African Roundup February/March 2014

Kenya is in the process of chalking up three significant events.  Kenya Airways’ first B787 has arrived in Nairobi and subsidiary LCC JamboJet has taken to the air. Meanwhile, spurred on by the fire which destroyed the arrivals building and badly damaged KQ’s departure terminal, Unit 2, the airline’s completely new departures building Unit 4 at Nairobi Airport (JKIA) is set to finally open in July. This, which is intended to a major improvement on the existing 1970s vintage buildings will house only Kenya Airways and KLM. It effectively doubles the international departures capacity of the existing semi-circle of terminals/units. These are all joined as one through concourse airside although it isn’t quite clear what the link to the new building will be. At first sight its construction might require the destruction/knocking through of the airport’s only decent airside catering outlet, Java House,but we haven’t seen the plans. See below for more on the airport saga.

With the arrival of the first of 9 B787-8s, of which 6 will be delivered this year, Kenya Airways becomes the second African operator of the type after Ethiopian. It is unclear whether any or all of the existing 767-300ERs will be retained and if so for how long. It must be tempting to keep some if only to provide belly hold freight capacity on regional routes which suffer chronic shortages from the lack of much or any of it on the Embraers. It would though be an expensive way of fixing that problem .

The  787’s arrival celebrations masked the costs and frustrations of the near 3 year delay. Current plans are for it settle in on domestic and shorthaul routes to Mombasa and Dar es Salaam and then start “real” medium and long haul service to Paris and Johannesburg  in July.

CEO Titus Naikuni’s statement that Kenya Airways is a successful international business that just happens to be based in Nairobi, is significant even if not fully grasped or appreciated at home. The expression was first used by a short lived foreign senior manager in 2001 but brushed aside at the time. It is though exactly the right message to be conveying to the world. Kenyan and African brands need to be and can be truly international and as such are exportable to the world. Remember the origins of Kenco,- the Kenyan Coffee Company . There was a time when NAS was one of the dominant caterers at Heathrow. Those three letters stood for Nairobi Airport Services. Further south, South African Breweries, is now part of a global megabrand. It can be done although there is the real problem of ensuring that the origins don’t disappear under what really turns out later to be a foreign takeover rather than merger.

Two years after its originally intended debut, Kenya Airways’ 100% owned low cost carrier JamboJet is now in the air.  With lessons learned from the failure of Kenya Airways ‘ first LCC venture, Flamingo Airlines, back in  2001/ 2003, the new carrier is aimed to  deliver operating cost reductions and increase the Group’s market penetration.  By steadily increasing domestic and regional frequencies it should enable Kenya Airways to progressively reallocate newer and larger fleet types to serve higher yielding markets.  It will also raise the barriers to a profitable operation by FastJet and thereby threaten to deprive them of East Africa’s largest market. FastJet sounded the alarm in 2012 by planning to launch LCC operations in Kenya but the Kenya licencing authorities quickly appreciated the conflict with Kenya Airways’ intentions and have so far kept their obstructive foot outstretched against what they see as a non African opportunistic intruder. FastJet approached setting up business in Kenya with startling naiivity. They assumed a political open door to what they claimed was something new in African aviation and seemed not to anticipate opponents reasonably enough fighting to preserve their domains and every cent of revenue. They must now and expensively appreciate that start-ups in Europe and Africa have different challenges. For the time being they are concentrating on Tanzania and Zambia as bases for business growth and profitability as well as raising more capital to sustain their efforts.

We talked above about the Nairobi Airport story . There is more though. The delays to the renewal of Jomo Kenyatta International has cost Kenya Airways dearly. The airport, its buildings and systems is single handedly hobbling network expansion and as well as deterring existing passengers from using it. If you can change flights in the Gulf, why choose the relative hassle and lack catering outlets comfortable seating areas and decent shops in which to browse in the claustrophobic gloom of Nairobi’s terminal units? The whole airport game has moved on several generations since Kenya last built one. The big bang was when Singapore's Changi opened. Here for the first time was a major airport which people literally went out of their way to fly though. The main complaints were of too little rather than too much time spent there.  People checked in early to enjoy the facilities and in doing so,-good news for the airport,- spent money, often lots of it, while doing so. Since then all over the world new or rebuilt terminals have, the hassles of security apart, just got better and better. Although a big improvement on what has gone before, it isn't realistic to expect Kenya Airways' new unit 4 to get to Changi level. Nobody ever thought seriously about aiming that high or probably why they even should. That fact should provide thought about the necessary level of future ambitions. There is an opportunity in the entirely new and separate Kenya Airways and partners terminal now built in a joint venture between two companies,Anhui Civil Engineering Group and China National Aero-Technology International Engineering Corporation under a £395 m contract due for completion in 2017. The world's travellers will make no excuses for Africa if the moment is not taken. This has to be a first rate , high quality world class facility.

There is something deep in the psyche of many governments worldwide that makes them want to own an airline. In Ghana, breaking Ghana Airways out of West African Airways was almost the first thing the newly independent government did in 1958. The same formula was followed almost everywhere else the moment the colonial flags came down. In the meantime ,led by the UK, most European countries have decided that it’s a mug’s game. Some are still finding the divorce almost too hard to bear though. All of Africa’s bright new ‘national carriers’ were originally 100% state owned. They had to be where not allowed to collapse most still are. Private investors found the whole business of airlines unattractive and it’s still not one most would take a sure thing punt on. It causes many sleepless nights. Since the 1970s though, with the improved economics of modern aircraft and long delayed deregulation of jealously protected traffic rights (In Africa even adjacent British colonies or groups of defended themselves against each other) the private sector has grown. Kenya Airways with its low 29% government shareholding is an example. The airline’s freedom from government control and civil service meddling has allowed it to become a profitable success story.  Freed of its shackles it has truly flown.  The situation is improving but elsewhere in Africa officials still cling on despite evidence that government-owned airlines cost their national treasuries dear. Not one is,or ever has been, profitable. In the past few weeks Air Botswana has received a US$157m bailout .Air Namibia has had a similar US$169m while back in May 2012 once proud South African Airways sought US$745m from its government. What evidence could be clearer and yet despite their previous experiences the governments of Ghana, Zambia and Uganda are again seeking to start new ‘national carriers’.  Jointly the governments of Mali, Niger and Mauretania have a similar plan.  Ministers of Finance should ready themselves for future begging letters.

There is an old saying, ‘If you think safety is expensive; try an accident’.  Effective CAA or DGCA safety oversight guards against obvious safety risks.  Performance tends to improve year by year.  But what is one to make of fraud in the associated field of aircraft insurance, itself a legal requirement?  Reportedly evidence has emerged within Air Zimbabwe of fraud spanning 4 years and possibly USD10m of diverted premiums. Where did that go and how? Where were the auditors? If true, where are the alleged diverters?

1.  EAST AFRICA

Air Tanzania . Yes, they are back! They took delivery of a leased CRJ200 on 8^th March and immediately launched 4 weekly Mbeya services.  Two CRJ700s are to arrive in April/May.  The existing fleet is a Dash8-300 and a leased B737-200. They are already talking of flying internationally to Lusaka and Lumumbashi.(Mar 2014)

Air Uganda has expanded its codeshare with Precision Air to include Kilimanjaro and Dar es Salaam both to be operated with Air Uganda CRJ200s. The Kigali to Dar es Salaam services are to rise to double daily. Their fleet upgrade thoughts include replacing CRJ200s with 700 or 900s (Mar 2014)

Ethiopian Airlines will raise its London services from 6 a week to daily in July. To do so it must have acquired a hard-to-get slot. Kenya Airways, having dropped from ten to seven this summer, is heading in the other direction. Hopefully they sold the slots on at a good price.

Spurred on by the tens of thousands of Chinese working on infrastructure and other projects in Africa, CEO Tewolde Gebremariam is looking at China for more expansion. On 29^th March Shanghai joined the network with 787 services. He states “China will become our biggest single country market” needing pan-Africa accessibility hence our hub building,- vis West Africa (Asky, Lome), Southern (Malawian) and Central (DRC, possible).  (March 2014)

Looking further ahead and in the other direction, the airline plans to launch an Addis-Dublin-Los Angeles service in 2015.

Expansion of the Addis terminal, its seating and catering outlets is essential to make all this possible. Africa’s aspirant hubs must think Gulf.

FastJet has usefully appointed Jimmy Kibati, ex-Kenya Airways, to be GM East Africa.

Meanwhile, especially compared with early expectations and many would say needs, the airline’s route expansion still appears to be pedestrian. Lusaka to Johannesburg services will launch FastJet Zambia in 3 to 6 months. To help business in Zambia along it has signed an agreement with ProFlight Zambia enabling reciprocal thru-ticketing.  ProFlight will cease to fly between Lusaka and Dar es Salaam but will usefully add Lilongwe to the combined networks.

Back at its Dar es Salaam base the airline has upped Mwanza flights to 17 per week including 7 late night flights. Its route structure doesn’t yet offer opportunities for the sort of long overnight sectors which have so enhanced Kenya Airway’s narrowbody utilisation. This makes late night arrivals and early morning departures even more essential.

The airline has confirmed that it is in talks with easyGroup (UK) over long term financing. (Apr 2014).

FlySAX (Kenya) LCC plans the creation of a new LCC, SAX Tanzania, to serve thin domestic routes with 18-20 seat aircraft plus regional points. That won’t please others, notably Precisionair and its 49% owner Kenya Airways or, none would have thought,Fastjet Tanzania. The new GM moves from FastJet.  Don Smith is principal shareholder of Fly540 (Kenya) and FlySAX.  Fly540 is 49% owned by FastJet. All clear then?

Fly540 (Kenya) has launched a claim of ‘anti-competitive behaviour’ against Kenya Airways new LCC JamboJet. The viability of existing carriers will be put at risk is the case. (Mar14)

Kenya Airways current reasons for joy are well covered in our leader above. Less happy for them is the need to inject US$30m into troubled, 41% owned, Precision Air of Tanzania which apart from anything else has been having a tough time against Fastjet.

Its  own low cost subsidiary LCC JamboJet took off on 1^st April with B737s leased fromits parent . The initial network consists of a twice daily Nairobi to Kisumu , five daily to Mombasa ten per week to  Eldoret  with Kenya Airways correspondingly reducing its ‘mainline’ capacity on these routes.  Regional expansion is planned.  Tariff levels start at USD33, including taxes.

 Its next trans- Africa spoke will be to Abuja starting in June. It arrives a nose ahead of Emirates' late July start.  (Mar 2014)

Precision Air in mid-March increased freqencies from Dar es Salaam to Kilimanjaro and Mtwara together with Kilimanjaro to Zanzibar. The scenic route from Dar es Salaam to Entebbe which flies over the Ngorongoro Crater and Serengeti will now be operated solely by codeshare partner Air Uganda (Mar 2014)

Rwandair The new, dual class, Q400 has arrived and the leased Dash8-200 is to be returned.  On 31 March the airline launched 5 weekly CRJ900 services from Kigali to Douala. Abidjan is to follow (Mar 2014)

2.  SOUTH / CENTRAL AFRICA

Air Botswana is to receive USD37.1m ‘recapitalization funding’ from Government, its sole shareholder.  The 2012 loss was US$59m,and 2011 US$61m.  The business has been without a substantive General Manager for more than 6 months.  There aren’t many signs of things getting better.(Mar 2014)

Air Madagascar plans long-haul route expansion to India and China.  Banned by the EU it uses a pair of wet-leased Air France A340s for European services. It also plans to replace one of its two B737-300s. (Feb 2014)

Air Namibia has also received a little help from its sole shareholder, the Namibian Government with a USS44.3m bail-out, or should we call it ‘recapitalisation funding’  for 2013/4 . It is also , even one might say, planning to be back at the Finance Ministry for increasing yearly amounts of US$54.3 m and US$71.3m until 2016-7 after which self-sufficiency is forecast under the current ‘turnround strategy’. (Mar 2014)  

Air Zimbabwe As above, an external forensic audit has revealed a 4 year US$10m aircraft insurance fraud including periods of operations without cover.  Further revelations are anticipated including the whereabouts of a missing B767 engine. (Feb  2014)
 The company’s current outstanding debt now totals US$232m. Could be worse in the circumstances . A Government ‘protection order’ has been granted securing assets from creditors. They would do well not to rely too heavily on that overseas (Feb14)

Air Zimbabwe in seeking to take a bit off pressure of current leasing and operating costs, is proposing to replace its wet lease of a EMB145 with operating one. The busy government auditors are to probe details of the expiring lease.(Mar 2014)

ECAir (Congo Brazzaville) On 31^st March EC Air launched thrice weekly Brazzaville-Dubai services presumably aimed at the frequent flyer traders. This 100% government owned carrier was launched in 2011 with a fleet of two B737-300s and two B757-200s, all PrivatAir wet-leases under Lufthansa Technik care. There are plans for additional 4 aircraft during 2014.  Paris and regional points constitute its network.  (Mar 2014)

LAM (Mozambique) has ordered  three new B737NGs for delivery in 2015-17 (Feb 2014)

The airline talks ambitiously of expanding regionally to include all SADC country capitals and the government has revived the 2012 intentions of creating an autonomous long-haul subsidiary.  (Mar 2014)

In the meantime the airline anticipates delivery shortly of a B737-700 to join its fleet of two EMB190s and a B737-500.

Proflight (Zambia) has signed a codeshare agreement with Emirates. It has also leased a B737-300 to add to its fleet of J41/J32 and C208 (Feb 2014)

In another commercial deal this enterprising substitute for a traditional national carrier an agreement has been signed with FastJet to enable thru-ticketing on their joint network.  FastJet alone will operate Lusaka – Dar es Salaam and at the same time expands its coded network with Proflight’s Lusaka-Lilongwe service. (Mar 2014)

SAA As anticipated whatever form of words is used, South Africa’s government has confirmed that the airline is undercapitalized, has a weak balance sheet and as a ‘state asset it needs support’. In short that means it’s running out of cash. The on-going evaluation of the turnround strategy progress will determine the level of support to be offered. (Feb 2014)

On a happier note ,by the end of the year the airline will have received 8 of the ordered 12 A320-200 on order to replace B737-800s. 10 A321-200s are also on order.  (Mar 2014)

SAA Express has cancelled plans for up to 30 replacement jet fleet. This doesn’t mean that they are not needed. It’s just that Fleet Strategy now falls within the recently unified SAA/SA Express/Mango group. There goes their relative independence and ability to make their own decisions? (Mar 2014)

3.  WEST AFRICA

Air Annobon (Eq Guinea) has replaced one of two wet-leased BAE146s with an RJ85 for its daily Bata-Malabo services (Feb 2014)

Gambia Bird on 30 March launched its Banjul – Bissau, Lagos and Douala routes with wet-leased A319s from shareholder Germania. Their network includes Gatwick and Barcelona (Mar  2014).

Senegal Airlines has returned 2 leased A320s and added a leased B737-300 to its remaining also leased fleet of a single A320 and a single CRJ200.(Mar 2014)

4.  NORTH AFRICA

Afriqiyah intends to resume flying to the EU in May using wet leased A320s.

 On the prime UK route, Afriquiyah has replaced Libyan Airlines with thrice weekly A320s to Gatwick.  The EU ban necessitates use of wet-leased aircraft by both these carriers. In February 2014 the Libyan CAA suspended Libyan Arab flights operated by NouvelAir, Tunisia due to a loss of ATC communications on one flight resulting in concerns about operational shortcomings (Mar2014)

Egyptair  has been having serious problems with falls in incoming tourism numbers due to concerns about local security . As result it has strategically switched its growth objectives to intra-Africa connectivity and is planning a big new fleet order shortly. This is likely to include E190s or CS100s for subsidiary Egyptair Express (Feb 2014)

5.  NON-AFRICAN AIRLINES

Emirates has named Nairobi, to which it flies twice daily, as its 5^th largest African route. Johannesburg leads.  African flights now total 160 a week. Once Dubai reopens in full after the 80 day runway resurfacing programme which will see flights reduced by around 25% from 1^st May to 20th July, this total will rise again with the start of a Dubai-Abuja route. (Mar 2014)

Qatar Airways is to start A320 Doha- Djibouti services from 27^th July. (Mar 2014)

6.  MISCELLANEOUS

Indian Ocean Commission (IOC) is proposing a merger of Air Mauritius, Air Seychelles, Air Madagascar and Air Austral into one regional carrier. Air Mauritius says ‘no’. Culturally the three airlines are all very different and real unification looks very unlikely. (Mar 2014)

Malawi’s  Blantyre Airport suffered sudden closure on 16^th March for emergency repairs to its (narrow) main runway. (Mar2014)

Mauritania, Niger and Mali governments are talking of launching a joint airline (Feb 2014)

Nigeria’s President Jonathan has sacked Aviation Minister Stella Oduah and NCAA DG Capt Akinkuotu  along with the heads of several other agencies (Feb 2014)

Uganda Political resistance is hindering the possible revival of state owned Uganda Airlines. That’s refreshingly good news when read against the above chapter of government-led interference almost everywhere.(Mar 2014)

Zambia Government talks have been held with Qatar Airways and others regarding the creation of a national carrier but Qatar CEO Al Baker is quoted as saying that they are only seeking investment in “carriers with strong synergies with us. We don’t want to get involved in fixing other people’s problems.” (Feb 2014)

John Williams

31 March 2014

Air France-KLM 787 engines. Rolls Rolled Again.

The British engine manufacturer itself  may be the least surprised of anyone that Air France/KLM have chosen GE over Rolls Royce to supply the engines for its order for 25 owned and 12 leased Boeing 787s.

Whenever they have had a choice on a particular aircraft neither Air France nor KLM has ever selected Rolls or any other non American engine manufacturer. They have had to sign up with the British company to power their 25 A350s on order because that's the only engine on offer for this aircraft.  Apart from that and leaving aside the unique case of the UK based but joint venture Olympus on the  Concorde, Air France last bought from Rolls in the 1950s. Then they signed for Darts on their ten 1950s Viscount 700 turboprops and Avons for their early model  Caravelle twinjets. Again neither aircraft offered an alternative. From then until the no-choice A350, Rolls might as well not have bothered to bid. KLM's last non American engine purchases were also back in the 1950s when they had Darts on a couple of F27s and ten Viscount 800s. Once more they had no choice if they wanted those aircraft, both the best in their class at the time.

Now that they have lost the Air France/KLM 787 battle, Rolls Royce may reflect that, other than to keep doors slightly ajar for the future, they may as well have saved the time,trouble and expense and stayed at home. That would have left the way open for GE to extract whatever price and terms they liked for this contract. In fairness though, as sole supplier on the A350 they may have pushed Air France/KLM a little too hard on that deal and this is their reward . But then maybe they believed the 787 was a lost cause for them anyway.

Malaysia 370-Three weeks On.

Three weeks after the disappearance of MH 370 some parts of this very large jigsaw are beginning to come into better focus.

Through the fog , emotions, rumours, millions of words from speculative "experts" and despite continuing uncertainty about almost everything, five things things in particular now stand in better perspective.

First it is doubtful if anyone would have done much better than the much criticised Malaysians in the handling  the public relations aspects of the tragedy. Nobody would ever have got it wholly  right even in the western world of professional spinners and high technology media. In the world of vastly different oriental cultures, western media and commentators in particular have been sharply critical . This stance ignores the reality that  with few facts or certainties to work on and no sighting of the aircraft, it was always going to be a Herculean task to keep such a large number of affected families informed and looked after. Any large gathering of dissatisfied and unhappy people easily takes off in unpredictable or unreasonable directions. It's bad enough when an airline has a delay.  Self selected vociferous leaders and groups thrust themselves forward and vie for dominance. Voices of calm and reason are pushed aside  and go  unheard. When foreign liability lawyers add themselves to the mix additional, unwelcome pressures start to work. They aren't there out of love and sympathy. A general necessity in such situations is to talk to those affected in small , separated groups. It has been impossible to achieve this in either Beijing or Kuala Lumpur , so the Malaysians have had to do the best they could with very large ,increasingly suspicious and hostile, groups. The mainland Chinese in particular have gone deep into denial and see through whole affair as an anti-Chinese act . That doesn't give a lot of chance for calm and dignified mass meetings. The press conferences were lifted to the highest government level to give them the necessary " face" and gravitas. This reached a peak with the Prime Minister announcing this week that with enormous regret the aircraft, its passengers and crew must now be assumed to be lost. His delivery was clear, apologetic, thoughtful and above all sympathetic. From here on though most of the daily briefings, entirely correctly,will be led by the airline although it is likely that anything crucial such as the confirmation that wreckage has been retrieved and identified as belonging to MH 370 will again be subject of a top level government announcement to the families and  the media. Presented with an almost impossible task of simultaneously managing and organising the incoming flow of military, air traffic control and  private satellite data, keeping confidences and protecting sources where necessary and demanded ,then as quickly as possible distilling it all into public statements, Malaysia hasn't done badly.They were not sure footed at the start but once they had a few days behind them they become better organised. Mainly through a lack of understanding about the needs and power of global presentation ,they had a few PR disasters. Allowing people to be dragged out of meetings (probably with the intention of avoiding mass hysteria) was the low point since which with more grip and almost certainly more advice they have done much better. The Prime Minister's own speech would rate as excellent  anywhere.

Secondly the wide and often wild speculation as to what happened  has broadly settled into two possibilities. One is an extremely well planned suicide, with everything done and timed to remove identification of the aircraft's movements, literally take it off radar and minimise to a brief few minutes while crossing the Thai/Malaysian peninsular in the middle of the night any opportunity for any one to alert friends on the ground by using a mobile phone. The other is a serious malfunction probably centred around the front of the aircraft which knocked out communications, oxygen and other systems and left the crew unable to do anything other than try to turn back or towards Langkawi or Kuala Lumpur before they lost consciousness.  Our own money is on the latter. Establishing what did happen will be enormously difficult but in view of the enormity of the event there is every chance of eventual success. Location and recovery of the black boxes won't be easy and will be more of a problem if they are not located before their batteries give out, probably in about nine days time. Even if found ,the Cockpit Voice Recorder -CVR,- which is on a continuous self erasing 2 hour loop will have overwritten the crucial period between the last routine call and the time when the aircraft turned onto its final south westerly course. Forensic technology may still be able to recover something from it. Certainly everyone will want to find and retrieve it if they possibly can.

Next, some mostly unsung heroes are already emerging . First up could still be the two pilots if they do emerge as having had to contend with an unimaginable and impossible situation. Next come the large numbers of airline staff and others who have worked with the families and friends of the crew and passengers and tried to give them the support they need . Then there are the intelligence ,satellite and computer experts , photo interpreters and mathematicians who have bust everything to try to find the aircraft and anything that may have belonged to it. They will not have had much sleep since they first got their calls. Finally there are the crews of the search aircraft and ships. There are internet video clips of the young Australian Orion Commander whose words of  enthusiastic dedication to the job  deservedly went viral .He is utterly on top of his job, loves it and is unstintingly up for challenge of this mission. He radiated confidence and personified professionalism and expertise. He was justly applauded. Interestingly he hasn't been on screen since. Hopefully his superiors were not miffed by his sudden fame. He did a great deal for the image of Australia, Australians, its armed forces and air crew.

Fourthly comes the search operation, its organisation and coordination. Malaysia sensibly delegated this to Australia ,the country nearest to the presumed site of the eventual crash site. Despite being grounded by weather on two days and the US aircraft also having two days on the ground for crew rest (why didn't it bring more with it?) , the patrols have done well in difficult conditions and flying weather. The one disadvantage of aircraft is that while they can see and record things they can't pick them up from the water. That needs ships, lots of them ,and helicopters but the search force has been very short of them. Australia has sent two and China  now five or six, one from the Antarctic and the others from China. Why not more and none from India or well equipped South Africa, around a week's sailing away?

Finally for the future, there are some massive intelligence, technical, and procedural questions and  lessons to come out of all this. All sorts of black holes in radar and communications cover have come to light. Many of them may not be admitted but all will get attention. Then there are the questions of how much automation or ground intervention could do to rescue aircraft in trouble in flight, especially when the crew can't or won't intervene. These are relevant whatever the facts of the MH 370 case. Even if it does turn out to be a suicide case, - and those are the most difficult/even impossible to predict, -most  aircraft losses are not. As in our previous post, technology does have some possible  answers to the situation where the crew can not function or even be in the cockpit. These need urgent examination and delivery. Then there is the question of how to  mobilise and organise a massive international  maritime search in the shortest possible time, what resources are vital and how quickly they, particularly ships and helicopters, can get to the scene.

Britain's High Speed railways,- at last HS 2 begins to slice through the.................

The contents of new HS2 Chairman, Australian Sir David Higgins' , report on the project's best ways forward were announced by the Transport Secretary, Patrick McLoughlin, in the House of Commons on Monday. The news was positive and gave the sense of long overdue new impetus.

Media coverage,which is unfailingly substantial and enthusiastic about anything that is critical of or hostile to the new railway was muted . It mainly focused on the perceived negative but actually very sensible dropping of the link between HS 2 at Euston and the existing HS 1 Channel Tunnel terminus a few hundred  years down Euston Rd at St Pancras. Travel between provincial points in the UK and continental cities is and always will be better and more cheaply met by air services. The idea of these routes being important either to the travellers or HS2 itself has always been a red herring . It is now thankfully shovelled out of the way by Sir David. An underground moving walkway or airport type shuttle train between the two stations is long overdue anyway. A non moving one could and should have been built at least when Euston was rebuilt in the 1960s or even earlier . Little thought was given then to joined up transport , passenger convenience or comfort.

 Sir David's philosophy of "Let's get on and do it", is enough to give HM Treasury and Britain's legions of "Say No To.." campaigners a touch of the vapours. In their worlds "Let's not do it" or the only slightly more subtle "It needs further investigation/consideration/research/looking into." give much warmer and safer feelings. Those who despairingly  follow the Davies Commission's spending several years of expensive "looking into" London and the south East's need for additional runways will be delighted that someone in the transport strategy business is saying "Let's go". It helps of course that Sir David is unencumbered by being part of the British establishment or celebrity world especially those elements  of both centred or with friends in the Chilterns from whence comes much of the vociferous and well heeled opposition. From the noise, vitriol, mis and dis infomation, absurdly exaggerated claims about the effects of a narrow sliver of quiet electric railway one would think that the area of outstanding natural beauty ,if not all of rural Britain was about to be torn apart. It's not. The Chilterns cover a large area between the the Thames and their northern edge. There are plenty of them left after a sliver of a twin track railway has been cut through it and within a year or two of completion it will barely be noticed. The actual building is the messy and noisy bit so the sooner that's done and over the better for all concerned.

Predictably and right on cue some of the leaders of the "Say No To"s, including the Buckinghamshire County Council which has given or pledged half a million pounds to the anti HS2 campaigns, have written to the Times wringing their hands with a string of the sort of one liners they have been pushing out for the past 2 or 3 years. Drearily predictably they use an already discredited Treasury forecast of £73 billion for the project. The actual estimate including trains and a substantial contingency is £ 50bn. The best way of ensuring that figure is exceeded and the total does become unacceptable is, as the protesters  well know, to delay the start of work for as long as possible . This would  let inflation do its work . So would demands for ever more expensive "environmental" protection. The latter would essentially mean more tunnels and cuttings in the Chilterns . The tunnels are particularly environmentally unfriendly because they create air resistance to the trains. This in turn means that each and every one passing through them for evermore consumes more power and costs more to operate.  The tunnels and cuttings also all ensure that the tens of thousands of daily passing travellers are denied the chance to share the delights of the much vaunted declared scenery. How friendly is that?

Refreshingly Hugo Rifkind in a "Let's do it " article in Tuesday's Times concludes ".. for God's sake , build the damn thing or we might as well give up on ever building anything again". We couldn't put it better.

East African Low Cost pirouettes

Just what is happening in the once relatively orderly East African skies ? Every day reveals another twist..........

First there was a single Low Cost Carrier (LCC) when the new British based startup FastJet's owners bought 49% of Kenya's Fly540 at the definitely non low cost price of $83m. Significantly 49% doesn't get its holder control of any business or its policies. Nothing less than 51% reliably does that. This was to be the first step in FastJet's dream of a Pan-African series of similar local airlines spanning the continent. Meanwhile Kenya Airways was already planning to launch its own LCC-Jambojet. Denied rights in Kenya FastJet set up shop in neighbouring Tanzania and started flying from Dar es Salaam. Next, another newcomer ,FlySAX of Kenya, with the same majority shareholder as Fly540, Don Smith, announced the creation of LCC, FlySAX Tanzania, thus entering direct competition with FastJet Tanzania. Next up was Kenya Airways launching JamboJet Kenya which will ultimately compete with both FastJet and  FlySAX Tanzania. Fly540 has now filed a complaint of unfair competition against JamboJet , saying it will disadvantage them. That's a tricky one. Competition is legal and highly desirable but regardless of any arguments about expanding the market etc any newcomer is going immediately to take some business off incumbents. Meanwhile FastJet is establishing FastJet Zambia which before the year is out may well establish a bridgehead in Kenya as Zambia's national carrier or at least using Zambian rights.

All clear then? And for the next pirouette?

-John Williams.

Malaysia 370. Where now and what does it mean for the future?

With the Malaysia 370's disappearance now running through a second weekend  more details of communications are gradually appearing and the intense, often lurid, speculation continues. Little of it is good for the airline, the Malaysian government or for the airline industry in general . It is dreadful for the families and friends of those on board .Whatever the eventual outcome, more failings than successes will be up in lights and there will be a lot of racking of brains, both good and bad.

Our guess is that the cause could still be much less spectacular than some of those currently being touted and more to do with the aircraft and its handling than terrorism or suicides. Whether we are right or not will do little to soothe the nerves of nervous flyers. There can be no satisfactory outcome for them. There will be plenty to worry about whatever the cause. To complicate matters further there are already unfortunate racial or even religious questions/comments in some quarters. That is probably inevitable but should be put aside.

It remains entirely possible that the chain of events started with a progressive failure of communications systems, probably caused by a smouldering fire which could have knocked out the transponder and ACARS automatic reporting system, led to progressive hypoxia at least on the flight deck which was detected only in time for a turn back for the point of departure to be manually initiated before the crew lost consciousness. At that point the aircraft could have continued in the direction it was now facing and carried on flying until it ran out of fuel at which point it would have fallen out of the sky.

Unfortunately as the, CVR,- cockpit voice recorder,- operates on a continuous 2 hour loop unless there are traces recoverable by forensic sciences it will not reveal what happened on the flight deck at the crucial point where the normal track off the north east coast of Malaysia was interrupted.

Perhaps the most significant outcome of the disaster, whatever the cause, will be a focus on new automation as well as calls to fill in any and all gaps in worldwide surveillance of all aircraft in the air. Some governments may though not be too keen on the latter as they would prefer their military aircraft to remain truly off the radar for obvious reasons.

On the automation front there is likely to be a push for simple push one button programmes linking GPS, Instrument Landing and Autoland systems on the line of "Land me at the nearest airport" ,"Take us to and land where we came from (or at destination)". These would be linked to automatic transmissions to Air Traffic Control to keep everyone else out of the way. There have been incidents including the UPS 747 crash at Dubai and the earlier Swissair MD11 off the US coast where these could have saved the day. Fire proofing and containment and provision of individual power supplies to keep the necessary kit functioning whatever else is happening would be essential parts of a package. All this is possible using refinements and adaptations of existing technology. So is takeover of control by the ground. This though is complicated by the possibility of the bad guys figuring out how to hijack the system. Iran claims it has already done so with drones.

From here on ,while backed up by good old fashioned searches by aircraft and ships ,the search for the missing aircraft moves further into the realms, capabilities and politics of advanced hi tech spookery. The USA, UK,China and Russia are notable players in the big worldwide game while in Asia the individual countries have ,as we indicated in a previous post, their own more localised one to play .All face complications about how much or little they can  or want to reveal they know. The channels do now seem to be working though .The Malaysian government and all other parties must not be nervous of where or to what the revelations eventually lead. 

Malaysia 370. Off the radar.

There is a lot going on in South East Asia, but away from the task of finding the missing aircraft there must be great concerns among governments and individuals,- and not only those in the immediate area,- about some so far unmentioned but very significant implications of the complete disappearance of a large civil airliner operated by a reputable carrier in a well populated and much overflown part of the world.

First up are the Malaysian authorities.They are struggling to maintain a clearly led and coordinated response to the intense international media questioning and speculation. Unused to this intensity of attention, they are trying hard to meet the needs of the moment, keep the salivating media happy and at the same time to give the families of the passengers and crew all the support they can. With the the latter they are doing as well as anyone possibly could in extremely difficult circumstances. These people want information and there really isn't any. The Malaysians will be very nervous of subsequent criticism of anything they have or have not done or could have done better . Hence examples of  fumbling and apparent reticence to give some kinds of information.This has led to suspicions that they are not saying all they know. There are also questions about the military's claim and then denial that the aircraft turned back across the Malaysian peninsular. If it wasn't true, why did they say anything? If it was an attempt by the military to move to centre stage in the civilian led handling of the event it was a mistake. The limitations of Malaysia's ability to constantly monitor its own airspace are now very clear as are those of its own forces to mount a major search and rescue operation. This would be true of many countries and emphasises the need for immediate and well  pre-planned regional and global cooperation to mount massive searches almost at the flick of a switch. For the Malaysians now it's an (added ) embarrassment.

Next in line are the governments of all surrounding countries, the holes in whose radar systems, military and search and rescue capabilities are also being laid bare. The realities will be intensively scrutinised, not least by each other but certainly by the USA and China, over the next few months. Questions will arise about the degrees of vigilance particularly in the early hours of the morning and whether they have sufficiently sophisticated equipment and operatives to monitor their skies and approaches. Again some myths about all- seeing systems will be destroyed or severely battered. (Let's not forget though that even in the Cold War Britain at the weekends kept only two fighters on immediate readiness to intercept any approaching aircraft from the direction of the USSR and even now the Swiss Air Force is only available for interceptions 0800-1200 and 1400-1800 on weekdays only.Outside these hours, as recently, they have to call on the French).

Finally there are the superpowers of the US and China. Encouraged by heroic films, official statements, pictures of door knockers from outer space and general hype, people everywhere have come to believe that almost nothing moves on the face of the planet without being observed and recorded by the military and intelligence services of the world's big powers. This notion is now being shown up as flawed. The reddest faces at the end of the saga could be US, Russian and Chinese security chiefs whose capabilities are shown not to be quite as all pervasive as previously believed.  As result we are now likely to see an electronics- led scramble to plug the gaps by nations large and small. There are some good things about that and some less good.

Finally, partly born of disbelief that really nobody anywhere knows at least where Malaysia 370 is, there is some concern that in order to protect and keep methods,sources and extent of surveillance under wraps, one or more players could be holding back vital pieces of information. In this case though anything crucial, at least about the location of the aircraft, would almost certainly be delivered to the Malaysians by one credible channel or another.So far it doesn't appear to have been. That being the case, everyone really is in the dark.