The Late Delivery Nightmare,-Some light in the 787 and 380 tunnels.

The initial delays to Boeing's 787 deliveries were probably at least secretly welcomed by many of the early recipients in particular as they avoided substantial new payments and stretched out the front line service of well written down 767s and other types by a year or two.

Since then the progression of the aircraft from Dreamliner to Nightmareliner has been made worse by the impact it has started to have particularly on those customers with competitively based expansion plans. They have been faced with potentially expensive and less satisfactory dilemmas of whether to put these plans on hold and risk losing out or whether to lease in or even buy short term solutions in the form of additional aircraft. This sounds easy but actually isn't. It usually gives the operator a handful of non standard aircraft, with non brand consistent, interiors, seating configurations and types, IFE systems and all sorts of great and small engineering differences. Renewing or even refreshing cabins is expensive and difficult to justify for a short lifespan but if not done can leave the lessor with a sub standard product. Alternatively, putting growth on hold risks competitors strengthening their hubs, networks or frequencies while you stagnate and costs rise. Some of these costs will have been recovered through compensation paid by Boeing but the competitive disadvantages produce deeper and longer lasting scars which are very difficult to quantify. The effect of being known for unreliable, tatty or otherwise unattractive aircraft can last way beyond the eventual introduction of the new standardised shiny new brand consistent fleet.

We are probably now in territory where many 787 customers in particular are feeling increasing frustration and champing at the bit for the earliest possible deliveries.

With this in mind, Boeing's recently notified delivery schedules for at least the first batches of some customers' aircraft will have been welcomed but maybe as only the first glimmer of light in a still lengthy tunnel. LOT will have welcomed firm delivery dates for its first five aircraft starting in 2011 , but what of the remaining three? Air Canada have 2013-2014 dates for their first five, but what of the remaining 32?

Airbus meanwhile are clearly worried that any slack in their A350 design, production, certification and delivery programme has now been taken up so any delays or holdups from here on land them with the same problem. The costly and cashflow-sapping experience with the A380 is not something they would wish to repeat. Both manufacturers, driven by their respective bids for competitive advantage, have been wildly over optimistic on one major project each(let's call the 747-800 minor for the moment). The A380 with around 43 delivered is at last beginning to look like getting on track but it also has a way to go yet.The airline industry will not forgive a perpetuation of this behaviour on another generation of new aircraft .Meanwhile airlines are likely to grow more demanding in their calls for compensation for the effect of late deliveries of these key new fleets have done to plans and market positions.