Sunday, 23 April 2017

African  Roundup     February - March 2017

Here we go again. It’s Nigeria, one of Africa’s biggest economies, full of talented business people and deal makers, and a place, Lagos, which should be the aviation Dubai of Africa. The departure boards should be showing multiple flights to destinations all over the continent. The ramp should be home to rank upon rank of tails belonging to dominant home based airline and see the comings and goings of a myriad of foreign operators. But it’s not like that and never has been. Never mind the Gulf fraternity, where is even the western Africa equivalent of Ethiopian or Kenya Airways in its hopefully only suspended heyday a few years back?  Every now and then a Nigerian airline pokes its nose above the lower clouds and looks as if it could move into the long term big time. From right back in the late 1950s various incarnations of Nigeria Airways came and went. Early on BA was involved in various forms, and others came and went. More recently Virgin Nigeria thought it could make a go of it but never really got the hang of how to get truly embedded and do business in the country with its layer upon layer of vested interests and politics. Then there was Arik whose smart livery appeared on the London and other longer haul routes. Could this be the one?

Not so say the financial people and in February the airline, Nigeria’s largest, was placed into receivership by the Government. AMCON (Asset Management Corp, Nigeria) sacked the Board and put new management into place taking over the day-to-day. KPMG is to conduct a forensic audit. Cash shortages are at a critical level.  It appears that staff haven’t been paid, nor suppliers nor leases. “threatening not only the future of the company but that of Nigerian aviation”.  How big is the problem? Sums of several multiples of US$100million are variously reported. AMCON cites “poor corporate governance” as the cause. What’s that in bald terms? Debt recovery will be pursued from Arik’s assets.  Amongst the immediate changes the nominal fleet of 23 aircraft has been reduced to an operational 10 with  the flagship Johannesburg and London services immediately halted.  Another Nigerian operator Aero Contractors which was at one time the domestic airline of choice by those wishing to travel reasonably to time is also controlled by AMCON. In March AMCON set in motion a 900 staff reduction exercise deeming the current 1,500 to be “bloated” in support of the single operational B737-400. That must go down as 2017’s understatement of the year so far.

Meanwhile to the south Air Botswana, which should always have been a modest success story and with at times some bright ideas also continues its search for a bright new dawn. The Botswana Government is again seeking to ‘privatise’ the airline.  As 100% shareholder Government has sought several times in the past 15 years to ease its financial burden in maintaining the small loss-making national carrier but at the same time it’s very reluctant to grasp essential nettles. Talk about reducing staff to a minimum and eyes glaze over. All sorts of things get in the way of sorting out what should be a simple schedule flown by a lean fleet and with as few staff as possible regardless of who they are related to. So what’s happening this time?  The approach is new. Expressions of Interest are again sought but this time via a  “Tell us how you would like to be involved and what you would do ” approach.  Nothing is prescribed but Government clearly wants to see cash injected, but not at the expense of losing overall control.

Before the deadline Comair declared an interest citing mutual benefits in merging operations and processes but not necessarily putting in cash.  Comair is very focused on cash and isn’t up for losing any. SA Airlink made an almost identical approach in 2008 but Government eventually rejected the draft agreement.  Amongst other unpalatables would have been the subsuming of Air Botswana reservations and revenue accounting into SAA systems in Johannesburg. This was deemed unacceptable, as was the side effect of staff reductions. The idea of the Airlink based endorsed brand style of livery crossed a line too.  National pride, identity and ownership of assets invariably loom large in such negotiations, particularly so for small countries. By the 27 February deadline 17 responses were logged with the early stages of evaluation now underway. What these might be is anybody’s guess but the same show stoppers almost certainly remain. Meanwhile the replacement of the ageing but robust and serviceable 4 strong, ATR42/72 fleet has been put on hold.

Back up the continent and over to the east, February saw Nairobi’s JKIA airport achieve US FAA Category 1 status. The Kenya CAA has been deemed compliant with the necessary ICAO safety standards and recommended practices.  This long-sought goal now makes possible Kenya Airways operations to the USA plus, naturally, the same opportunity for US carriers. Kenya Airways has yet to mention opening a route as it continues the search for a new CEO, new Flight Ops Director and a new Marketing Director. It would need a few more 787s too.  In 2009 Delta was within hours of launching a Nairobi operation only for the inaugural flight suddenly to be cancelled.  The airside mixing of both departing and arriving passengers was then, and for many years, the underlying security risk. The new Kenya Airways dominated terminal unit at JKIA has removed this weakness. Kenya joins South Africa, Ethiopia, Cape Verde and Nigeria all with Category 1 status, plus, further north, Morocco and Egypt.   Delta is the only US operator to Africa currently reaching just Johannesburg.  United withdrew from the continent when it dropped Houston-Lagos services last June last year. If you are puzzled by Cape Verde; the country’s large diaspora is centred in Boston to which TACV Cabo Verde Airlines flies direct from Praia.

With all this going on it’s a shame when a high quality investor calls it a day, particularly when it is one which has been a friendly power for good across the continent. That’s what has happened though with the news that AKFED (Aga Khan Fund for Economic Development) is to relinquish its majority shareholding in Air Burkina thereby ending its linkage with African airlines.  Not so long it had aspirations to have a string of airlines across Africa and a start was made with with an original group of 3 carriers, under the Meridiana of Italy banner. These included Air Mali and Air Uganda. In 2016 Qatar Airways bought 49% of AKFED’s Meridiana shareholding, leaving AKFED with just the two African entities. It was probably a case now of double or quit. Quit won. The dream of a thriving, thrusting, rapidly expanding pan African airline or grouping will have to await another day. Is it an impossible dream? Ask FastJet for an update.

AB Aviation (Comoros) has reached agreement with CAA on payment of outstanding debts. Operations , suspended in January, will now resume. 

Ethiopian Airlines. There’s no pausing for breath here. 2025 growth targets include increasing the fleet by 50% to 140 aircraft and annual revenue from US$2.4bn to US$10bn.  Cash frozen in Nigeria and other regional countries is quoted as US$220m.

 Unlike many carriers the Ethiopins hung on in the Abuja market when the runway was closed for three months major repair on 8th March by flying a daily B787-8 to Kaduna.

Despite its long standing interest in supporting potential feeder carriers across Africa, Ethiopian has declined an offer from AMCON Nigeria to manage Arik Air. That won’t encourage other possible sources of support. AMCON now has control of the business.

A new route development not involving its home base, Addis Ababa was the  28 March launch of thrice weekly Johannesburg – Lome with a B737-800 linking into, 26%-owned, ASky’s West African regional network. In the same few days Antananarivo, Victoria Falls and Oslo were also added to the network.

Fastjet PLC  has appointed new Non-Executive Chairman Wally Rashid.  He steps down from the same position with Mango, the SAA low-cost subsidiary, on 1 April.  New CFO Michael Muller is also ex-SAA.  CEO Nico Bezuidenhout re-iterates that the aim continues “to become the first truly pan-African low-cost airline”, with break-even forecast for 4Q this year. That’s quite soon. Then starts the process of recovering the losses racked up to date.  

Jambojet (Kenya Airways LCC subsidiary) is seeking licences from KCAA to operate to 8 neighbouring countries including Tanzania, Uganda and Rwanda. That would get in the way of FastJet. 

Kenya Airways CEO, Mbuvi Ngunze, is to vacate his position by the end of March although he will remain until a replacement is found. That process didn’t appear to be going well, probably not helped by “KQ” not being seen as an expat-friendly environment. Marketing Director Chris Diaz has resigned and is also to leave in March.
 The Kenyan carrier is seeking anti-trust immunity with joint-venture partner Precision Air of Tanzania in which it is a  41% shareholder.  Closer integration of schedules and pricing is the objective.
Precision Air (Tanzania).From July the airline is planning to resume a useful link, bypassing Nairobi ) July with our direct flights between Dar and Entebbe. The route was dropped in 2013. This sector, flying over the Rift Valley the Ngorongoro Crater area and the Serengeti offers some of Africa’s most stunning scenery and outstanding long distance views. An opportunity for passengers to pull up their window blinds, remove their ear phones and switch off their fascinating 200th viewing of “Friends”. A difficult choice for many.
Rwandair added Lagos to its Accra flights, using 5th Freedom rights on 23 March. Next to come is the launch of thrice weekly non-stop A330 Kigali-Mumbai services thereby offering another Nairobi-bypass option to customers in the region. Regulatory delays have pushed back the launch of London A330-200 operations until the end of May.


Air Botswana has challenged the local CAAB’s friendly fire calculation of being owed landing and passenger service charges totalling US$500k. 

Air Zimbabwe is aiming at readmission to IATA in May after having been suspended in 2012 as a result of US$4m Clearing House default.
It is also trying to start a programme to reduce staff numbers, despite the Labour Court simultaneously ordering  the re-instatement of 300 staff ‘fired’ in 2015.
As a way of freeing the long haul flying operation from the drag of historic debt there is talk of forming a new company equipped with 4 B777s or B787s. The source of its funding and other details are unclear, but the usual suspect, China s a possibility.
EC Air (Congo Brazzaville) is contesting the findings of a Government report that management were to blame for its collapse last October.

Fly Blue Crane (S Africa) aimed to present a new business plan to regulators in March. It entered Business Rescue last November.That’s similar to US Chapter 11 protection from creditors. Flying started in Sep 2015 with a single ERJ145 on a domestic network serving Johannesburg, Cape Town, Kimberley and Bloemfontein. Talks continue with potential investors. CEO Siza Mzimela is an ex-SAA CEO.

Proflight (Zambia) has achieved IOSA certification.

SAA A High Court judgement found the carrier guilty of ‘anti-competitive practice’ and awarded USD124 million to Comair.  Travel agents incentive schemes dating back to 1999-2005 were involved. It isn’t known whether the cheque has arrived.


Aero Contractors (Nigeria) 60% state shareholder Asset Management Corp (AMCON) dismissed 900 staff from a total workforce of 1500 due to ‘unsustainable bloated staff costs’. Operational fleet is a single B737-400 and operations resumed in Dec 2016 following a 4 month cash shortage induced suspension.

Africa World Airlines (Ghana) has taken delivery of its 5th ERJ145.  It is predominantly a domestic carrier with a single regional route, Accra-Lagos.  Operations started in September 2012.  Hainan Airlines (China) is the controlling shareholder in a joint venture with Ghanaian institutional investors.

Air Peace (Nigeria) planned to launch Lagos-Accra services in February.  It has ‘licences’ to operate to 5 international points including China, USA and UAE. 
Arik Air Under its new government appointed management the operating fleet is reduced to 10, the money-gobbling New York and London routes are suspended, and KPMG has started a forensic audit. In the short term Amcon is seeking US$31.7m to address ‘deep-seated rot’ within the company.,- ie to keep it flying.
ASKY (Togo) is expanding and aims to add a further 2x B737-800 this year raising the B737 fleet to 6.  The current aircraft are leased from 26% shareholder Ethiopian Airlines whose central African investment, Malawi Airlines has yet to show the same sort of growth.

First Nation Airways (Nigeria) has suspended operations for the second time due to aircraft maintenance and flight crew recurrent training.  The NCAA specifies a minimum fleet of 2 aircraft but the single A320 has been operating under a temporary dispensation.


Air Arabia Maroc launched its Casablanca – Catania route in mid March.

Royal Air Maroc in March plans to start operating and using of 5th freedom rights between Accra  and  Monrovia with a B737-700 to be based in Accra. Kenya Airways and Rwandair also use similar Ghana 5th freedoms. All of these add useful city pairs and frequencies to the region’s patchy network. 5th freedoms are though more vulnerable to changes of policy or fortunes  by their operators. If both points grow to justify direct services to the hime base then they will be swiftly abandoned.
March also saw the launch of routes from Casablanca to Bilbao, Naples and Manchester. Manchesters’ range of international destinations grows apace. Another example of  hub ,- in this case Heathrow,- busting.  Everybody’s at it. Get behind someone elses’ hub and you can attack their business. 

Air India is talking of re-opening its Nairobi and Dar routes.

Atlantic Star Airlines (UK) A B757 test flight to St Helena planned for 6Mar has been postponed for “some months” due to aircraft availability.  Meanwhile, unresolved windshear problems on the single runway mean that there have only been a handful of exec jet type operations.  To compound the island’s problems the reinstated ship has been non operational due to mechanical problems.  Presumably the UK Government experts who came up with the idea of replacing the ship with a windswept airport, over 1,000 miles from any other land and  served by aircraft with limited cargo capacity received their bonuses and promotions some time ago. Maybe they are on an honours board somewhere next to those who cooked up the Tanganyika Groundnut scheme circa 1948. They just chose a spot famous for its lack of consistent rain. The annual average was fine but it just tended to all fall at once,- about every five years. 

British Airways, which has oer some years dropped most of its lower density African routes.-including Harare, Lusaka,Lilongwe, Entebbe, Dar,- has been talking of possible new sub-Saharan routes with long-range narrow-body A321s. Parent company, IAG, has outstanding orders for 170 aircraft including 17 A321s, 89 A320s , 45 A350s, for delivery 2017-21. BA’s final long haul narrow body African service was flown in the mid 1980s with the airline’s last B 707 on the London-Amman-Dar- Lilongwe route. At the time it was thought to be game over for narrow bodies other than for short and medium hauls.


Kenya Nairobi’s airport, JKIA, has been awarded US FAA Cat1 status enabling direct operations to the USA.  The Kenya CAA has been deemed compliant with the necessary ICAO safety standards and recommended practices subject to the Kenya Government passing the Civil Aviation Amendment Bill now before its Parliament.

KLM Continues to advance in Africa with the planned return to Freetown and Monrovia after nearly 20 years, with three A330-200s a week. A new Windhoek route is also to start.

Malagasy Republic’s Government has named Ethiopian Airlines and Air Austral (Reunion) as the final contenders for a 49% stake in Air Madagascar. A decision is expected soon.

Zimbabwe’s Government is talking to China’s Exim Bank for loans to upgrade Harare Airport. Most national projects are now added to the Chinese loan slate pending the day when government discovers that loans are not grants.

John Williams
 April 2017

Tuesday, 14 March 2017

African Roundup

22nd  January saw Kenya Airways celebrate 40 years as the nation’s flag carrier. It was formed in 1977, after the collapse of the once well respected East African Airways and used a hastily cobbled together fleet adding  well used Boeing 720B and 707s to those of the DC9 and F27 fleets which happened not to be on Tanzanian or Ugandan territory at the moment of EAA’s demise. London flights began shortly afterwards, spurred on by the fact that with Uganda and Tanzania in the way, flying to points south had become impossible thanks to these erstwhile partner countries banning all Kenyan aircraft from their airspace. Replacing the pioneering Wilson Airways, EAA had been owned by the governments of Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania which now included Zanzibar. It had originally grown carefully and organically, expanding from an initial extensive subsidized domestic network first to South (Durban) and Central Africa with DC3s. From mid 1957, the UK, India and Johannesburg were added thanks to the low cost addition to the fleet of four ex BOAC Canadair Argonauts. In September 1960, just ahead of SAA’s Boeing 707s, EAA became Africa’s first jet operator with its own two new Comet 4s. From 1964 these gave way to Super VC10s allowing the displaced Comets to reach across to West Africa, Unfortunately the different political philosophies and individual rivalries and aspirations in the three governments after independence lead to increasing friction and tensions over mounting debts. These were largely caused by over enthusiastic expansion to Tokyo via Hong Kong, New York via Zurich and too many points in Europe. The East African Community itself collapsed and the multinational airline was doomed. The echoes of the breakdown still continue. Memories of distrust and hostility towards Kenya in Tanzania and Uganda die hard. As result East Africa, though much improved, still isn’t an open skies zone and undertones of suspicion and protectionism dog the relations between the three countries. Tanzania and Uganda have never liked Kenya’s domination of regional and long haul services or Nairobi as an initial entry point for overseas tourists and business people. Financial difficulties have seldom been far away. Colonial finances were always kept on a tight leash by the UK so there was little money to be thrown at non essentials and what there was tended to go to Kenya which was an actual colony with a big and then growing settler population. Once a German colony Tanganyika, later Tanzania, was a UN Trust territory from the end of World War 1 and Uganda always a Protectorate. A simple minute in an early EAAC meeting that “ No air transport undertaking in East Africa can expect to be remunerative” although talking about the need to subsidise the inter territorial puddle hopping DC3 and later F27 network because of the distances and lack of direct all weather roads was remarkably prescient. However without the albatross of the former largely Tanganyikan domestic services around its neck the newly privatized Kenya Airways, freed from government micro-interventions showed that money could be made. It just wasn’t going to be easy

The really promising and consistently profitable years after privatization in 1996 were under Chairman Philip Ndegwa, who kept the government at bay , so  enabling his contract four man management team from Speedwing Consultancy to do what they needed to do.- including some high level redundancies. Growth and fleet modernization were steady, B 767-300s replacing A310s and these later giving way to four B777-200ERs . That allowed the smaller 767s to continue to grow the long haul network in the classic hub development manner, each new spoke adding to the strength of the others. Simultaneously the B737 fleet grew to do the same for the regionals including trans Africa. The selection of eight B787-8s to replace the similar sized 767-300s was also a good one but then came a step too far,- the investment in three new 400 seat B777-300ERs. Even EAA had steered clear of oversized aircraft. Security fears and general economics then awkwardly meant some flattening in key markets. At the same time direct flights by Chinese carriers chasing the China/Africa labour market arrived. So did ever increasing competition from the high quality, high frequency Gulf airlines flying to more and more African destinations via their highly organized user friendly hubs.  Meanwhile Nairobi’s Jomo Kenyatta International just didn’t keep up. That was before arrivals building burned down. Lastly the choice of Embraer 170/190 series regional jets for much of the shorter haul networks, while economical in capital and operating costs, did nothing for the cargo carrying capacity. They simply they don’t offer the hold volume needed at the hub and that doesn’t help the smooth flow of transfer business through it. Nairobi had once been notorious for cargo backlogs and that’s never good for business.

All this has left Kenya Airways, unusually for Africa, only 23% government owned, with serious  problems. Inevitably hyperactive politicians who have never liked the privatization, especially the foreign KLM’s seemingly rather passive 27% stake, would like to regain effective control and this may happen via government loans, bailouts, guarantees. If it does, the airline management’s problems are likely to increase rather than decrease. Bringing in top quality foreign management assistance will also be difficult. Who would volunteer for it if they saw their freedom of action,- and maybe their longevity in office,- as rather limited? We have noted it before but the best option would be a contract team of at least four people from a major successful carrier, with a successful track record ideally in the Gulf or Far East and a carte blanche to do whatever is necessary to restore the airline’s fortunes. Nairobi is the geographical pivot of aviation on the eastern side of Africa. Its major airport and until recently profitable substantially privatized airline should be great success stories for Kenya.

  Another, though very different January birthday, this time just years, recalled the 2015 AU Summit Meeting in Addis Ababa when 11 of the 53 member nations, including Kenya and S Africa, gave a  “solemn commitment to the implementation of the Yamoussoukro Decision by 2017”.  Almost 30 years have passed since the original Declaration of 1988 with the then dream of total African air transport liberalisation. Implementation has been patchy across the continent: West African governments have achieved more than the East or South, to the benefit of carriers involved.  ASky of Togo operates a successful regional operation based almost entirely on ‘YD freedoms’.  Conversion of Kenya and South Africa would be a significant achievement.

Away from birthdays, Fastjet, seeking yet more cash to maintain operations, has successfully raised a further US$29m via a new share issue. More significantly, Solenta Aviation of South Africa becomes a 28% shareholder, including 2 board positions, in a deal valued at US$ 19.2m. In return Solenta will provide 3 wet-leased aircraft plus other services to Fastjet during a 5 year agreement.  Fastjet is changing shape rapidly. It’s now based in Johannesburg so with Solenta as a new partner it can now be seen as a South African, not East African, company. An increasing focus on their new local market seems likely but where away from the Comair-Kulula/SAA-Mango dominated Johannsburg-Capetown- Durban- Johannesburg triangle could that take them?  The original pan-Africa low-cost vision has perhaps now completely faded along with the vision of 30+ aircraft in the reasonably short term. It has struggled to get beyond being a small business with just 3 aircraft and big debts which even given the fairest of winds will take a long time to recover. Rather than comparing Fastjet’s performance to, say, Kenya Airways’  JamboJet perhaps now it would be better viewed against SA Airlink, its Johannesburg neighbour.  Since 1978 SA Airlink has developed a 36 point regional network and a fleet of 43, mainly jet, aircraft shortly to be upgraded with Emb170/190s.  SA Airlink is a mature and effective business and sets a high bar for Fastjet.

The view from afar …. Economist 28 January, 2017 ……  Nigeria’s No-fly Zone. Government is to close Abuja’s runway for 6 weeks for resurfacing and is hoping international carriers will instead use Kaduna, 140 miles away. The runway at Abuja is dangerously pot-holed; it has failed, says the Minister of Aviation. The current shortages of hard currency, aviation fuel and government’s unwillingness to let foreign firms repatriate sales revenue, has already led airlines to cut routes or pull out of Nigeria completely. Delays and cancellations are legion on domestic airlines. The chaos- inducing tactic used to be to buy tickets and check in for several flights heading for your destination, take the first flight to board and in the quaue to the gate sell the unused boarding passes to touts to re-sell to other bidders. As result no passenger list remotely resembled a correct tally of names and numbers. With enhanced (?) security checks this may be a thing of the past but nevertheless Arik Air has asked passengers to stop attacking its staff. Some things can’t be going well. BA has declined to go along with all this and has simply withdrawn its Abuja schedule for six weeks.


AB Aviation (Comoros) has suspended operations due to a lack of cash.

Air Tanzania The government has paid a US$10m ‘commitment fee’ to Boeing for a B787-8 for delivery in June this year. Meanwhile Dodoma-Kigoma is a new Q400 domestic sector. 

 Ethiopian Airlines started to Victoria Falls, Conakry and Antananarivo in February while adding  Chengdu as a 5th Chinese destination.  It also plans five a week Addis-Stockholm-Oslo, B788s from March.

Fastjet PLC has raised US$29m after placing new shares. Solenta Aviation of Johannesburg becomes a 28% - and the largest – shareholder, with rights to 2 board members. Solenta is to provide and operate 3 aircraft, initially Embraer ERJ145s. 
Jubba Airways (Somalia, but registered in Nairobi) launched Mogadishu – Dubai ops on 26 Dec ember with an A321.  In Sep 2015 Jubba merged with Daallo Airllines of Djibouti.
Sudan Airways Government is continuing its search for those responsible for the sale of the Heathrow landing slot some 5 years, or so, ago.  The cash is also missing. International arrest warrants have been issued.

 The State President has announced tat the airline will receive 14 new aircraft in 2017, benefitting from a Chinese loan. Saudi Arabia involvement is also mentioned with debt restructuring and provision of the aircraft, both longhaul and regional types. Current fleet is 2 A320 and a leased B737-300.  The Sudan’s presence on the ‘EU black list’ continues.

EC Air (Congo Brazzaville) is in talks with Ethiopian Airlines on possible technical and strategic support including a minority shareholding. The airline ceased operations in October 2016 due to unpaid debts owing to ASECNA the provider of Air Navigation Services. PrivatAir, the Swiss provider of the fleet and flight crews plus technical support, has withdrawn. Membership of the IATA Clearing House has ceased.

Lakestar Express (Malawi) has applied for an Air Service Licence enabling domestic and regional operations to start with Beech 1900Ds and perhaps ERJ135/145s. 

Malawian Airlines returns to Nairobi in March with four weekly B737-700s, and a return to Harare once a week with a Q400. This is similar to the Air Malawi Nairobi frequencies in the 1970s and much less than the up to twice daily (Viscount and One-Eleven) to Harare in the same era, forty years ago. The Dar es Salaam route is to be extended to Zanzibar.
Rainbow Airlines (Zimbabwe) launched domestic flights on 25th January starting with Harare-Victoria Falls, with a leased CRJ100 with another to follow. Discussions continue on securing regulatory approvals for Johannesburg and Cape Town.
SAA has taken delivery of the first of 5 A330-300s leased from Airbus.
SA Airlink is starting to replace the 12 strong BAe RJ85 fleet with 13 Embraer 170/190. Delivery of the first 5 aircraft is imminent. 
SA Express plans to stabilise on a 20 aircraft fleet of 90-seat leased jets over the next 5 years.  CRJ900 and E190 were competing and. An order for three CRJ 900s has been placed already.

Air Côte d’Ivoire is planning the  imminent launch of services to Bangui and Kigali.
Arik Air strike action by staff stopped all flying for several days in mid Dec. Agreement was eventually reached to pay all outstanding salaries by end December but rumbling continues.
Camair-Co in mid-December all 5 aircraft were unserviceable. The 767 and 737s had maintenance payment issues and the MA-60 crews were in China for recurrent training. 

 It was decided in January to purchase the 2 B737-700s currently on lease to remove problematic monthly lease payments.  Government is to fund the purchase.  This is the first and perhaps unsurprising step in the 5 year Boeing Consulting ‘stimulus package’ to return the carrier to profitability.

Imo Air (Nigeria) Owerri-based carrier started domestic services on 24 Jan with a Dana Air MD-80 carrying Imo Air decals. Imo Air holds no licences or approvals.  Details of the agreement between Imo State Government and Dana Air are unknown.

Med-View Airline (Nigeria) inaugurated Lagos - Harbel, Liberia on 20th December. Future plans are to add services to Monrovia and Freetown via Accra. 


Air Arabia Maroc plans to launch Casablanca – Catania services in March.

Royal Air Maroc also has plans for March. It aims to inaugurate  routes from Casablanca to Bilbao, Naples and Manchester.


Air Francewill start Paris – Marrakech with the March summer schedules.

Azores Airlines (Portugal) aims to add Barcelona – Cape Verde to the network in June. The airline is the rebranded SATA International, a name which meant little to anyone outside its home area and who didn’t know it. Azores has much more impact.  The network includes European and North America points including Boston and Montreal.  The fleet of 7 is a mix of Airbus types with a single new A330-200 delivered this year. It hopes to be profitable by 2020.

Emirates its belief in very large aircraft seemingly unshaken despite some intense price and frequency competition in the Gulf area is putting the A380 on its Casablanca route in March A380.
 It also hopes to up Dubai-Nairobi frequencies to thrice daily in June but there is some Kenyan Government opposition to this.

Qatar Airways has named Libreville and Douala for launches in 2017-8.

Turkish Airlines has been into Zanzibar from 14th December with a routing via Kilimanjaro. That’s thrice weekly with a 737-900. Ouagadougo va Conakry was due to follow on 30th January. The airline is under pressure and slightly reducing its long term fleet growth due to marketplace impediments and traffic shortfalls. Security concerns have badly dented its inbound tourism market and the Istanbul airport attack has deterred some of its vital high volume transfer business.

IAG’s Vueling (Spain) is reaching across across the Med into northern Africa. It plans an April launch of flights between Valencia and Oran.


Ghana Ten parties responded to the June 2016 expression of interest invitation for the creation of a new joint venture airline. A government committee will now deliberate. That’s always ominous.

Malawi’s Government has said that the pledged 31% private shareholding in Malawian Airlines will be activated only when the airline achieves profitability. Nobody will hold their breath.  Government currently holds 51% and Ethiopian Airlines 49%. The joint venture Malawian Airlines started flying in January 2014 amidst hopes that it would develop a useful and profitable regional network. Despite Ethiopian’s involvement progress has not so far been impressive and it doesn’t look very different from its predecessor, Air Malawi.

Nigeria US Dollar availability problems continue. Foreign carrier local sales remittances are blocked. Aircraft insurance premium payments are being missed. Domestic carriers are defaulting on handling company payments. Jet fuel shortages continue. Blocked funds are estimated as: US$200m

-John Williams-

Wednesday, 8 March 2017

To Fly To.....

BA is to continue its densification policy ,-which will see a 10 abreast layout in its 777 fleet,-  by reducing pitch on its A320 series from 30 to 29 inches.That's the same as Easyjet an an inch less than Ryan Air.

In an accompanying statement the airlines says:" Customers fly with us because we offer quality and value in all areas."

Maybe they were talking about the saleable M&S sandwiches which are proving popular on short haul flights. These may be a bit more pricey than if you buy them in the airport but they aren't extortionate and if the odd quid or two isn't important who wants the fuss of lugging packets of sarnies aboard? The only thing is that if you want the prawn ones we hear they are selling out by Row 8 so to be sure of your choice a quick diversion into M&S landside or other outlets airside at London's T5 could be worth the trouble.

A few people who are taking time off flying BA are some of its new, post 2010,  Mid Fleet cabin crew. They are running a series of strikes in protest at what they describe as impossibly low wages, That's to say ones similar to those of the low cost carriers. "To Fly to Starve" said one banner and some of the afflicted were claiming that they had to sleep in their cars as they couldn't afford the petrol to drive home. Only 50% of Mid Fleet belong to Unite and not all of them are striking so daily operations look little affected. Nearly all long haul flights seem to operating using the non strikers and many of any short haul uncovered are being farmed out to disruption specialist Titan Airways. Some of those choosing, or yielding to pressure (which can be intense and unpleasant as well as long lasting after the event) to strike have only been in the airline a matter of months, maybe even weeks so it is hard to believe that they were under any illusions as to what the package was before they signed up. Strikers lose their staff travel benefits and trust in them being quickly restored when there is a settlement. On this particular occasion they could be disappointed. The BA management doesn't look as if it believes there is anything to settle .Result is the strikers could find themselves out on a limb, either having to accept the corporate rise offered and no change to the baseline from which it is calculated or just leave and find the mythical better job in a supermarket even though that option may not offer quite the same global lifestyle they have been enjoying.

BA,- or its then Chief Executive,- believed that they had bought perpetual love and goodwill from Unite  will by their " Peace in Our Time" deal which threw away most of their cards at the end of the bitter 2010 company-wide BASSA ( sub unit of Unite) strike in exchange for the setting up of the entirely separate lower cost unit called Mid Fleet which would gradually ( very gradually as it turns out) take over the world while the leaving the existing fleets to carry on with their high costs and inflexibilities pretty much as before. It was a mistake.

Wednesday, 15 February 2017


Following our previous post wondering how Trump's general protectionist and Putting America First policies would pan out in the airline traffic rights arena, legacy Delta has been quick to cross his doorstep, claiming that a level playing field, whatever that might be, would protect and add up to 25,000 American jobs. Where that figure comes from is unclear, and even if it were remotely accurate, how about the jobs of all those Americans in the aerospace industry building billions of dollars worth of aircraft for all those nasty foreign airlines? Or the people who work for foreign airlines in the USA?

The idea of forcing long haul American and foreign travellers to enter and exit the USA only at those points and on those routes the US carriers choose to serve is of course possible but in reality ludicrous. The ironic loser would be especially the new generation of highly efficient, smaller widebodies. Think Boeing 787 which even Emirates , hitherto wedded to almost exclusively the biggest aircraft it could get its hands on now appears to be considering. Then there are Trans- Atlantic capable 737s , and , if built a 757 successor.

Hopefully Mr Trump will suggest to Delta and friends that they just go out there and compete with all comers like never before ( and no, Pan Am never did at least ever since the jet age began) with their ground and onboard service and route networks. Depriving a host of US cities of their international gateways and choice of routes to the world would be a real backward step into the dark ages. It would also put the consumer last rather than first. 

Sunday, 22 January 2017

Post Trump,- Closed skies?

In aviation terms the biggest question coming out of Donald Trump's victory is how much he will listen to the bleats of the US pilots' union ALPA and the legacy carriers about,-in old British union terms, the bread and butter being taken out of their mouths by foreign airlines,especially the Gulf ones, Will non reciprocated links be cut back? If so, American cities to whom the foreigners have brought a plethora of new links to the world will lose them and their customers will just have to fly via wherever US carriers choose to fly and just as far as they go. For points beyond whatever gateways are left they would have to find whatever connections they could. The beneficiaries would be the US and European legacy airlines, but particularly the latter as they could offer a range of worldwide onward connections which the Americans couldn't. The big losers would be be the newcomers.

 Alternatively will the interests of these cities and of Boeing from whom the foreigners continue to buy large fleets, especially of widebodies, and of the inbound tourism industry prevail?

We should know at least the initial position before long.

Tuesday, 27 December 2016

African Roundup October November 2016

 November has seen Fastjet celebrate its fourth birthday whilst facing falling passenger numbers and substantial operating losses. No presents there,- and certainly none for the shareholders. One commentator has remarked that they are “chasing a market that doesn’t exist; there is no demand for an Africa-wide LCC operation”. Can this be true? There is some evidence. Of the 53 African countries, South Africa is alone in having mature LCC operations, flying a basic Johannesburg - Cape Town - Durban triangle.  These are domestic routes that have been operating for along time. They have no visa requirements, and all enjoyed pre-existing high volumes at start-up. Fastjet’s highest volume route is also domestic, Dar es Salaam– Mwanza, although this sector was born only out of Kenya's foot dragging four years ago. It wasn’t in Fastjet’s early business plans. Mwanza has never had it so good.

Successful LCC operations depend on ever-growing passenger volumes and high aircraft utilization spread across several routes per day. These criteria are rarely met in Africa. There are both operational and cultural reasons. Almost all European capital cities enjoy multiple daily flights between each other. But these are exceptional in Africa. Sector distances are long and daylight-only thereby limiting multi-sector daily rotations and high utilization. Nairobi – Johannesburg is 1800 miles.  Sectors of this length demand jets, not cheaper to operate turbo-props. In Africa, many neighbouring countries have few historic links between them. This is especially true when neighbours came under different colonial rule and therefore speak different languages. In those cases business, cultural and social links are particularly minimal. Even where there is no language problem there are often local tribal and nationalistic factors at work to inhibit even sensible co-operation. Few Zimbabwean businesses have trading links with Zambia even though it’s next door. Few Tanzanian citizens travel for pleasure or to visit grandchildren in Malawi as cross border relationships are few even close to the boundaries. South Africa does attract regional business people, as well as a lot of illegal immigration from other African countries but neither it nor what is seen as the rather brash Kenya draw in much genuine regional tourism or leisure traffic although both do score on international connections. As result of this limited demand ,legacy national carriers often fly just 2 or 3 days a week between neighbouring capitals with only flights Nairobi or Johannesburg meriting higher frequencies. Luanda for example only has daily flights to Lisbon and (twice) to Johannesburg, Angola having warded off foreign airlines by granting very limited frequencies. West Africa is similar. Underlying demand does exist but it is tiny compared to Europe on which Fastjet appeared to base its business model. The airline looked at the population data and decided that demand was suppressed by lack of city pair links and frequency meaning that explosive growth should follow their introduction. Experience in other parts of the world would say that’s right but what if in Africa it isn’t and they are chasing a pan-African market that doesn’t exist in the right quantities to make it all work?

Air Tanzania, having weathered wretched times for most of its 50 years of life but especially  since the 2003 collapse of the SAA joint venture may yet have a brighter future, albeit with a huge upfront infusion of cash followed by regular supplements to keep it going. Two new Bombardier CS300s have been ordered to add to the existing 3 new Q400s now being delivered. Less encouragingly there is talk of maybe three more larger aircraft and long haul operations. At the start of this year a single, ageing, Dash8-300 comprised the fleet and served a limited domestic network. The new 130-150 seat jets open possibilities for Air Tanzania to re-launch more distant regional destinations. By placing the order the Government has demonstrated support for the recently appointed new CEO and again its nervousness about the long term commitment of FastJet particularly now that its main African operation looks like being much more South Africa rather than Tanzania orientated.

The future dims a little though for other carriers although they are trimming some long haul network excesses. Camair-Co, born just 5 years ago following the collapse of Cameroon Airlines, has withdrawn from Paris operations to concentrate on domestic flying. Competing with Air France made no financial sense and just wasted resources. Likewise Air Botswana has withdrawn from even nearby Harare and Lusaka in favour of domestics and the well travelled Johannesburg route.  Both carriers are chronic loss-makers.  Both too are state-owned, micro-controlled and subject to all kinds of personal and political agendas which get in the way of them functioning as normal sensible businesses. Cutting loss-making routes helps trim costs in the short term but can place small carriers below the ‘critical mass threshold’ important to long-term survival. It’s that critical mass which is the problem. Malawi is another classic example for which even Ethiopian doesn’t seem to have an answer.

St Helena’s quest to get scheduled flights launched continues. Atlantic Star Airlines has flown a proving flight with the robust and very versatile BAe RJ100, this one fitted with reserve tanks. The Lockheed Hercules is another possibility although it’s not of course designed as an airline passenger carrier. Comair’s single visit with a 737-800 from Johannesburg isn’t something either the crew or airline are inclined to repeat in the near future.  Meanwhile the good ship, RMS St Helena, continues to provide a mainland link. How heavy and bulky cargo will be carried anyway once the vessel is retired remains unexplained.


Air Tanzania  The Government has ordered a third new Q400 together with two Bombardier CS300s, – the first such order from the continent, so probably very attractively priced.  Delivery dates have yet to be confirmed. A possible B787 order is also mentioned.  The Government envisages a fleet of 7 aircraft in 2018 flying a network expanded to include Europe, USA and China. That’s a lot of cost. East African Airways and its successors have headed down that path at regular intervals. Kenya has come closest to making an extensive network work but that has stalled recently and is now seeking revival. 

Ethiopian Airlines as part of its aim to be Africa’s most influential airline is talking to governments of 10 countries, including Botswana, Uganda, Congo and Zambia about providing assistance in launching new national carriers. The last airline to do that on a large scale was BOAC in pre-independence days when, through BOAC Assosciated Companies, it took holdings in a range of small local and regional airlines which were to mature into long haul flag carriers. East African, West African, British West Indian, Bahamas Airways, Malayan Airlines and Gulf Aviation were all part of that portfolio. The policy did keep others, notably KLM, out but it is questionable whether it was financially or even politically worthwhile in the long term. Times change though and Africa is Africa. Being under Ethiopian’s wing might just keep struggling and fledgling national airlines their best chance of real lift off especially if local politics and vested interests can be held at bay.

Cape Town frequencies rise to 10 weekly from December. The present daily service is scheduled for 787 operation while the additional frequencies will use B767s.  Closer to home the Juba operation has restarted with Q400, after 4 month pause. Next up should be Victoria Falls flights starting in February. Then there is a B787 route to Stockholm continuing to Oslo from March.

The next fleet decision, expected before the end of the year, will be on ten 100-seat aircraft.  Emb190 and Bombardier CS100 are main contenders. That’s an interesting one,- whether to go for the top end of the EMB 170/190 range or the bottom end of Bombardier’s new CS offerings.

Fastjet Plc as part of its financial manoeuvrings has sold its single, owned, A319 for US$8.0m cash but had to lease in a similar aircraft to cover operations while it grapples with getting EMB series aircraft onto its AOCs.

 The current fleet is 4 aircraft:  3 A319s, one each registered in Tanzania and Zimbabwe plus the leased Bulgarian one . A single leased EMB190 is also based in Dar es Salaam.

Additional funding is already being sought following the raising of £15m in August. Higher than expected (Why? Surely they must all be contractual?) return costs on the leased A319s are blamed plus other business ‘stabilisation’ costs including the ongoing glacial HQ move from Gatwick to Johannesburg . Victoria Falls and  Dar es Salaam to Nairobi and Entebbe fell off the network map on 5th December and plans to create Fastjet Zambia and Fastjet Kenya have been suspended.

It wasn’t too happy at the top either. Chairman Colin Child resigned, just 15 months after his appointment.

Jambojet (Kenya Airways LCC subsidiary) has upped frequencies to at least double-daily from Nairobi to Eldoret, Kisumu, Ukundu and Lamu. Other private Kenyan airlines see this as unfair competition sustained with the help of Kenya Airways backing.

Kenya Airways continues to be distracted by its internal problems.  A 7-day pilot’s strike was called by their seldom smiling union KALPA from 18th October demanding senior management removal, including CEO Mbuvi Ngunze. A court banned the action and flights eventually operated normally. KALPA subsequently withdrew its strike notice but CEO Mbuvi Ngunze is to leave in the first part of 2017, probably with a sigh of relief. A new Commercial Director, Vincent Coste, formerly with Air France-KLM and latterly Qatar Airways was appointed with effect from November 1st. 27% shareholder KL will feel more comfortable with the appointment of an alumnus than it would have been with someone from another group. He will find Kenya Airways a very different thing to Qatar. If he can bring a touch of a Gulf airline’s quality and development approach together with discipline on the front line to the airline he could achieve a lot. To do that he really needs a fully supportive and highly capable team around him. This was the very successful recipe when the Speedwing team of four led by Brian Davies steered the airline through privatisation and for a while afterwards.

Meanwhile spokes fall off the all important hub. That’s not how a hub model works. Abuja and Gaborone are dropping out of the network. To compensate there is some thickening of more successful routes with Mumbai and Dubai becoming double daily at the end of October along with other frequency upgrades within East Africa.

Rwandair in its breakout into longer haul operations took delivery of the second of two new A330s on 30th November. London A330 services should start in January 2017 and an ambition to get to New York could drive the purchase of the A350.  Harare is also due to join the network in January.
Sudan Airways the State President has announced that the airline will receive 14 new aircraft in 2017 financed by a Chinese loan. Their intended deployment is unknown. In the 1960s and 70s Sudan Airways was an early sixth freedom operator with a limited hubbing network between London, Europe and East Africa via its Khartoum base. The current fleet consists of two A320s and a single leased B737-300.  The airline remains on the ‘EU black list’.
It’s not all plain sailing with their own government though. On 16th November the Sudan CAA fired a shot through the country’s own foot by ordering the suspension of domestic services due to pricing irregularities in contravention of a Government Directive on fares. Presumably this had something to do with the common problem of governments demanding  low fares on domestics but then refusing the pay for the resultant loss.
Uganda Airlines The Government is planning to spend US$331m on new, not leased, aircraft for the putative new state-owned carrier, including A330 and CRJ900s. Their deployment is unclear but it’s likely that one intention to benefit from Kenya Airways’ current disarray.


Air Botswana has confirmed a codeshare agreement with Qatar Airways linking Gaborone, Maun and Francistown with Qatar’s double-daily Johannesburg services.

Bearing in mind Africa’s paucity of direct air services between city pairs an unwelcome development was the withdrawal of even low frequency flights to Harare and Lusaka from 12/13 November. Both were served by ATR42-50s, Harare twice weekly and Lusaka once. One of the daily domestic Kasane (near the borders of Botswana, Namibia, Zambia and Zimbabwe) flights also goes. Fleet renewal remains pressing and the search continues for partners to help fund US$220m for up to 7 new aircraft, a mix of turbo-prop and jet. Given the airline’s past record there could be shortage of takers though as usual China is a possible as it seeks to extend its influence and control across the continent. The fleet is now three aging ATR42-500s and a single ATR72-500. The 2014/15 operating loss on this modest operation was declared as US$15.6m.

Air Madagascar says Air Mauritius and Air Austral (Reunion) are among the favourites to enter into a strategic partnership. A decision due by end of 2016 to sell a 49% stake.

EC Air (Congo Brazzaville) Services were suspended in early October when ASECNA, provider of Air Navigation Services, stopped providing service due to unpaid debts.  PrivatAir, the Swiss supplier of the flight crews plus technical support, has withdrawn and membership of the IATA Clearing House has ceased.

Fly Blue Crane (S Africa) has entered Business Rescue, similar to US Chapter 11 protection from creditors pending restructuring. Flying started in September 2015 with a single ERJ145 on a domestic network serving two of the usual suspects, Johannesburg and Cape Town, plus Kimberley and Bloemfontein. Talks continue with potential investors.
FlySafair (S Africa) LCC has again offered to buy SAA LCC subsidiary Mango for which SAA has reported a US$2.5m net loss for year end March 2016. Safair has no interest in a part share sale following an earlier Finance Minister stated sale possibility. A part share in a business controlled by a highly interventionist government is hardly an attractive proposition.
Rainbow Airlines (Zimbabwe). This privately-owned start-up carrier planned to launch flights on 22October with a leased MD87 operating between Harare and Victoria Falls. August was the original target date.
SA Airlink is anticipating the imminent delivery of its first of its two Emb140s. Current fleet is 12x ERJ135s, 8xBAe J41s and two ERJ145s.  The fleet of 12 ARJ85s is being run down. A privately owned carrier, the airline operates as a SAA franchisee with code-shares and scheduling integration. 
SA Express Although SAA secured a US$351m state guarantee last month SA Express was not included and so remains unable to file its 2015-16 financial statements.  The airline plans to stabilise on a 20 aircraft fleet of 90-seat leased jets over the next 5 years.  CRJ900 and E190 are competing.  A decision is expected in February.
Skywise (S Africa) LCC plans to re-launch before the end of this year. It ceased flying in December 2015 due to outstanding debts.  The company has now been sold to S African private equity company, Motlekar Holdings, which talks of re-equipping with Chinese aircraft. That’s not a well known recipe for success.

Swazi Airways (Swaziland). This state-owned start-up leases one of those old stalwarts ,a B737-300, from South Africa.  Operations were originally announced to start in February this year with the network possibly extending to Cape Town, Harare, Dubai and Bombay. The Swaziland Government is also a shareholder in SwaziAirlink, the joint venture with SA Airlink.

Air Côte d’Ivoire is planning the imminent launch of services to Bangui and Kigali.
Senegal Airlines and Royal Air Maroc are talking of forging a new relationship. The previous mutual shareholding with Air Senegal International collapsed in 2009.

Arik Air (Nigeria) privately-owned, launched in Oct 2000 celebrated its 10th anniversary by announcing an ambitious search for US$1billion through a mix of 2017 private share placement and a possible IPO in Lagos. The fleet is expected to double to 50+ by 2025.  On order are 2 B747-8i and 7 B787-9s. The long-haul network is expected to grow beyond today’s London and New York. Current fleet of 25 is mainly B737-700/800 and two leased A330-200s 
A temporary problem in this country which is rich in oil production but not in refining capability  has been going fuel shortages which has meant a trimming of the domestic network. 
Binter Canarias (Canary Islands) has ordered 6 new ATR72-600s. The present  fleet is 18 ATR72-500/600 and 2 wet-leased CRJ900s. The current Las Palmas based network includes Spain, Portugal, Senegal and Mauritania. 

Camair-Co. SAA Technical has seized a B737 undergoing maintenance in S Africa due to outstanding debts.  On 30th September the company abandoned Paris, its sole long haul destination.  The new Board Chairman has said the focus will now be on strengthening domestic routes.  Boeing Consulting has proposed a five year ‘stimulus package’ of network and fleet renewal involving the purchase and lease of up to 15 new aircraft. How they justify this and what the aircraft would profitably is unclear especially as the state-owned carrier is currently bankrupt and overstaffed.

Colombe Airlines (Burkina Faso) Originally launched in Oct2013, operations resumed after on 1st November on a single domestic route after a twelve month gap. Ouagadougou-Bobo- Dioulasso, is now flown with an ATR72-200.  Bamako, Abidjan and Accra are potential additional points. 

Cronos Airlines (Eq Guinea) is wet leasing a single A319-100as an addition to its fleet of a Bae146 and 2 ERJ135s. It flies regionally from Malabo to Douala, Yaounde, Lagos and Pt Harcourt

Mauritania Airlines International  has accepted a new B737-800 to add to its existing pair of B737-500s, a single 737-700 two B737-800s and an Emb145. 


EgyptAir has ordered 8 B737-800s from Boeing. Finance and delivery dates are uncertain due to Government flotation of the Egyptian Pound. 

 Moscow services are being relaunched in December. 

Libyan Airlines launched the A320 on the short cross border coastal sector between Misurata and  Alexandria on 21st October.  
Libyan Wings. Current operations are international only from Tripoli to Istanbul and Tunis, both at 90%+ load factors.  Adding two A321s to the current fleet of 2 A319s in early 2017 is being considered.  Khartoum, Casablanca and Alexandria are probable next destinations. Libya remains on the EU ‘blacklist’. 
Royal Air Maroc. Subject to Government  approval the airline expects to conclude a minority share sale to Qatar Airways. This comes at a time when neighbour Etihad is looking to shed or alter some of its investments in unprofitable European airlines.


Emirates in what looks like a tightening of returns on spend has hinted at frequency and network cuts in African routes due to slowing regional GDP growth and local currency problems.

KLM returns to Freetown and Monrovia in March 2017 after a gap of nearly 20 years, operating a thrice weekly A330-200 .

Qatar Airways launched a Doha-Windhoek route on October 4th followed by Doha-Luxor on 30th October.

 Libreville and Douala are next on the airline’s Africa list for 2017.

Turkish Airlines is hoping to develop China-Africa tourism to help offset this year’s drop in inbound tourism to Turkey.

Three times weekly A330 services to Seychelles started on 30th October and Zanzibar is slated for December.


AFRAA is calling for governments to release airline blocked funds, estimated at US$2bn, as a result of hard currency shortages. Nigeria, Angola, Egypt and Sudan are named.  

Kenya 2016 visitor arrivals, January to August show a 17% increase on 2015 but arrivals continue to be 29% lower than 2011 levels. The large European tourism producing countries continue the significant 5 year falls in volumes: Italy 66%, Germany 60% and the UK 50%. The high end of the market focused on the game parks continues to do well but many of the much higher volume lower yield beach holiday travellers have been frightened away by travel advisories and concerns about possible insecurity along the Kenyan coast.

Nigeria. The development of a new national carrier continues to be a Government objective and the appointment of a transaction adviser is imminent.  The new carrier would be joint government/private sector funded. It's not a new task. Nigeria has struggled with the creation of a well run and profitable national airline ever since the breakup of West African Airways in the late 1950s. Starting with a subcontracted management protected from government and any other intervention by a strong and incorruptable Nigerian chairman would be a good option. Nothing has ever worked better than that for  Kenya Airways' revival and privatisation. The choice of a source would be important as would be guarantees that first rate people were assigned to the contract.

South Africa The Government has appointed consultants, Bain and Co, to report on the structure and performance of state-owned SAA, SA Express and LCC Mango. The possible sale of minority stakes has been indicated but as mentioned above that may not be attractive to potential investors who don’t want to be subject to government agendas or whims.

Tunisia expects to sign an Open Skies Agreement with the EU before the end of the year, to become effective in April 2017. Morocco has such an agreement which has enabled EU low cost carriers to start operations.

Zimbabwe’s Victoria Falls airport upgrade including a new domestic terminal is complete and was opened on 18th November. It was funded and built by China, another “to be paid for” item on the lenders’ tab.

-John Williams

 December 2016