expecting the delivery of two A320s and a Q400 for a 30 June launch of services based on Kinshasa and Goma.  Air France Consulting is providing assistance .

EC Air (Congo Brazzaville) has a leased B757-200 was seized in Paris by a Congolese businessman claiming outstanding government payments but subsequently released. Presumably a cheque arrived.

EC Air will launch twice weekly Brazzaville-Beirut B757 services on 3^rd June. This complements existing Paris and Dubai B757 longer haul routes.

flyafrica.com (Namibia) has received a Foreign Carrier permit from Namibia’s CAA and plans to start up using two 737-500s from Windhoek to Johannesburg and to Cape Town. 

flyafrica.com (South Africa) is indicating Mozambique, Malawi, and Gabon together with Benin and Chad as target bases in addition to its existing one in Zimbabwe. Approvals for Namibia and Zambia services to/from Johannesburg remain pending.

Korongo Airlines (DRC) This 2012 joint venture Brussels Airlines/DRC Govt /Congolese private investors is seeking additional capital. The single B737-300 serves only Kinshasa-Mbuji Mayi and Johannesburg.

Malawian Airlines is planning to add a leased 30 seat aircraft in June to its fleet in June so as to expand domestics services to include Mzuzu, Karonga and Likoma Island and to reduce capacity on the thin Mozambique routes to Tete, Beira and Nampula for which the current Q400 is too big.

Unfortunately the addition of another solo aircraft type makes the operation look even more like its predecessor the now defunct Air Malawi. Planned for July are  routes from Lilongwe to Nairobi and Victoria Falls.

Proflight (Zambia) aims to fly Lusaka-Busanga (Kafue National Park) twice weekly from July using a J41.

SAA Final revisions to the 2013 Long Term Turnround Strategy are to be completed by 30 April. Then should follow a revived push on implimentation. If it doesn’t, the temporary CEO could be very temporary. The Interim Board’s approved life has been extended for 6 months pending the appointment of a new full-time successor.

To add to its woes the airline now faces a US$ 82m claim that it was responsible for the 1999 collapse of Sun Air.

The suspended CEO Monwabisi Kalawe has agreed to US$230K package in exchange for his resignation.

The airline has pledged a three year total US$840m procurement spend within the local black business community.  Clearly acknowledging some fears, the Deputy Minister of Trade and Industry has given assurances that “this will not be an opportunity for corrupt deals”.

As part of a plan to strengthen its US and West African services SAA is to substitute Accra for Dakar on the Johannesburg-Washington route. It will have 5^th freedom rights beyond Accra on the thrice weekly A340-600s. To help with feed from West Africa a codeshare has been agreed with Ghanaian Africa World Airlines.  The thrice weekly Johannesburg to Dakar flights will continue but not proceed across the Atlantic.

3.  WEST AFRICA

Air Côte d’Ivoire has confirmed options for 2 new Q400s. This will bring the total in of this type in the fleet to 4.

Arik Air (Nigeria) is thinking about establishing a hub in Cotonou, connecting to nine regional destinations. 

The CRJ1000 has been launched on regional services. The fleet now includes 4 CRJ900s. 

Meanwhile the Dubai route has been suspended after just nine months. The Nigerian economy is blamed but competition from the Emirates and Etihad products is the most likely reality.

ASKY (Togo) is seeking US$50-60m investment to ‘strengthen operations’ on its West/Central African network. A further 4 B737-800s are envisaged over the next 5 years.  Johannesburg and Beirut services are planned for later this year.

Things appear less than happy in the Head office though. CEO Yissehak Tewolde appointed by 40% shareholder, Ethiopian Airlines, has resigned suddenly for ‘personal reasons’. Henok Teffera the new appointee was previously Ethiopian Head of Strategy and Alliances. The 5 year Ethiopian management contract expired in January and there has been silence about its renewal.

Camair-Co has taken delivery of the second and third out of three 3 MA60s ordered in 2012.

 More significantly the carrier also acquire additional jet aircraft: a B767 for the route and 3 B737-300/400s to expand regional flying. The reported current operating loss is US$2.5 a month.

Discovery Air (Nigeria) anticipates getting its AOC back after a “Financial Health Audit”. This follows a 3 months suspension.

Goldstar Airlines (Ghana) This start-up has leased a MD-11, B747-300 and a B767-300 but still awaits the granting of an AOC. The fleet choice looks unusual, unpromising even.

Senegal Airlines. Escalating debt, now US$75m, has prompted Government (36% shareholder) to target early privatization but who would buy? Short term action includes a 40% staff cut to 140 plus a 40% pay cut. The current fleet is a single A320-200 and a Q400.

4.  NORTH AFRICA

Afriqiyah has leased 2 A330s to Turkish Airlines.

Air Algerie has taken delivery of the first of three A330-200s.The airline is to increase its fleet by 16 aircraft to 59 by the end of 2016 with regional route expansion supporting a planned long haul route to New York. 

Royal Air Maroc launched ATR72 hops across the water from both Tangier and Casablanca to Gibraltar on 29^th March.

The next move is hoped to be E190 services to Praia via Isla do Sal. Beyond that a joint venture with Qatar Airways is planned with codeshares opening a wide network eastwards from Doha. The North African carrier will fly thrice weekly B787s between Casablanca and Doha alongside Qatar’s daily offerings. Plans for a direct route to Beijing will be dropped. Membership of Oneworld, of which Qatar is a member, is now favoured over Star Alliance.

5.  NON-AFRICAN AIRLINES

Air China will launch thrice weekly Beijing to Johannesburg B777-300 schedules from June. They replace SAA who abandoned the route on 28^th March as part of its Turnaround Strategy.  

Air France is bringing Freetown back online three times a week from 30^th June.

China Southern is aiming to launch Guangzhou – Nairobi flights this summer. Another headache for Kenya Airways.

Fly Dubai. June sees Zanzibar frequency doubled from two to four weekly. Juba and Bujumbura are also to get increased capacity. Although related to Emirates, the two airlines operate entirely separately, each with its own staff and equipment. Connections between FlyDubai and other carriers at Dubai are not easy. Fly Dubai operates from the Low Cost terminal on the eastern side of the airport whereas Emirates and virtually all other airlines fly from the glitzy terminals on the west side. FlyDubai focuses primarily on point to point business and offers a low cost product.

Lufthansa is to re-enter the Kenya market after a long absence with a winter only A340-300 service to Nairobi. Until the advent of the 747-400 in the 1990s Nairobi was an essential daily technical call on most European carriers’ routes to Johannesburg. Once that was no longer needed Lufthansa flew nonstop to both Johannesburg and Nairobi, using A300/310s  for the latter. The loads though didn’t justify continuing the route so the Kenyan capital was dropped from the network and the beach holiday traffic to Mombasa was served direct by Condor and other tour operator charters.

Generally seasonal services to Nairobi have aimed at the summer European tourist trade. This one, which does not overlap with the Serengeti/Mara animal mass migration appears to target the winter business and coastal leisure markets. The latter requires a seamless international to Mombasa domestic connection at Nairobi and this would require full co-operation from Kenya Airways and the Kenya Airports Authority. Even for Kenya Airways own connecting passengers it has been a sore point for decades. Having to push a baggage trolley across a busy and poorly lit road is nobody’s definition of seamless.

Qatar Airways is on track to launch a five times weekly Doha-Kilimanjaro-Zanzibar-Doha triangle A320 in June.

Turkish Airlines continued its African expansion in May with a Istanbul-Ougadougou-Bamako B737-900 route. Next addition will be the extension of some Johannesburg services to Maputo in October.

6.  MISCELLANEOUS

Burundi: Kenya Airways, Brussels Airlines and Rwandair temporarily suspended  lights to Bujumbura after a military coup attempt.

Chad’s Government is looking at replacing its single B737-300 carrier Tournai Air Chad with a new national carrier. It isn’t clear how they propose to improve its fortunes. Staff cuts and allied cost reductions perhaps?

Côte d’Ivoire has received its ‘US Transport Security Administration’ approval’ for direct USA flights from Abidjan.

South Africa The High Court has rejected a case lodged by Comair that the regular ‘state guarantees’ given to SAA are in fact subsidies to avoid liquidation, things which would need full parliamentary approvals.  They unsuccessfully asked for Government’s recent action to be declared unconstitutional and unlawful. The outcome was perhaps predictable although Comair must have thought the cost of the case worth a try even if only as a warning shot to try to at least limit similar assistance to the future. When the chips are down the Government is unlikely to let SAA go out of business in almost any circumstances.

John Williams

31 May 2015

Aer Lingus banks towards IAG's ( and Qatar's?) flypaper.

The Irish Government has thrown in the towel on its 25.1%% share in Aer Lingus. It is prepared to sell out to IAG at 2.55 Euro a go. That will just leave a decision by RyanAir on its 29.8%% to come.

Ironically if Ryan do sell they become de facto Ireland's national carrier.

The deal comes with guarantees to the Irish Government that the key network structure of the high frequency London route and the use of Dublin as a trans Atlantic hub will continue for at least seven years and that Aer Lingus will remain a standalone brand in the same way as are BA, Iberia and Vuelling. Seven years is not a long time so while that is a short term comfort it gives no long term guarantees. Anything could  happen after that.

IAG's purchase follows its previous pattern of interests in geographical areas of which Chief Executive Willie Walsh has previous experience. It also continues the policy, other than in the case of Vuelling, of buying legacy carriers whose potential profits come from squeezing out inefficiencies and ancient working practices rather than necessarily route and revenue growth. The threat to any recalcitrants is that Vuelling can over time take over their short haul routes.  Indeed one can forsee Vuelling progressively becoming the operator of all the group's short haul network ,possibly on a pseudo franchise or codeshare basis, anyway.

Further afield IAG has been unsuccessful in persuading Boards to sell them their businesses. A very significant relationship has though developed with the extremely seductive Qatar Airways who recently purchased 10% of IAG in a move explained by its Chief Executive  as representing "an excellent opportunity to develop our westwards strategy". Here comes another development ? Qatar Airways (note the airline not the state per se)  would logically be interested in owning a higher percentage although the total of all non EU holdings is limited to under 50%.  Alone among the Europeans Walsh has recently come out fighting against USA and Europe moves to clip the wings of the Gulf carriers. Could we now be looking at a scenario where IAG finances the purchase of Aer Lingus by increasing its share capital via the issue and sale of additionally created stock to Qatar Airways? Even if it doesn't happen now this sort of progression has to be a long term strategic possibility with very deep and interesting implications.

Dutch Poacher turns Gamekeeper.

Ever since 1948 KLM, backed by the Netherlands Government and in close co-operation with Amsterdam's Schipol Airport specifically designed for connecting traffic, has punched above its weight in the world. This is largely thanks to a superbly conceived and executed policy based on sixth freedom business gained through generous bilaterals. Amsterdam's single terminal ,easy to use, home hub has been developed and constantly updated. It has almost uniquely over 60 years kept ahead of actual demand and has as result always been Europe's airport of choice for many travellers. As a bonus, being able to offer international to international connections to the UK has given it an enormous advantage over British based airlines in extracting business from the UK provinces. The recipe was simple. KLM established a comprehensive long haul network fed by short haul spokes to the widest possible range of European and UK secondary cities. It was the prototype model of how to play the international hubbing game. Nobody did it better. With airline, Government and airport authority working hand in hand Amsterdam and KLM have been brilliantly successful in pulling business away from other people's home hubs. All this has required substantial Netherlands Government support in numerous ways including financial.

That's fair enough in the tough rough and tumble world of competition but what if someone else, better placed maybe and with bigger resources comes along and gets even better at it? Seemingly in the Hague that doesn't look so fair.

In response to the avalanche of new  high quality competition the Dutch government,- ironically just days ahead of receiving Qatar Airways' first Amsterdam service, - has said " Enough is enough"  The allegedly "subsidised Gulf airlines are deemed guilty of "unfair competition and will get no more new traffic rights. Maybe the vision of  Milan- New York (Emirates) lookalikes out of out of Amsterdam
is too much to bear.

This is a breathtaking about face by one of the original high priests of the open skies philosophy. Where is that now,-or was that only for an era in which there were no significant challengers?  The whole affair smacks of sanctimonious hypocrisy as do the bleatings on the same subject from the American legacy carriers and Air France and Lufthansa. The subsidy issue, which could be debated for years depending on numerous possible interpretations, is unproven and differs between the three Gulf contenders who also rightly see their accusers as pots calling kettles black. They argue that European and US airlines have from the outset built their own business upon a host of governmental and domestic benefits and arrangements. It can hardly be seen as fair game for a country which has thrived on these and been the master of the sixth freedom business since 1948 to now pull up the ladder.

The geography of many international traffic flows has in any case changed dramatically over the last few years. This is partly down to investment by the Gulf states followed by Turkey and partly to the ever increasing range of long haul aircraft, particularly the big twins with ETOPS clearance stretched way beyond anything foreseen 20 years ago. That has put the Gulf within nonstop range of almost anywhere.

This is not the time for the European or US governments to head for the defensive bunkers. Fingers in Dutch dykes are no answer.  Our consistent view is that the governments must tell their airlines to get out there and compete or take the consequences. That's business.

Oriental Flavours

Some things change quickly,others less so. Terminals around the world have grown and become attractive places, with more space, light and facilities. Some of the things that go on inside and the thinking behind them haven't kept up with the pace.

Arriving at Siem Riep in Cambodia passengers enter a brand new modern building with an attractive temple-style roof. It's a great leap forward. Unfortunately the immigration department could only manage a short hop. At one end of an impressive long counter the newly arrived hand over $30 for a visa. At the other end it is handed back, having been handled by thirteen officials. For the 50 passengers off a Vietnam Airlines ATR 72 it's a slow process. For a full A321 or larger it would be a nightmare.

The ATR  on which we travelled had departed from Da Nang in Vietnam where the aircraft "stop" markings are ahead of the game, with the A350 clearly marked. Just to make sure nothing's missed out, new lines have also been painted for the TU-134 and DC-10. Both unlikely ever to visit again. It does though indicate a time span of 50 or more years.

A bit further north, Hanoi also has a brand new 1 km long terminal opened in January. Visitors from the 1990s will remember a huge and largely empty open ramp and it being perhaps the only place in the world which followed the original Boeing 747 operating manual which specified three open doors and three sets of passenger stairs.Visitors from the 1990s will also remember the highway into town which started off well suddenly became something like a cart track leading to a rickety substitute for the bridge, the definitive one not having been built yet. Now it's all there and the highway sweeps across the Red River. It's all a Japanese project. Far from being empty the new terminal and ramp see 900 scheduled services a week by 34 carriers. The spinal trunk route to Ho Chi Minh City accounts for 270 of these. It is all  a reminder of the sheer volume of traffic flows within the region of which industry observers in Europe and the USA are often unaware.

The number of regional Low Cost Carriers also takes the uninitiated by surprise. South East Asia has seen a mushrooming of 22 from Indonesia in the south to Vietnam in the north, with three or four competing on some city pairs. Unsurprisingly over-capacity is common and profitability difficult but as in Europe these carriers are making air travel a realistic option for many new travellers . Once hooked they are reluctant to go back to the buses. Air Asia, now with 200 aircraft is one of only ten carriers worldwide to have carried 50 million passengers in a year. Who would have dreamed that 20 years ago? 

The quietest country in the region is Laos. Its capital Vientiane also boasts a new terminal. Lao Airlines operates a small fleet of A320s and ATR 72s while the distant corners of the ramp are home to a few Chinese built MA61s and Let410s, neither customer favourites. Two retired Lao Airlines AN 24s also lurk there but gone is the Royal Air Lao Viscount of years ago.

Bangkok's huge glitzy Suvaranabhumi Airport is impressive externally and, on first sight internally although the use of some rather dark local materials makes some areas rather dark and oppressive. Be ready for some very long walks indeed  and don't book tight connections. Strangely it also displays a few retired aircraft including A330s which would be more appropriately housed at the old but slowly re-emerging Don Muang Airport. Thai, owner of almost every variant of every type of airliner available, is slowly rationalising and restructuring in response to new international competition and to the local Low Cost Carriers, Bangkok Airlines, Thai Air Asia and Nok Air. Hence its contribution to the static park. Whatever Thai's problems though, its customer service style is something that most legacy western carriers can only dream of. Its catering in all classes is good and attractive too.

And there's the rub. Wherever one goes on nearly every Asian airline the service ethic and delivery is good and that's not because they are all soft people. Just look at their history. They are not. Many have had very tough backgrounds and still do. No doubt there are bad days for everyone but they don't show it. The Singapore Girl theme so brilliantly introduced by Singapore Airlines in the 1970s stands in the background to all the newcomers' offerings. Bangkok Airlines is outstanding for smart customer friendly staff who seem to be genuinely enjoying doing their job .The ethic is there everywhere and they are a pleasure to fly with. A lot goes into selection ,recruitment, training , keeping everything and everyone refreshed and looking forward. Not all of the newcomers will succeed. Several of  the original  of Asian "national" carriers who swept all before them now teeter on the brink of being labelled "legacy". We will come back to that theme but for now even those seen in Asia as less good are servicewise very good by European or US standards.

 Some of Asia's official world needs to catch up and understand that it too is in the business of serving people. That's less easy when people have signed up as part of a "border force","immigration authority" and that sort of thing. They aren't so keen on having their rubber stamps, threat of handcuffs etc taken away. Asia isn't the only place that hasn't cracked it yet though.


-John Williams-

African Roundup February - March 2015

Sometimes you just get feelings about things. Two recent examples spring to mind.

The first came from a few hours at Johannesburg’s OR Tambo airport and the second from Fastjet’s announcement that it has successfully raised $50 million of additional capital to fund network and fleet expansion.

Let’s take Johannesburg Airport first. The visit to it included arriving on a domestic flight and departing on a long haul international one. It was during the late afternoon and evening peak and usually busy. The total building taking in bits of old and new is long, and in places massive. The finish and furnishings are high quality and bright. Waders are not required in the toilets.Its airside shops feature many top of range brands. Its cafes are busy. It’s like a big terminal anywhere,a true major international airport which just happens to be in Africa. Despite its location just 2 hrs flying from the southern tip of the continent, it offers nonstop flights to more major cities in a wider spread of continents and countries than any other airport in Africa. Apart from home based SAA ,tails of the world come and go, Singapore, Cathay Pacific, Delta, Qantas, Qatar, Turkish, A380s from BA, Lufthansa, Air France, domestic flights by the national carrier plus Comair (BA franchise), Kulula (SAA’s low cost airline) and flySafair, the latest to try its hand in the game.

It is way ahead of its African rivals Nairobi and Addis Ababa, where the national carriers totally dominate, legacy foreign tails are a rare and only the new Gulf and Turkish carriers make a substantial long haul showing. All this may change with an entirely new terminal at Nairobi and a new airport at Addis Ababa but for now these competitors should be examining closely what it is that Johannesburg does and how it does it.

Then there is Fastjet. We still find it very hard to analyse this one. It took to the air in 2012 aiming to be multi based low cost airline operating around and across the continent. It is refreshingly different, foreign owned and managed and with great new ideas. It has just raised £50 million additional share capital to be deployed in “two key areas, expansion working capital and the acquisition of aircraft”. It is looking to expand operations in Zambia, Zimbabwe, Kenya and South Africa. The working capital for that will be the priority for the new money. “An acquisition programme for used Airbus A319 aircraft “will use what’s left over from these working capital needs. So far so good but whatever its intentions the airline has still only got three aircraft and is not yet darkening the skies or ramps of Africa. It’s true, there are signs of hope, especially in Zambia and some useful 5^th freedoms are coming into the picture. Breakthroughs always seem to be imminent .They really need to happen before more working capital becomes spent capital.

Away from the feelings and back in the more tangible world ,Tanzania/Kenya regional harmony was again briefly interrupted in a(nother) cross border spat. In the 3^rd week of March the Tanzanian civil aviation authorities, irritated by Kenya’s footdragging in accepting Tanzania’s designation Fastjet Tanzania on the Dar es Salaam-Nairobi route, cut Kenya Airways daily flights from 6 to 2 with the 737-800 the largest aircraft which could be deployed.  (In the past 767s have been used on an ad hoc basis). There was no prior notice. There were similar shot-in-own foot restrictions on Zanzibar-Nairobi where Kenya Airways carry much of the islands’ tourist traffic. Services from Mwanza on the shore of Lake Victoria were axed altogether. Fortunately after two days the two countries’ Presidents stepped smartly in, clipped a few ears and normal services were quickly reinstated. Other local business and tourism interests had clearly intervened.

 Recently the South African regulator responded similarly to Botswana taking its time in approving BASA-entitled access to Maun. Common sense took a bit longer to prevail but a South African carrier duly appeared on the Maun ramp. Just weeks ago, in January, the AU was calling for the creation of an Africa-wide aviation single market by 2017 (see more below). That’s only two years away and yet we still see these kinds of problems.

Next year comes the opening of the South Atlantic island of St Helena’s first ever airport. The island’s population is about 3,800, down from the 2008 census of 4,255. That’s just 1,000 more than on board Cunard’s Queen Elizabeth when it circles (but does not call) during January 2016.

When Seychelles opened Mahe airport in 1973 the 115 islands had a population of 55,000. A hotel building and tourism boom followed. BA had to kick it off quickly with the Coral Strand Hotel just so that there was somewhere for its passengers to go. The warm seas and unspoiled palm fringed beaches straight out of anyone’s dreams of a tropical island were a huge attraction. It is unlikely that St Helena will follow the same path although it will see special interest individuals and groups.

St Helena’s government has selected Comair, who operate both as a BA franchise and as low cost carrier Kulula, to provide the link to continental Africa with a B737-800 to/from Johannesburg though it’s not clear whether under which brand.  It is intended that RMS St Helena whose operating costs triggered the building of the airport will be phased out though there will still need to be some use of ships to import bulkier items, building materials etc. Flight planning to the very isolated island will require an island holding reserve or fuel or continue Ascension Island, 800 miles away. On mainland Africa Johannesburg is 2,300 miles, Luanda 1370 miles and Windhoek 1,500 miles distant.

Two ends of an African spectrum…FlyDubai has added Hargeisa as its 16^th African destination, Hargeisa . Since June 2009 this airline has grown to a fleet of 45  B737-800s and has another 50 on order. It opened a new destination every 16 days in 2014 and more than 10million passengers have now been carried.  At the other end is Malawian Airlines which started service in January 2014 with a single Q400 operating to Tete, Nampula and Beira in Mozambique. It is now searching for a smaller aircraft more suited to very low levels of demand and there is no sign yet of a burst of growth being instigated by its owner Ethiopian. This will be frustrating to those who expected something more that the reappearance of an Air Malawi lookalike. Malawi and Mozambique, although neighbours along a lengthy border have historically divided by language. Mozambique was a Portuguese colony and Nyasaland a British protectorate and they have had little to do with each other. As result there are few natural travel flows between them.

For the past 10 years Ethiopian Airlines and Kenya Airways have been building up frequencies to China. The number of Chinese visitors to the continent ranging from labourers to early tourists and business people, continues to grow rapidly but until now there has been no reciprocal Chinese carrier operating to Africa, possibly deliberately to allow the African carriers some breathing space in which to grow and earn Chinese currency to help balance the overall flow of trade which is heavily in China’s favour. This will change in June and Air China will operate thrice weekly between Beijing and Johannesburg. This will be worth a few percentage points of revenue to SAA via a codeshare but not do a lot for African airlines.

From the archives …… 70 years ago, as the end of WW2 approached, BOAC flying boats were operating to West Africa.  Three ,nominally 74 passenger, Boeing 314s routed from Foynes, Eire, via Lisbon to Bathurst, Freetown and Lagos switching back on a circuitous trans-Atlantic route to Baltimore, their engineering base.  These aircraft provided welcome extra range above the 500nm of the pre-war British C Class flying boats but despite some unrealistic British optimism the writing was on the wall for even the medium term future of flying boats after the war. While Britain had concentrated on mass production of military aircraft the US had been able to progress the tricycle undercarriage DC4 and Constellation free from the vagueries of depending on suitable expanses of smooth water being close to desired destinations. To most people the contest was over before it began .The future belonged to land-based aircraft. Tail draggers were out too. They just didn’t look right and climbing a pair of slightly heightened kitchen steps to board didn’t compete for glamour against standing and waving to the world at the top of full height stairway on boarding a sleek new truly modern airliner. The 40-seat Lockheed Constellation was already flying the Atlantic and by 1946 it was planned that Heathrow should have no less than 9 runways. Undaunted but against the grain and in a truly British heroic doomed rearguard action Short’s continued with flying boat development at Rochester. In May 1948 their last fling began with the new unpressurised 34-seat Short Solent entering service on the 4-day Southampton-Johannesburg route. For a brief period Cape Maclear on Lake Malawi was included on the route but its location at the end of 100 miles of earth road from the capital Zomba should have been another indication of the future of the “can’t go everywhere” flying boats. So was Lake Naivasha in Kenya, a similar distance from Nairobi. The axe fell on this piece of aviation nostalgia in 1949/50 when first the Yorks and then unsung and often dismissed first modern British pressurized airliner, the Hermes, took over BOAC’s African routes in 1950.

1950-1960 were the years the most dramatic change in civil aviation anywhere and Africa was no exception. Airliners had a very short front line service life. The DC series quickly moved on from the DC4 to the DC 6 and ultimately the DC 7 series. The 1948 Constellation was outdated by the Super Constellation and ultimately the very short lived Starliner. The Comet 1 came and went in just 2 years in the false dawn of jet airliners. The turboprop Britannias arrived in 1957 but were gone by the mid early sixties. Who in Nairobi ,-or anywhere,- could have dreamed when stepping off an unpressurised non soundproofed box body Avro York in 1950 that just over ten years later in autumn 1960 they would be stepping on to a sleek Comet 4 or an unimaginably huge Boeing 707?

1.  EAST AFRICA

African Airline Alliance (Somalia) is new company formed by the merger of Daallo Airlines (Somalia with Dubai Head Office) and Jubba Airways (Somalia with Kenya Head Office and AOC). The fleet comprises 2 A321s, a 737-300, a HS146-200 with 2 ATRs to follow. 

Air Tanzania has added a second leased CRJ100 to maintain capacity while the single Dash 8-300 is away for heavy maintenance

Meanwhile the government’s Public Affairs Committee is looking to create a new national airline, possibly a revamped Air Tanzania, to by-pass Nairobi for tourism arrivals. This a continuation of the decades old story of rivalry and hostility between Kenya and Tanzania. The Tanzanian perception is that given a free shot Kenya and Nairobi will always dominate the East African tourism business. Back in the 1960s tourists arrived in Kenya and were transported by Kenyan vehicles driven by Kenyan guides and all Tanzania got was discounted hotel rates for the few nights on each itinerary when customers crossed into the headline attraction, the Serenegeti and Ngorongoro. It didn’t take long for Tanzania to simply close the border to Kenya originating or destined tourist traffic. It is proposed that that Tanzania National Parks and Ngorongoro National Park would be be ‘strategic investors’. Whether or why they would really want to be or have the spare cash is unclear. A Feasibility Study is already under way.

Ethiopian Airlines is now pursuing the purchase of up to 8 additional B787-8s. That’s an increase to the possible 3 mentioned in January. The aircraft are unsold overweight early production models parked which have decorated Seattle for the last 5 years. Boeing have to be more than keen to get rid of them for almost whatever they can get above scrap value. If Ethiopian can pay around the price of a 737-800 it would be a smart way to get cheap passenger and cargo capacity. The latter would sell well particularly within Africa’s landlocked countries which often experience long backlogs of freight offering. It is unclear how many of these early aircraft, rejected by previously intended customers, are available. Air Austral of Reunion are also understood to be looking at possibly purchasing two.

A new thrice weekly southern Africa B737-800 three point route taking in Gaberone, Capetown and Johannesburg is planned for a 31 June start. No 5^th freedom rights would be sought for points beyond Gaberone and the airline has increased its Addis-Mumbai B787 frequencies to double daily.

The thrice weekly Addis-Entebbe-Goma services planned to start on 10^th February have been deferred.

Fastjet  launched 4 weekly A319s between Mwanza and Kilimanjaro on 31^st March. On the same date some Dar es Salaam-Entebbe services had Kilimanjaro added en route.

Jambojet (Kenya Airways LCC subsidiary) added a leased Q400 at the end of March to serve the coastal points Lamu, Malindi and Ukunda. This introduces a second type to a fleet now totaling 4, the other 3 being former Kenya Airways B737-300. Again we get back to the question, why, other than to erect a barricade against Fastjet Kenya, engage in this distraction when Kenya Airways itself is grappling with security and ebola related threats to its profitability.

Jambojet looks like an unnecessary distraction . Really shedding the costs of its parent while not undermining its revenue could a problem the “Group” could really do without.

Kenya Airways, responding to a downturn in some of its markets has backtracked on its recent expansion of capacity. According to local press reports all four B777-200ERs are to be disposed of, probably followed by the three 777-300ERs which always did look on the large side for a carrier whose hub development would hinge more on frequency and range of destinations rather than big chunks of capacity. If the intention is to move to a single 787 type fleet ,with its potential for growth by using -9s and -10s, that makes sense but they need to exercise the options on the 4 additional aircraft soon. Their big African rival Ethiopian shows no sign of breaking its stride but its circumstances are different. Ethiopian has long been primarily a network carrier relying much less than Kenya Airways on traffic to and from its home hub. Part of Kenya Airways’ recent weakness as a destination is foreigners’ fears about its internal security. These concerns have been growing for some years but the recent university massacre and the UK issuing an advisory against travel to most of the coastal area all the way from just south of Mombasa up to the Somali border has to be another blow to recovery.

Sudan Airways leased two ERJ135s from Kenya.

Rwandair marking its first venture into medium and long haul markets in Europe, Asia and the Middle East is to acquire 2 Trent powered A330s from Airbus. This is an interesting airline, quietly building a network business away from the hassles of the traditional busy East African Nairobi and Addis hubs . They have a useful useful home base just a little to their south and west which gives it a time and ease of use advantage on some potential connecting flows.

2.  SOUTH / CENTRAL AFRICA

Air Madagascar is dropping plans to replace two 737-300s with two RJ85s and instead has ordered a pair of ATR72-600s. A B737-700 will also join the fleet mid-year. 

Air Namibia is planning to launch a Windhoek-Nairobi service.

BlueSky Airlines (DRC) has taken delivery of the first of 4 MD83s. The actual start-up of a purely domestic network is due during the year.

Comair having been successful in the St Helena Government tender will operate Johannesburg to -St Helena with B737-800 once the new airport opens in 2016.

EC Air (Congo Brazzaville) launched new routes to Libreville via Pointe Noire on 9^th March and thrice weekly Brazzaville-Bamako-Dakar on 22^nd March.

flyafrica.com (South Africa) has indicated Mozambique, Malawi, and Gabon plus Benin and Chad as target bases in addition to the existing one in Zimbabwe. Approvals for services to Namibia and Zambia from Johannesburg remain pending.

Malawian Airlines plans a fleet increase with a leased 30 seat aircraft in June to expand domestic flights and reduce capacity on the thin Mozambique routes to Tete, Beira and Nampula where the current Q400 is proving too big. The cross border Malawi- Mozambique market was always going to be problematical. Colonial history put Malawi into the British English speaking group of countries and Mozambique, along with Angola, into the Portuguese sphere . Also Malawi’s first President, Dr H Kamuzu Banda, refused to support the Mozambique FRELIMO organisation in their long fight for independence. As result the countries have had remarkably little to do with each other despite the Mozambique road network providing a land link into Malawi from the ports of Beira and Nacala and from Malawi to Zimbabwe via Tete. Services from Lilongwe to Nairobi and to Victoria Falls are planned for June.

Proflight (Zambia) is to codeshare on three weekly Rwandair Lusaka-Johannesburg  5^th freedom services from 28^th May.

SAA continues to look a less than happy company while it grapples with a number of past legacies. One was the early disposal of the well amortised 747-400s, still going strong in the fleets of several of its big rivals, in favour of the Airbus A340-300 and 600 in particular. This has left it with the relatively young and expensive 340s instead of the cheap-to-own 747s at a time when it could be jumping a generation of long haul types. Juggling with fleets continues with the possibility that it may agree with Airbus to drop 10 A320s and instead lease 5 A330-300s.

The airline hints at dropping all ‘full-service’ domestic and local flights in favour of its LCC subsidiary, Mango, as an element of future fleet re-evaluation. This would risk though handing a large slice of its domestic business to Comair/BA.

On the cargo front the airline is seeking a regional cargo aircraft to replace today’s 4 B737-300F/400Fs.

 A brighter spot was the resumption on 7th March of daily non-stop Johannesburg-New York A340-600services removing the Dakar technical stop. Thanks to the more favourable winds southbound flights were scheduled to be nonstop in any case. Daily Washington schedules via Dakar continue but a cheaper alternative to Dakar is being sought although it is difficult to see a lot of options.

SA Express has received a US$96mn Government guarantee – approximately half being existing guarantee renewal plus half as a ‘going concern guarantee’.

SkyWise (S Africa) LCC launched B737-300 Capetown- Johannesburg flights on 5^th March.

Trans Air Congo (Congo Brazzaville) The Pointe Noire based carrier has had its AOC reinstated. The three venerable B737-200s and 2 B737-300s will shortly resume domestic and regional flying. The leased DC9 will be returned to South Africa. One or more A319s are anticipated later this year.

3.  WEST AFRICA

Air Côte d’Ivoire intends to continue its network growth by launching a Abidjan-Brazzaville-Luanda route in November.

Arik Air launched a four times weekly Lagos-Cotonou-Abidjan CRJ900 service on 16thFebruary.The airline is also considering creating a 9 spoke regional hub in Cotonou

Camair-Co has taken of its second and third MA60. These were ordered in 2012. Until now  European carriers have been hesitant to codeshare on services flown by this type and there is little reason to suppose that this will change.

Goldstar Airlines (Ghana) This start-up has leased an on the face of it unlikely lineup of a MD-11, a B747-300 and a B767-300 but is still waiting for its AOC to be granted.

Mauritania Airlines International withdrew operations to Paris on 22^nd February. Its balance sheet should improve. Domestic and West African regional services by its single 737-500 and 737-700 continue.

Starbow (Ghana) has taken delivery of the first of two wet-leased Q400s for thin domestic routes to release the fleet of 3 HS146s to expand the regional network. 

TACV (Cape Verde) will in June switch its twice weekly B757-200 Boston service to Providence (Rhode Island), the heart of the Cape Verdean diaspora. The airline’s fleet comprises  1 ATR42, 2 ATR72s, 1 B757-200 and a short term leased B737-800.

4.  NORTH AFRICA

Afriqiyah has returned the 2 A320-200s to lessor Air Contractors, Dublin.  The planned lease of 2 A320 from AeroVista, Dubai, has been cancelled before it started.  AeroVista cites security problems in Libya. The lack of recognisable airports now that Tripoli has been “liberated”,- ie reduced to rubble,- could be a factor.

Libyan Airlines has European Commission approval to overfly EU airspace en-route to Istanbul. 

Tunisair is planning twice weekly Tunis-Montreal flights presumably using 2 A330s on order. 

5.  NON-AFRICAN AIRLINES

Air China is to launch thrice weekly B 777-300 services between Beijing and Johannesburg on 18th June. SAA withdrew from the route on 28 March and will code share (ie get a small commission of maybe 5% on sales made under SA flight numbers).

Alitalia , another European airline on the retreat in Africa, withdrew its three weekly Lagos/Accra services at the end of March. These were its only African flights south of the Maghreb.

Condor has been operating a twice weekly B757-200 between Frankfurt and Windhoek since last November.

Emirates is reported to be planning to serve Lilongwe possibly as a variation of existing Harare/Lusaka triangle services. For Malawi’s connectivity to the world they can’t arrive soon enough. The country has long struggled to get good long haul air links and has relied largely on the 2 hour backhaul over Johannesburg or routeings via Nairobi or Addis. Neither of the two latter has the quality and ease of transfer of transfer facilities of Johannesburg or the Gulf airports. Johannesburg though is suffering from perceived increasing rates of transfer baggage loss and theft so a Gulf option will look very attractive for many itineraries.

Fly Dubai is to double frequency to Zanzibar from two to four per week in June. Zanzibar, despite some security problems of its own is being seen as a safer destination that much of the Kenya coast. Away from the holiday industry, Juba and Bujumbura are also to see increased capacity.

Qatar Airways is planning to increase its Johannesburg frequency to double daily in December, operating the second service on a triangular routeing via Durban. It will also launch a Doha-Kilimanjaro-Zanzibar service in June.

Turkish Airlines continued its advance in Africa by starting a five times weekly service to Abuja on 3rd March. Next up, starting in May, will be Istanbul-Ouagadougou-Bamako with a B737-900. Turkish's African destinations will then be up to 39.

6.  MISCELLANEOUS

African Union (AU) at the AU Summit Meeting in Addis Ababa, Jan 2015, 11 (out of 53) member nations (but including Kenya and South Africa) gave a “solemn commitment … to the implementation of the Yamoussoukro Decision towards the establishment of a single African air transport market by 2017”. The AU Commission is charged to “facilitate the operationalization”. The process from here on was not defined. In the meantime, as described above, Kenya continues to do all it can to frustrate Fastjet’s appearance at its airports.

Nigeria. KPMG lists the nation-wide high-speed ‘Naija Rail’ plan amongst the world’s top 100 infrastructure projects. To be part-financed with a multi-billion dollar Chinese loan the 25year project will deliver a 3,200km network and 54 stations. Seeing will be believing. Six years ago we were at Pt Harcourt’s fine multi-tracked station which housed several trains which had not moved for maybe years. The arrival of the first train from the north,-or anywhere,- for a very long time was expected that day. The place was in a frenzy of anticipation but unfortunately we couldn’t wait long enough to see it actually appear. Given that backdrop the Chinese investors could face a bit of a challenge.

Nigeria Ethiopian, SAA and Lufthansa have been shortlisted by KPMG for consideration by the government as a partner for development of another new national carrier. Past portents do not point to an easy task. Many have been called but none has come away smiling.

Uganda Government has announced a US$365m 6-year plan to upgrade Entebbe airport.

World Health Organisation has removed the need for Yellow Fever Certificates for travel between Zambia, Zimbabwe and South Africa. Zambia and Zimbabwe are also trialling a joint visa.

John Williams and Peter Woodrow.