African Roundup December 2014 – January 2015

The African Union Commission has called for a single African air transport market to be
established within 2 years. This comes after persistant lobbying from the AFRAA
secretariat about the patchy progress of the 2000 Yamoussoukro Decision (YD) which was aimed at reducing aviation regulatory protectionism. The envisioned single market would likely add legal
enforcement of the desired free market obligations, ie, a step beyond the current YD provisions.
A time span of 2 years seems optimistic. Liberalization within the 15 member EU spanned 5
years from 1987, with the 1958 Treaty of Rome having already established free market
obligations. With 54 divergent members covering an area many times the size of Europe, speedy
AU progress seems unlikely.

But, slow or not, there is evidence that individual nations are moving steadily towards a more
relaxed regulatory approach. Uganda has in recent weeks granted, unbidden, 5th freedom
rights beyond Entebbe to not 1 but 3 local carriers. Zambia too has granted similar rights to
multiple carriers beyond Lusaka. Southern African nations would be surprised at the extent of
liberalization in West Africa. New Lome-based carrier ASKY has developed a regional network
of 15+ points based largely on 5th freedom rights. Kenya Airways and Ethiopian, as a matter of
strategy, expand their regional networks by adding a 5th freedom extension to existing routes
on a marginal cost basis. But the light remains dim or absent in many regulatory corners of the
continent. Continuous mention by the AU and AFRAA of liberalization benefits and how to
achieve them can do nothing but aid progress.


The role of the Embraer E170/190 in Africa is becoming interesting. Once seen as perhaps too small and certainly short of cargo capacity, it is now operational on both sides of the continent. The cargo question remains and is an ongoing problem but from the aspects of passenger appeal and aircraft and seat mile costs it is performing well. The Embraers's maintanence and fuel costs are substantially below those of the older varieties of 737 which have long dominated African skies thanks to their low ownership costs.
In West Africa Air Burkina is introducing 2 of the type while further north Royal Air Maroc is operating 4 leased E190s . In the east, Kenya Airways is an enthusiastic operator now flying 15 190s. LAM, in Mozambique with 190s is another member of the club and more are likely to join. The cargo problem can be overcome with the occasional misuse of a widebody or the ad hoc charter of any aged freighter that comes to hand but this isn't ideal for the smooth flow of the cargo business and makes shippers more inclined to use routes direct to African destinations via points in the Gulf.

The used Boeing 737 is still in the game though. It is very versatile and remains cheap to buy. It is robust, known to many, or most commercial pilots and engineers throughout the continent. Spares are plentiful and many located almost everywhere. It has the legs for the longer sector and is equally happy with multiple short ones. It is though heavy ,burns more fuel than the Embraer and has too many seats for many routes but it does have that hold space for the large amounts of baggage which traders need and usually cargo space for which landlocked countries in particular have substantial demand.

The jury is still out on whether the Embraer family to is become the new African workhorse or whether the ongoing supply of older, cheap to buy 737s and even A320s will continue to restrict its sales. The same question used to lurk over turboprop ATR and Dash 8 v 737 decisions and when it got down to hard cash the well used 737 generally won.

From the archives ……65 years ago, in December 1949, BOAC introduced the Boeing
Stratocruiser into the fleet. Its double-deck fuselage and deep rounded nose made it immediately recognisable and there was no doubt that it was flagship of fleet. The high level of service on board was equally distinctive. Particularly in the 50 first class seat configuration, BOAC’s signature ‘Monarch Service’ was, along with Pan American's "Clipper" and  KLM's "Flying Dutchman"one of the first examples of airline product branding. BOAC bought 10 later adding another 6 from United Airlines when stuck for capacity following the Comet 1 fleet grounding. Although primarily a cold weather North Atlantic aircraft, its 1958/9 swansong when DC7Cs and ultimately Britannia 312s displaced it from the Atlantic saw it operating some of BOAC's West African services, individual examples carrying respectively Ghana Airways and WAAC/Nigeria Airways titles on their otherwise standard BA liveries. The move was partly down to persistant lobbying from Nigeria and Ghana that while the Britannia 102 had been introduced on the eastern side of the continent in February 1957, West Africa was left with  the more mundane piston engined and certainly not state of the art Canadair Argonauts. After the Stratocruisres' brief  West African reign BOAC operated the last flight of the type in May 1959 on a Accra-Kano-Barcelona-London routing.  Putting aside the false dawn of the jet age with the Comet 1 operations between 1952 and 1954, the late 1950s were the most dramatic period of  step change at any time in the history of the airline business .The modern jet-age was only months away with BOAC's first Comet 4 flying the North Atlantic in September followed by Pan Am's first Boeing 707 a few weeks later.

1. EAST AFRICA
Ethiopian Airlines. Interesting things are always happening here. First is the plan to launch a thrice weekly Tokyo route via Hong Kong with 787-8s in April. This is a tough one. Adding Tokyo behind Hong Kong rather than going direct theoretically lowers the risk on Tokyo as a destination in itself but it adds hugely to costs. Hong Kong-Tokyo is a difficult sector operationally and commercially as many have found ever since it was a standard routing for all airlines from Europe in the 1950s and 60s before direct routes across Russia opened up. Tailwinds can be very strong northbound and reciprocal headwinds southbound on which sector times may be long. The round trip can not reliably be done with one crew doing the round trip from Hong Kong. That means not one but two additional sets of crew to do the additional end sector. Then there are fuel, handling, airport and overflying charges and catering expenses as well as aircraft time related costs. Incremental passengers between Hong Kong and Tokyo are few and far between and yields rock bottom thanks to Cathay Pacific and Japanese airlines' massive frequencies and ability to flex pricing. There is also the factor of Far East passenger's very strong preference for their national carriers. Only one African airline, East African, has tried it,-with Super VC10s in the early 1970s,- and found it financially disastrous. Markets have changed since then but some basics have not.

Unusually for Ethiopian, Singapore was announced for April and then cancelled, at least for the time being. This would have been the first route to the Asian city state direct from Africa and probably at some time still will be. Air Seychelles did have a weekly B757 schedule for a period in the late 1970s offering a connection on to Nairobi. It was well patronised between Singapore and Seychelles but carried very little through traffic and even on the main sector yields were disappointing.

Developing more familiar territory, 2015 will see the progressive increase in Mumbai and Delhi frequencies to double daily. There will also be a new southern India service.

Within Africa Ethiopian will launch a thrice weekly B737-800 service to Goma (DRC) via Entebbe on 10th February. 5th freedom rights are being sought between Entebbe and Goma  and look likely to be granted.

Fleetwise, Ethiopian will continue to add hulls this year by taking delivery of  3 additional B787-8 and 3 B777-300s this year. This will bring the B787 fleet to 13 aircraft.

Not for the first time Tewolde Gebremariam has raised the alarm about the amount of African aviation business carried by foreign airlines. With furrowed brow he points to the percentage currently running at about 80%. More locally he confirms that talks are underway to expand
the relationship with Rwandair, where former Ethiopian CEO Girma Wake is Chairman, to include a stake acquisition. Talks also continue on a possible investment in the DRC.

Fastjet has sold their Angolan company's pair of ATR72s and December saw the company achieve its first month of operating profit.

Jambojet (Kenya) Kenya Airways LCC subsidiary has unsurprisingly been granted its first regional route rights by Kenya. These are to Entebbe, Juba, Kigali, Bujumbura, Addis Ababa, Mwanza, Kilimanjaro, Dar es Salaam and
Zanzibar. Rights from the destination states are unlikely to be a problem .Start dates have yet to be announced. The current networks consists of just domestic routes flown by 3 ex Kenya Airways B737-300s.

Rwandair is planning the early launch of services on the Lusaka-Johannesburg route using 5th freedom rights already obtained.Similar rights have been applied for between Dar es Salaam and Mumbai. Points beyond Bamako are also under consideration on the same basis.

 An additional Q400 is on order together another B737-800NG.

In the meantime, with the regulatory approvals now granted, double-daily
CRJ900 5th freedom services between Entebbe and Nairobi will be launched on 1st February.

2. SOUTH / CENTRAL AFRICA

Air Madagascar has dropped plans to replace two 737-300s with two RJ85s preferring instead to opt for one additional ATR72 and  a more modern B737.

Air Seychelles launched its twice weekly A320 Mahe - Dar es Salaam flights on 1st December.

Congo Airways (DRC) In April the government announced the creation of new national carrier to replace insolvent LAC, Lignes Aeriennes Congolaises, due for liquidation. An unspecified ‘technical
partner’ is to be a shareholder alongside the government and local citizens. Air France Consulting has presented a business plan. A320s and Q400s feature as the preferred launch fleet.

LAM (Mozambique) is talking to Air Austral (Reunion) on a risk-sharing agreement on a possible twice weekly St Denis-Maputo-Lisbon route to be operated by a B787-8. LAM itself is on the EU black list.

SAA continues to face massive clouds. Nobody in the country can envisage a future without this iconic airline ,the second African jet operator (its Boeing 707s were beaten by three weeks  in September/October 1960 by East African's Comet 4s) and its largest. The residual value of its long haul fleet has been written down by  US$84 million and it has secured an additional government loan/guarantee of  US$562million just to enable it to continue trading. That takes the state exposure from these alone to US$ 1.2 billion.

 Details of the new 90-day Recovery Plan have been released . There are two priorities.The first is to ensure that the government renews these‘going concern’ guarantee,-now achieved for the time being, and second, getting implementation of the 2013 Long Term Turnaround Strategy (LTTS) back on track. Continuing ‘cost compression’ and a searching review of internal and external governance issues that hinder progress will be included. The process is intended to be ‘highly visible and closely monitored’.

 As from 12th December the airline moved away from being under the Department of Public Enterprises. Instead it falls under the oversight of the National Treasury itself under the Deputy President. Here it is likely to find itself under much closer scrutiny. A priority will be the completion of the 90 Day Recovery Plan's review of the long haul network and a re-evaluation of fleet plans.

One early action will be the 29th March launch of a daily codeshare to Abu Dhabi flights under ‘Phase 2’ of the Etihad cooperation agreement. Etihad currently fly daily to Johannesburg Speculation that talks are underway on an Etihad shareholding are denied by the UAE carrier and although they have made some interesting strategic investments in the past this one may not be strategic enough to tempt them.

The two unused frequencies under the Nigeria BASSA may be used to launch a route to the Nigerian political capital ,Abuja.

SAA's low cost subsidiary Mango has increased  its Johannesburg-Zanzibar frequencies from 2 to 3 weekly.

SkyWise (S Africa). This low cost carrier is aiming at an operational launch in June this year.

Trans Air Congo (Congo Brazzaville). This Pointe Noire based carrier has added a South African wet-leased DC9 to its similar MD82. Their current operation covers a domestic and regional network operated by three B737-200 and two B737-300s.

3. WEST AFRICA

Africa World Airlines (Ghana) PWC has failed to find a strategic investor but the Hainan Airlines subsidiary is still aiming for a new national carrier joint venture with the Ghana Government.

Air Burkina (Burkina Faso)'s first of two E170 entered service in January, replacing the 2
MD8s and a CRJ200 on domestic and regional schedules.

Air Côte d’Ivoire has launched the A319 on its Abijan-Lagos services.

Gambia Bird (Sierra Leone) suspended commercial flights until further notice on 30th December.
Germania Express is the 90% shareholder and leases the airline 2 A319s.

4. NORTH AFRICA
Afriqiyah/Libyan Airlines and all other Libyan carriers have  been banned from EU airspace due to the
Libyan CAA being “unable to fulfill its mandate as a regulatory body”. To get around the ban and the fact that Tripoli airport has been pretty much destroyed anyway the airline has wet leased 2 A320-200s from AeroVista, Dubai. One will operate from Turkey and the other from Jordan. Vista Georgia's AOC is being utilised. Operational control also lies with them.

Air Algerie is in a legal dispute with Dutch K’Air BV over the sale of retired aircraft. This has resulted results in one of the current fleet being seized in Brussels. A diplomatic incident has ensued.
iMeanwhile the airline has received the first of three ATR72-600 to join the fleet of 12 ATR72-500s.

Egyptair is aiming to return to profitability in 2016, a suitably distant date. Sabre Airline Solutions is to plan the necessary restructuring. 
 In an effort to boost incoming tourism the airline has secured state subsidies to cover flights this
year between Luxor and Aswan and London and Paris.

Libyan Wings has received a second A319 which is to be stored in Malta pending completion of
approvals prior to start-up operations.

Royal Air Maroc has taken delivery of the last of 4 leased EMB190s and plans to operate between Casablanca  and Beijing with an A330 from June.On 2nd June the airline took delivery of the first of 4 B787-8s and is now close to joining Star Alliance whose existing African members are Ethiopian, SAA and Egyptair.

5. NON-AFRICAN AIRLINES

Air China may launch Beijing  to Johannesburg and/or Addis Ababa services in the second half of this year in cooperation with SAA and/or Ethiopian.

Etihad is planning to join the Dar es Salaam fray by launching daily A320 serviceste this year despite Emirates' existing 12 weekly B777 operations which must constitute pretty stiff competition espacially against a narrowbody (that old question again). Expect some pretty silly pricing. Next door the low cost/low fare  Fly Dubai is to launching four times weekly flights to Hargeisa, Somaliland on 5th March. This will be their16th African destination. 

Qatar Airways has added twice weekly flights to Asmara launched to its African network.

Turkish Airlines has suspended flights to Misrata. This had been the sole remaining international link to Libya.

Vuelling (Spain. This IAG company which is emerging as a lowee cost alternative to the company's tow legacy brands, BA and Iberia is planning) eff Jun 2015 plans launch of Barcelona – Accra services in June. These will add to its current Dakar and Banjul services which including those to the Maghreb this gives it 16 African points. Is an IAG pattern emerging here?

Fastjet's parrot gains more feathers

Low Cost Carrier fastjet, the new orangeish, or at least yellowish, thing in the African skies has been interesting from the start. Its economics have seemed to defy the laws of financial gravity, a lot of money has looked as if it were being spent for little gain. Unfamiliarity with the continent has not helped.

Trick or treat? A breath of fresh air in Africa, or a venture destined to fall victim to deeply entrenched and highly defensive attitudes to all who threaten vested national and local interests?

The company and its people were new to Africa, just as Virgin Nigeria had been a decade before it. That company decided to call it a day after seeing the back of maybe £100 million. Unlike Virgin Nigeria, fastjet's Head Office is firmly planted in England rather than Africa.

In a recent discussion with Airnthere, fastjet CEO Ed Winter, CCO Richard Bodin and CFO Nick Caine see a different, more optimistic story and eventual outcome. They are resolute that fastjet will be staying the course and that significant breakthroughs are near.

Just as Virgin Nigeria did not seem to have the well placed right allies who could truly deliver , fastjet have found themselves stranded on rocks they hadn't seen .Did they rely too heavily on parties whose value and influence they over-rated?  There was the initial tie-up with Lonrho whose long experience on the continent they believed could be a key to their pan-African dream. But this company wasn't the continent spanning political powerhouse of the Tiny Rowland days when presidential and ministerial doors swung open at the sound of his footsteps. That had been dismantled long ago and what remained was a much smaller business without the power of the mining interests and the political clout that went with it.

The hoped for rapid growth which marked the takeoff of Easyjet, Ryan Air and other European low cost carriers hasn't yet happened. Key countries, notably Kenya, have proved very hard to crack. This has meant a heavy reliance upon less prosperous Tanzania to provide the initial commercial and operating base.

While the company has provided more continually updated information on its results and traffic growth than any other in Africa, unfortunately so far the black ink hasn't replaced the red.

Africa needs this venture to succeed, but its rejectionist tendencies are strong.  The old core of  state owned national carriers, whether still alive or not, remains an ongoing cloying influence. Governments still tend to hanker after them. Times have been changing though. Nigeria, Ghana, Uganda, Zambia and now Malawi's governments have walked away and let nature take its course. Their old national carriers have gone. Kenya's government sold most of its majority shareholding in Kenya Airways, with 26% going abroad to KLM after BA backed away from bidding late in the day.

Ethiopia has always been Africa's exception. Even in the most difficult days of the Mengistu regime the governments have always left the airline to be run free from political involvement and intervention. As result a robust and  successful business has run ever since it was launched with US Trans World Airlines' assistance. Its DC6Bs started the east-west traverse in the 1950s and it has flourished ever since. Its management is confident, battle hardened, knows its business and has depth.

 Privatised airlines have arrived  across the continent. In a growing number of cases foreign investment and involvement has been welcomed or sought. Travelers in Africa have benefited enormously. Thanks to some very low fares many have experienced air travel for the first time and are reluctant to go back to buses or the almost non existent trains. Networks, frequencies and city pair connections have grown beyond recognition although there are still far too many with less than daily links. Waiting several days for connections doesn't work for anybody in 2015. Addis Ababa and Nairobi have become significant hubs despite creaking airport infrastructure now only slowly being relieved. Private carriers or foreign operators have been granted local traffic rights and have quickly filled in voids left by state owned predecessors.

Ed Winter is determined, declaring that the potential for new, well run,low cost/fare airlines is enormous. The arithmetic is simple he says. "There are 210 million people in the initial six countries fastjet aims to serve. If just 1% fly with us twice per year that's 2.1 million round trips a year and that tallies with a plan for thirty A319s averaging 7 sectors a day."

The challenge is getting from potential to reality. This is where the obstacles come in.

Despite the advantages that ventures such as Fastjet offer, there is not unequivocal enthusiasm for them. Protectionism takes numerous guises and forms. There are usually layers of everything in Africa, many subterranean with few ripples visible on a smiling surface.

To add to the complexity of its task and regardless of any local shareholdings, acquisitions , franchises and involvement fastjet is seen by those at the barricades as foreign. In some places it is therefore acting as a conduit for rearguard reactionary influences, responses and negativity. Even its major operating base,Tanzania hedges its bets .While being happy to host fastjet on the one hand, partly because it puts the country one up on Kenya, something that always pleases Tanzanians, it does not appear at ease without the comfort blanket of a national airline. Hence, despite the presence of PrecisionAir (49% Kenya Airways owned), it has always been keen to see its very own prodigious loss maker Air Tanzania somehow kept afloat. Next door, Kenya, while presenting one of the most modern minded business faces on the continent, has certainly not welcomed fastjet with open arms. Kenya Airways' drive to promote its low cost or at least low fare subsidiary Jambojet has at least something to do with being able to say to the government "Kenya doesn't need a foreign low cost carrier,-we've got our own".


This is an ongoing problem. Nevertheless the fastjet team see light at the end of the tunnel. Originally they considered Kenya, with its established air travel markets and ideal geographical location as its best bet for a launch platform to give it quick access to volume over a good route portfolio. To this end they bought local carrier Fly540 as a base upon which to build a new jet equipped low cost carrier. With Fly 540 came 4 AOCs in Kenya, Tanzania, Angola and Ghana and on the face of it a fairly simple process to achieve its aims. Unfortunately legal wrangles, misunderstandings over Fly540s existing debts and a number of other things meant that things didn't work out like that. Angola owner of heavily defended national carrier TAAG, is a difficult aviation environment at the best of times. The government is protectionist towards traffic rights, restricts remittances of profits and makes import of spares a slow moving nightmare. In Ghana a number of existing small domestic airlines have intervened with the government and there are logs across the road. All these things may well be surmountable in time but each day, week, month costs money. fastjet has not invested in the Fly540 business for a considerable time and has divested itself of Fly540 Kenya. In 2014 it also suspended operations in Angola and Ghana pending restructuring.

That is why Tanzania with its long distance domestic routes, road network limited by lumpy terrain and (so far) the Serengeti National Park in a direct line between Dar es Salaam and Lake Victoria and its decrepit railways has been fastjet's first operating home .It is the only place where things have gone much as per the original plan. Aided by some rock bottom fares, first time flyers have constituted 40% of the market and volumes above that have helped average yields and aircraft utilisation to push upwards. Four international routes, including Johannesburg, have added to the domestics enabling critical mass to be built. Airnthere's view is that if the company had realised how difficult Kenya was going to be and that Angola and Ghana would also be problematical they could have saved large amounts of time and money by starting in Tanzania in the first place and working outwards but one can understand how things looked to them at the time.

There are now two pushes on Kenya and once the Zambia based operation is up and running there will be a third. In the first push fastjet has now been designated by Tanzania as an operator on the Dar es Salaam -Nairobi route and Kenya is due to respond during January. In the second, against the background of Jambojet expanding its network, fastjet has applied for a Kenyan AOC in its own right. A decision on this is also expected in January and there is a feeling that some opinion in Kenya is moving in favour of more independent competition to avoid Kenya Airways controlling capacity and fares. Kenya Airways will meanwhile be arguing vigorously that Jambojet is a standalone company and not just a subsidiary and is at sufficient arms length to make licensing fastjet unnecessary. The airline will also be saying that it needs government to be protecting it at a time when Ebola on the one hand and the terrorism related downturn of Kenya tourism on the other is badly affecting its bottom line.

Despite ongoing frustrations Ed Winter and his team point to new signs of some very positive tail winds.

Under a 2011 protocol the traditional 51% national ownership requirement for national ownership was dropped from Tanzanian BASSAs. The requirement  switched to having its Head Office in the country and that being "The principle place of business". Disappointingly Kenya, with the most thriving civil aviation industry on the eastern side of the continent north of South Africa, has reaffirmed the 51% ownership restriction. Nevertheless fastjet is confident that the new structure of its Kenyan business will meet the requirements.

Also encouraging is the Zambia Government's recent approval of an Air Service Licence for fastjet. It is now said to be viewing the newcomer's AOC application positively, the first stage having  now been completed. The imminent startup of fastjet Zambia promises the establishment of an extensive network based on Lusaka.

In the last few days fastjet has also been granted 5th freedom rights by Uganda to operate between Entebbe, Nairobi, Johannesburg, Juba and Kigali. Reciprocal approvals are yet to be given but the prospect of a pan-African carrier moves closer to reality.

So what do we make of all this?

1) After a long and expensive gestation ,things are looking up for the airline. Being able to properly establish itself in Kenya would be a big boost although competition with Kenya Airways and Jambojet could make it difficult to get yields up and there could be a bleeding match. Kenya Airways' own current financial downturn may limit the amount they can afford to invest in fighting off the newcomer but that can't be taken as a given.

2) Adding a base in Zambia will be very powerful in beginning a multi-country franchise with interlocking networks. It offers another chance to get into Nairobi as a Zambia designated carrier.If the same can be achieved from Dar es Salaam and Entebbe fastjet's presence in Kenya begins to be significant with or without their own Kenya based operation.

3) Ghana and Angola could remain problematical and not worth persuing until a profitable core operation has been built up on the eastern side of the continent.

In conclusion, Africa, its governments, travelers, and airline industry needs fastjet and its impetus for beneficial change. Its tourism and other businesses and industries could all benefit enormously,- and at no cost to themselves. It's an opportunity which if lost could take a long time to come round again. For fastjet it's going to be a question of funds.

A reluctant bride.-Aer Lingus rejects IAG again.

The news that Aer Lingus has again rejected the advances of IAG despite an increased price comes as no surprise.

Difficult though it may be for some "analysts" to grasp, this may not be all about cash. There is some pride and emotion in there too.

When IAG first appeared it was presented in a soft light as a merger between BA and Iberia. This was so as not to frighten the horses in either London or Madrid. There was talk of things like a live link between the AGMs in Madrid and London so that British shareholders would be able to speak and vote without having to go to Spain. That never happened. The BA Chairman at the company's last ever AGM said that BA would remain as British as it ever was, a meaningless statement if ever there was one. This sounded all very warm and cuddly and the vote in favour of "the merger" went though with virtually no comment from the anaesthetised floor.

The actuality though was very different. This was not a merger but the sale of both airlines to a new entity. Despite this, the myth of happy merger persisted and Willie Walsh talked of other major carriers "joining". By this he really meant "selling themselves" to IAG. Cathay Pacific was one target and there appeared to be surprise and certainly disappointment that they didn't leap at the chance of signing up. The reality is that why on earth would they? Cathay is a long standing and independent minded company. Why would Swires and other shareholders give up their direct control of  the high profile flagship business to receive in exchange maybe a few Board seats and, if the other IAG companies did as least as well as they did on their own, a dividend cheque to a higher value than they would have generated independently?

It may be that the Irish have a price at which they won't be able to resist selling their historic national carrier to a Spanish company but they haven't got there yet. Even then it could be that in the background people, and the government in particular, are very loath to see the company fly out of national control. As far as Ireland is concerned once it's gone,it's gone. The green livery and shamrock tails would be just a branding facade.

Britain's annual rail fares angst.

Yes, it's that time of year again.

Britain's rail fares have risen by an average of 2.2%, much in line with real inflation.

At the same time massive new investment continues with electrification of the Great Western mail line and its eastern tributories, the North West Liverpool-Manchester-Preston-Blackpool triangle and a number of other major infrastructure projects. There are also more shiny new trains, albeit mainly for the London-orientated south.

The screams from the media, including some about the average 3% profits being made by the train operators being exported to subsidise rail fares in Europe are both emotional, absurdly xenophobic and indicative of a welfare state-bred belief that cheap train fares are as much an entitlement as other welfare benefits.There is also an illogical underlying belief that it is immoral for anyone to make a profit from providing a public service.  This doesn't just apply to the railways or even transport in general.It also paralyses the essential reform and re-funding of  Britain's National Health service. That though is another story.

The upward drift of rail fares is aimed to reduce the amount of government,- for which read taxpayer,- subsidy to the railways. The doctrine of "User Pays" is not unreasonable. Why should a moorland sheep farmer who never goes anywhere near a train subsidise a much better off London commuter?

Railway and all transport funding is likely to come under review again after the May General Election. With Health, education and foreign aid all red ringed against "cuts" the distorted pressure on other departments grows by the day. Fortunately the Great Western electrification is well under way now and it is too late for the axe to be wielded although it could be misguidedly and short termist "thrifted". The fact that it ends up in Wales is helpful though. Similarly the north western triangle is beyond the point of no return and it also has political significance.The long neglected Midland Main Line may though have to wait until the Great Western is finished and the trans-Pennine, one minute the political flavour of the month and the next left aside, is also vulnerable timewise although both projects will happen at some stage even if after 2020. HS 2 will come under attack, but political nerves need to hold on this one. It has taken years to progress as far as it now has (The glacial movement through Parliament of the Hybrid Bill to enable work to actually start on 2016 or more likely 2017.) and to start the interminable battle against the Chiltern and shires opposition groups  again is as debilitating a prospect can imagined. It must just battle on and get built this time round before rail capacity between London and the north strangles itself.

Most of the road projects announced, or more correctly re-announced for the umpteenth time, by the government recently are a long way from seeing the first shovels hit the ground. The local opposition "Say no To..." groups will be girding themselves and getting armed with evidence of newts, bats and the rest.

Road improvements are not going to remove any of the case for a continuous programme of rail improvements. That being so, the rail commuters in particular are going to have to accept that they will have to pay increasing fares to use the only system capable of getting them to work in the big employment centres, especially London. That won't stop the annual media "Shock, Horror" circus at fare rises time. They need it anyway because it is stuff they can write in advance for 1st January editions without having to interrupt their festive season.

African Roundup- October November 2014

African Roundup     October – November 2014                    

There was a time when South African Airways was all powerful in its southern African domains and could seemingly do no wrong. From the late 1940s it was a dominant player on routes to Europe, usually flew superior equipment compared with its competitors ( DC 4s against Yorks and flying boats, DC7Bs against Constellations, Boeing  707s v Comet 4s). It expanded its reach to the USA and Far East and even in the days of sanctions its levels or service and reliability and the relative ease of use of its Johannesburg hub enabled it to dominate central and southern Africa. Its management was conservative but hard headed and expansionist. Its fleet acquisition policies sound and relatively risk averse. The company tended to stick with what it, its crews, engineers and ground staff knew and what worked and did it very well. Its engineering was world class. All a bit boring maybe but its customers didn’t mind that and many made the detour via Johannesburg just to fly with them.

Then came the new world, both in South African politics and management fashions. Expensive outsiders, with no past baggage or long term interests arrived to ring the changes. In came shoals of Airbuses, including the A340, and out went the Boeings on which several generations of expertise had been built up. The deals looked good but carried immense new learning curves and the associated costs of those. Politically the new South Africa brought the challenge of achieving essential and immense changes in the work force, something requiring time, wisdom and commitment.

At the same time the new South Africa, free of trade sanctions, meant unprecedented waves of new and shiny competition. SAA’s two competitors in Africa, Ethiopian and Kenya Airways have grown out of all recognition and Kenya in particular reinvented itself if a little precariously. They offer much of the continent a plethora of intra-African and intercontinental high frequency connections without time consuming back tracking. Next, to add to the pain, just at the moment when SAA must have thought the brave new world belonged to them, along came the new generation Gulf airlines and now Turkish. With them came the redefinition of networks, hubs and every aspect of customer service and care. Even the American and European legacy carriers look on with open mouths as today’s benchmarks suddenly become last year’s model. Just when you thought you were getting somewhere….

Against this tsunami-like background it is no surprise that SAA repeatedly seems fated to a life of difficulty and turmoil. This is partly the result of its poor geographical position being glaringly exposed and partly due to a plethora of self inflicted woes.

Of the first, being stuck in a cul-de-sac at the very bottom of Africa would always be a problem for an aspiring hub carrier. Inevitably SAA’s network lies very largely to the north plus a bit out along the arms to Australasia, Asia and the Americas. Historically the airline’s reach for connecting long haul traffic has been limited to a 2 hour arc embracing Mozambique, Malawi, Zambia, Zimbabwe, Botswana and (just) Angola with a lot it it driven by a preference for transiting Johannesburg airport rather than Nairobi in particular. Kenya’s ability to lose transfer baggage and the attitude of some of its officials, including security operatives on the lookout for money were much talked about. Now with the Johannesburg passenger and baggage experience deteriorating , Addis and Nairobi improving and the glitzy Gulf airports being another world entirely ,Ethiopian, Kenya Airways, the Gulf carriers and Turkish make a back haul via Johannesburg just unattractive.

 Of  SAA’s self inflicted wounds, the long-running Board turmoil is a fine example. The net result is a carrier with ever deepening debts and its auditors declaring it “not a going concern” . In short  it’s bankrupt.  The declared operating loss for 2012-3 is US$92million. The 20-year Transition Plan, including a request for US$600milion support, presented to Government in April last year has made no visible progress, to the growing frustration of sole shareholder, the Government, in particular new Public Enterprises Minister, Lynne Brown.

Last month 6 members of the SAA Board were replaced en-masse. A few days later the Chairman suspended the CEO who remains ‘on leave of absence’ despite the Public Enterprise Minister directing his re-instatement.  Nico Bezuidenhout, CEO of SAA subsidiary Mango, has now been appointed interim CEO returning to the role he filled last year following the ousting of a previous CEO.  In that first appointment he presented the 20-year Transition Plan to Government with the memorable quote that each of the previous 9 such plans was triggered because 60% of recommendations of its predecessors were never implemented.

Bezuidenhout has moved quickly with the presentation of a draft 90-day recovery plan focusing on a reduction of loss-making routes (all long-haul services are loss-making) and a re-negotiation of aircraft leases, in particular the A340-600s. US$118million annual saving is mentioned.  Fleet renewal with possible A350 and B787 types is a pressing need.  Meanwhile Government has yet to offer cash and other guarantees to enable the business simply to continue trading.  Assuming this is eventually forthcoming the target for the Board and CEO in tandem is to better the historic 60% implementation failure rate. To quote Bezuidenhout “It is challenging”.

Historically the continent’s airlines had a single business model, – That of a national carrier owned by a Government.  Most eventually folded, the pace usually being linked to the degree of Government meddling in commercial decisions and appointments and the rate at which losses were accumulated. Local private operators did spring up but cash difficulties relentlessly  took their toll. Today’s picture has echoes of the past, eg, limping Air Tanzania, but new models are evolving, eg low cost carriers, with Fastjet potentially being the biggest game-changer. The  big gap to be filled is that left by a failed national carrier such as Air Afrique, Nigeria Airways, Ghana Airways and Zambia Airways. The initial hue and cry is always for them to be replaced like for like (and disastrously with the same people and their cohorts, hangers on and the rest who brought them to their knees in the first place). Fortunately the market eventually makes the decision and somebody puts the black cap on. Air Afrique with its 11 individual Government shareholders could never be replaced. Eleven governments agreeing and keeping their hands off decision-making? No chance. Nigeria Airways has the look-alike privately owned Arik but has been denied ‘national airline’ status by Government. Despite some aspirations and even attempts, Ghana and Zambia are without replacements although small privately owned domestic carriers have evolved.  Of most interest, the Zambian Government has granted 5^th Freedom rights to both African and foreign operators to get all the regional connectivity it can at no cost to itself.  Six carriers now operate between Lusaka and Harare. The Ugandan Government has so far followed the same path following the demise last month of Air Uganda by granting regional rights to Ethiopian Airlines and to Fastjet thereby giving Entebbe 4 new regional routes. Governments who fear isolation without a ‘national carrier’ should sleep more easily.

1.  EAST AFRICA

Air Uganda As previously reported, the Board has decided to disband the company citing “irreparable damage to the company’s image” caused by the prolonged UCAA delay in renewing its controversially cancelled AOC plus the granting of 5^th freedom Entebbe-Juba rights to regional competitors Ethiopian and Rwandair.

Eritrean Airlines is wet-leasing an A320-200 to add to its single B767-300.

Ethiopian Airlines continues its expansion with plans to open a route to Los Angeles via Dublin in mid-2015.  Useful 5^th freedom rights between Dublin and Los Angeles are included. This builds further on its Toronto and Washington routes.

 Receiving AFRAA’s Airline of the Year award CEO Tewolde Gebremariam , long time advocate of Africa making the best possible use of its own home grown resources, when receiving AFRAA’s Airline of the Year award urged member carriers to recognise and use skills and services available on the continent, notably in engineering and training, and pressed governments to urgently to free-up reciprocal route rights and frequencies for regional carriers. 

Meanwhile the carrier may be linked with the proposed new South Sudan (niche) carrier.

Fastjet Following an interview with CEO Ed Winter, CCO Richard Bodin and CFO Nick Caine, we will cover this always interesting carrier in a separate post. Suffice it to say they are undaunted by the scale of their task and determined to stay the course.

Interstate Airways (S Sudan) has wet-leased 2 CRJ100 for Juba based operations.

Jambojet (Kenya) Kenya Airways LCC subsidiary plans the replacement of its 3 strong B737-300 fleet with B737-700s, presumably also from its parent, Kenya Airways. There are no signs yet to expand beyond the April 2013 start-up network of Nairobi-Kisumu, Eldoret and Mombasa. This seems to indicate that conceptually it has for the moment at least hit the same buffers as its predecessor, Flamingo, constrained by the parent and an uncertainty about exactly what it is meant to do at least until any competing low cost carrier, notably Fastjet, challenges it in Kenyan cross-border markets.

Kenya Airways. CEO Titus Naikuni retired after 11 years on 31^st October. He has had a good innings. He inherited the airline in fundamentally good shape. It had successfully navigated the September 11^th global downturn, ordered the 777-200s, was about to open up to the Far East, modernised its branding, realistically replaced its regional F class with J class, converted its B 767 J seats to flat beds and embarked on an outward looking programme. His personal presence, well used political and business network and charisma were welcome additions to the role and the profits achieved since privatisation continued.

His successor, Mbuvi Ngunze faces a tougher proposition. Not quite a hospital pass but more a nudge towards the first aid tent maybe, this is certainly not an easy moment to take over after eighteen months as COO .The West African routes are affected by the ebola outbreak, Kenyan beach tourism in particular has been hit by images of insecurity along the coast, the terminal fire destroyed the Nairobi arrivals area and disrupted the hub operation and the Westgate shopping mall shootings frightened many away from the country. Black ink has turned to red. The upsides for him though include the replacement of the mixed bag of 767-300s by new 787-8s with 6 delivered and 3 more to come (time to firm up on a few more?),and  the opening of the airline’s dedicated departure and transfers terminal at Nairobi. Maybe there will be some downturn- driven realism from its unions too?

Network-wise , Delhi has been dropped. As we have mentioned before,- a 7 hour sector in a narrowbody 737-800 may just not be saleable to a market which has other choices.

Precision Air remains determined to solve its own problems. One measure on offer is US$40m in exchange for an equity stake. It is also considering the sale and leaseback of 5 ATRs which could raise up to US$80m.

Rwandair has ordered an additional Q400 and another Boeing 737-800NG added Mwanza on Lake Tanganyika, Tanzania, to its network with a thrice weekly Q400 frequency.

SAX Tanzania .This projected low cost carrier is anticipating an end of year start-up with a single Q400.  The majority shareholder is said to be Don Smith of Fly540 Kenya.

2.  SOUTH / CENTRAL AFRICA

Air Congo (Rep of Congo) is to benefit (?) from an order placed by Government for 3 new Comac ARJ21s to add to its existing fleet of MA60s. So far as we know this aircraft is new to Africa which means that manufacturer support is likely to be needed for some time.

Air Zimbabwe has reached an agreement with SAA Technics for the release of its 2 A320s so enabling them to return to service.

Congo Airways (DRC) In April Govt announced the creation of new national carrier to replace insolvent LAC, Lignes Aeriennes Congolaises, due for liquidation. An unspecified ‘technical partner’ is to be a shareholder alongside Govt and local citizens. Air France Consulting has now presented a business plan.

flyafrica.com (Zimbabwe) Regulatory problems with CAA Zimbabwe caused the first flight to be delayed from of 23 July until to 3rd November. They plan to operate thrice weekly between Victoria Falls and Johannesburg with a B737-500 and then start domestic flights from Harare to Bulawayo and Victoria Falls by the end of this year.

flyafrica.com (Namibia), allied to the above, is aiming to startup in March 2015, first linking Windhoek and Johannesburg in joint venture with Nomad Aviation of Namibia. Flyafrica Ltd, is a Mauritius-based private equity aviation investment group whose aims may not be dissimilar to Fastjet’s.

FlySafair (S Africa) Having met regulatory ownership restructuring requirements this low cost carrier launched B737-400 services from Cape Town to Johannesburg on 16th October and quickly expanded its network to include Port Elizabeth and George .

Kulula (S Africa) This lively low cost subsidiary of Comair has agreed a codeshare arrangement with Air France. A similar agreement was signed with Kenya Airways earlier this year. There is no indication of what Comair’s franchisor,BA, thinks of these arrangements.

LAC (DRC) This company is now believed to be non-operational and in the process of liquidation  by its sole shareholder, DRC Govt, which has back from maintenance the sole aircraft, a B737-200.  Air France Consulting has presented a business plan for a new national carrier, Congo Airways.

Malawian Airlines launched twice weekly Lilongwe – Beira Q400 services on 12^th November. This adds to current Mozambique flights to Tete and Nampula.

Mango SAA’s Low Cost subsidiary is claiming a 2013-14 profit  of US$3.6mn based on a 42% revenue growth.  It anticipates receiving 2 additional B737-800s from SAA and some domestic route growth.  Fleet renewal is slated to start in 2021.

SAA Further to our headline item here are some further details of goings on in and around the airline. First up, Public Enterprise Minister Lynne Brown created an ‘interim board’ removing 6 members and appointing 2 new ones.  Chairperson Ms Duduzile Myeni continues in her role. The future of CEO Monwabisi Kalawe is uncertain. Minister Brown has endorsed the 2013 ‘Turnround Strategy’ but is frustrated with the lack of progress due to limited capital and board in-fighting.

 Meanwhile the Board Chairwoman Dudu Myeni suspended CEO Monwabisi Kalawe and then refused to reinstate him as instructed by Public Enterprises Minister, Lynne Brown. The SAA Board and ‘the shareholder’ then appointed Nico Bezuidenhout as interim CEO. Brown subsequently agreed that ‘due process’ will be followed around Kalawe’s continued suspension. She also directed the airline to appoint turnaround specialists to return the company to profitability restating that Government has no money for bail-outs. Cost effective turnaround specialists with a robust proven track record are thin on the ground. In any case they are seldom a real substitute for a management up to its tasks.

 To round it all off, Interim CEO Nico Bezuidenhout has presented a 90-day Recovery Plan focused on withdrawal from loss-making routes and re-negotiation of A340-600 leases. US$118m potential annual saving is mentioned. “It is a challenge”, he said. Do we hear a sigh? 

Finally, the airline has 2 unused frequencies under the Nigeria Air Services Agreement and talks of using them to launch Abuja as a new destination.

Seychelles Airlines proposed, private, B767 carrier has withdrawn its AOC application pending legal clarification on its use of the word ‘Seychelles’.

TAAG (Angola) Government has signed a 10yr Management Concession Agreement for Emirates to run TAAG. Emirates will have 4 seats on the 9 man Board, including the CEO, but no equity holding. Hopefully the Emirates team will be given a free hand to redesign and run the airline. 

3.  WEST AFRICA

Air Côte d’Ivoire lifted ebola-related suspensions and re-started flights to Conakry, Freetown and Monrovia from 26^th October. Meanwhile the carrier has received two new Q400s. It has options for 2 more.

 CEO Rene Decurey has stated that “Airbus will renew and expand our fleet” starting in 2015 and building up to 10 aircraft by 2017

Air Taraba (Nigeria) has applied for an AOC . They are not alone. 16 other aspirant new carriers have also made applications.

Ceiba (Eq Guinea) has recovered its B777-200LR which was impounded at Madrid in a legal dispute between an unpaid UK road construction company and the Equatorial Guinea government.

Cronos Airlines (Eq Guinea) is awaiting the delivery of an E135. The company operates domestic services between Malabo and Bata and regionally to Cotonou, Douala and Port Harcourt.

Gambia Bird has indefinitely delayed the re-start of its Gatwick-Freetown route due to the ebola outbreak. Flights between Gatwick, Banjul and Dakar continue.

Niger Airlines (Niger) has received a wet-leased B737-200 from Iraq. It has also a wet-leased F50 from Palestine.  The company operates between Niamey and Ouagadougou, Bamako and Dakar.

Senegal Airlines has taken delivery of a Q400 on a 12 month wet lease to add to its single leased CRJ100. The company also wet-leases a A330-200 short term for Hajj operations.

Starbow (Ghana) was temporarily grounded by the Ghana CAA following an HS146 emergency landing. The operating certificate of the remaining 2 HS146 was withdrawn pending airworthiness checks subsequently completed satisfactorily. Nevertheless these 3 aircraft have been put up for sale.

TACV (Cape Verde) has completed the sale and lease-back of two ATR72s. The Government aims to privatise it in 2015.

4.  NORTH AFRICA

Air Algerie The Minister of Transport has announced route expansion plans to including Nigeria, South Africa, Ethiopia, Chad and Djibouti by 2017. 3 more A330-200s are now on order.  The current fleet totals 44 including 6 A330-200s and 22 B737s, mainly -800s. 

Afriqiyah/Libyan Airlines reports indicate that 13 of their 19 aircraft caught at Tripoli Airport during the July militia fighting will not fly again. That total includes the 3 Afriqiyah A330s. Two new Libyan Airlines A330s remain at Toulouse pending delivery. The Afriqiyah order for 2 new A330s is live. Tripoli terminal is all but destroyed and commercial flights have ceased.

Royal Air Maroc is to launch B787 services to Paris and New York in January/February 2015. 4 B787-8s on order and new routes to Nairobi and Dar es Salaam are being planned.

 The airline intends to renew its fleet and expand from 47 to 105 aircraft by 2025.  An A380 might replace the single B747.  B737Max and A320neos are likely to vie for narrow-body orders with SSJ100 and Emb190s contesting the 100 seat orders. Initial RFPs are expected in 2015. For now the airline has taken delivery of the first of 4 leased EMB190s

Syphax (Tunisia) The current fleet, 2 A319s and a single A330, is to grow to 15 aircraft by 2018 including a second A330 in 2015 plus incremental A320s. New York services are planned for 2015 alongside the existing ones to Montreal .Abidjan, Libreville and Lagos head perceived West African opportunities. 

5.  NON-AFRICAN AIRLINES

Air France reinforced its almost unchallengeable superiority on the Paris-Abijan route by replacing B777s with A380 on three of its seven times weekly flights.

Alitalia is hinting at withdrawing its three weekly Lagos/Accra services in mid-2015.

Emirates. Over the next 10 yrs CEO Tim Clark says that the company plans to add 10 new African routes to its existing 22 and to increase frequencies.

Currently the airline is tussling with the South African Department of Transport over its new 4^th daily Johannesburg flight.  The Air Service Agreement allows for the addition but the Department has objected. In the meantime Dar es Salaam frequencies have increased from daily to 12 per week.

Hainan Airlines (China) is seeking to launch Nairobi services in 2015. Hainan is also a joint venture partner in Africa World Airlines of Ghana

Korean Air is suspending its Seoul-Nairobi services for six months from month suspension of  from December 2014 to June 2015.

Qatar Airways launched its A320 Doha- Djibouti route on 27th Oct. Asmara is to follow.

TAP The Sierra Leone ebola outbreak has forced a delay to the launch of its thrice weekly flights to Guinea-Bissau.

Turkish Airlines has re-launched its route from Istanbul to Misrata, Libya but cancelled its November start to Luanda. Once again Angola’s extremely difficult and protectionist authorities have made life difficult. A further ten African destinations are however planned within the next year.

British Airways is reducing its daily 777 frequency between London and Nairobi to six a week. It is not clear whether this is a temporary measure in response to a perceived insecurity-driven downturn in the market or whether it is likely to be permanent. Kenya Airways’ response to the market conditions by downsizing from a B777-200 to a 787 looks the better strategic option. The business market in particular does not like blank days.

6.  MISCELLANEOUS

AFRAA says its Joint Fuel Buying Agreement has saved members US$3m over the past 3 years.

Ghana CAA is considering limiting aircraft age for its airlines following an emergency landing by a Starbow 25yr old HS146.  Nigeria does this at 18 years.

Guinea Bissau’s government has announced its intention to create a new national carrier to resume and stabilize the route to Lisbon.

Kenya’s Mombasa Airport is to be upgraded with a new runway and terminal building. Unlike most current major Kenyan infrastructure projects this is to be done with 85% French funding and 15% World Bank. The financing have been signed. The very optimistic timescale for completion is given as 2 years.

Malawi Blantyre’s Chileka Airport terminal upgrade has ground to a halt awaiting Government payment for work so far completed. The major funding is Chinese major. The 2013 Presidential announcement of a new airport to be built slips to being an aspiration and certainly current traffic levels, and even those achieved before Lilongwe’s “new” airport opened in 1977 do not warrant it.

Malawi’s Govt has yet to find buyers for the ex-Air Malawi ATR42 and 737-300, both 23 yrs old. The newer 737-500 is also stored.

Nigeria will start privatization of federal airports “soon” says the DG, Bureau of Public Enterprises.  The stated aim is to “boost efficiency”.

Uganda’s government has again mentioned re-launching failed Uganda Airlines. This one just bubbles and bubbles. Substantial government funding would be required and unless it were created lean and mean with a minimum level of staff and no wasted expenditure it is unlikely to be more successful than its predecessor.

Regarding traffic rights, the aeronautical authorities are looking to increase 5^th freedom rights for a number of foreign carriers to replace the network of Air Uganda which ceased flying in June.

Plus …

From the archives …… 50 years ago, on 18 December 1964, Ghana Airways took delivery of the first of an intended three improved Standard VC10s, the first overseas sales success for the type. With a flight crew of 4 including a navigator and flight engineer, initially one and for 22 months a second served the Accra-London route. This second , delivered in June 1965 was leased to MEA from April 1967 and, along with most of the airline’s fleet, was blown up at Beirut Airport by Israeli forces on 28^th December 1968. The third was never delivered and instead diverted to British United Airways. Government-owned Ghana Airways was born out of West African Airways following independence, but rising debts and inefficiencies loomed large once the airline was infected by President Nkrumah’s grandiose and profligate plans pushed it beyond its original appropriate and manageable fleet of 2 long haul Bristol Britannias backed by 2 Viscounts plus DC3s and Herons on domestic and regional services. 8 turboprop Il-18s acquired at Government behest from new friend Russia had little to do other than fly a low demand route to Moscow whose main purpose was to rotate the aircraft through there for maintainance. The company never shook off the resultant accumulated debt. The last straw was when the unwise 2004 operation of an AOC-expired DC10 into the USA resulted in a ban from US airspace and the loss of a block of almost guaranteed revenue.  There was no way back.  The airline was liquidated in June 2005.

John Williams

30 November 2014

UK Air Traffic Control Nonsense.

Last Friday, UK's Swanwick centre ,which covers southern England ,experienced a relatively short computer failure.

Fallback procedures were immediately implimented and worked perfectly. Flow rates were restricted and departures from the London area ,particularly Heathrow, were held back. At all times safety was paramount and nobody was in any danger. The position of each and every aircraft was on the screens as normal.  A glitch had occurred and was dealt with a high degree of professionalism, calmness and efficiency and efficiently by people on the ground and in the air. Once the system was back up and running the backlogs were progressed and by the end of the day there was a near normal programme. Even BA ,which tends to reply to disruptions with extensive domestic and short haul cancellations stuck more to "Fly the Plan" than we have seen in recent years. Inevitably for those whose flights were delayed or cancelled it had been a frustrating and in some cases difficult day. Information is always a customer relations problem but usually, apart from explaining the cause, there isn't much to say until a flight has a definite new time or is cancelled. Shouting matches with gate staff or crews on aircraft are entirely unproductive for all concerned. The fact was that the sky had not fallen in, everyone was safe and would be got on their way as soon as possible.

On Saturday morning everything was entirely normal. Any cancellations were mainly due to aircraft and crews being out of position.

One might think that, the causal defect apart, it would have been an occasion for a round of applause. The professionals, controllers, pilots, cabin crews, operations people and others had taken it all in their stride and delivered. Surely a good story?

Unfortunately the media and politicians were on the case from entirely different angles.

"Unacceptable" said Transport Secretary Patrick McLouglin. Why did he say anything at all other than the fact is that those closest to it solved the problems on the day (what could a politician do other than get in the way?)  and he had every confidence that they would now investigate what went wrong and leave it at that. The media were ready with their "Chaos" banner headlines and stories of celebrity chefs texting BA to "get a grip" and things like that. The usual "Heads must roll" theme formed the background and of course calls for independent enquiries.

In a non politicised world the summary would be simply "It happened", "It was dealt with very well" and "Yes, it could happen again but next time the cause will probably be different" and "The people who can and do fix it were on top of it throughout". That lacks the required sensationalism, shock/horror element, celebrity or political angles though.

The one silver lining for the airlines was that it has been ruled that they are not responsible for any compensation for late or cancelled flights on this occasion. Things have at least moved on from the infamous Icelandic volcanic ash saga where totally unjustifiably they had to shell out huge amounts for governmental "No fly" decisions.

What goes round........

Sometimes there's just nothing new in the sky. You may think there is and then it turns out that it's been done before.

KLM has announced that Amsterdam airport is to have a Junior Jet lounge for young passengers travelling alone. This comes as part of a package labelled Bluey. Amongst other things this also offers those up to the age of 12 a smart "crew" badge, a bag of goodies and special meals to order.

BA's predecessor BOAC first dreamed up the Junior Jet tag in 1956/7 with its Junior Jet Club which was launched an impressive and highly prized winged metal badge. Additionally there was an equally impressive and prized hard covered certificate-earning log book to be signed by the Captain. In fact the log book became so powerful in forcing parential choice of airline that in reality and unintentionally it became in a small way the world's first frequent flyer programme. In due course modernisers morphed the Junior Jet Club into a much more populist but less effective Skyfliers Club,the badge became plastic and over time the whole thing lost its allure.It was even advertised on the back of cereal packets. How exclusive and status building is that?

Now nearly 60 years later KLM ,taking over the Junior Jet title, might be about to re-invent a very (low) cost effective sales device. If they develop it further and get it right they may find it a much more powerful weapon than they had imagined. The light blues should raise a glass to the old foe, the dark blues across the North Sea.