UK Airline Passenger Duty (APD) in a political headlock. It's almost impossible to get rid of.

For those hoping that the UK Government might see the error of its ways and reduce or entirely ditch its now crushing levels of APD the bad news is that the realities of a) It now producing over £ 1 billion a year to the Treasury and b) Political Britain's obsession with class, wealth and poverty therefore make it almost impossible to get rid of.

The abolition or reduction of APD would be greeted with near hysterical headlines of " £1.5 billion giveaway to wealthy travellers and foreigners" and worse. There would follow lists of how many nurses, policemen, libraries, schools, hospitals the £ 1.5 billion would pay for. There would not be a moment's thought about the lost jobs of voiceless people in a wide range of roles which depend to a greater or lesser extent on tourism. Add to that more easily identifiable jobs with airlines, airports, handling companies, concessionaries and the rest and the potential totals are into the tens or possibly of thousands. Transport for London would be one big loser of revenue. There would be thousands of others great and small up and down the land. Fred and Flossie in the airport duty free shop have never been so threatened.

In racking up the level of APD so high, both Labour and the coalition have created a monster which can not be dismantled. Initially they probably did not comprehend that in escalating it so high they were destroying the ability to reverse it later.It could probably only be done now amidst a raft of financial measures, some of which obtained an equivalent billion from somewhere else. No wonder Walsh of IAG/BA announced cutbacks in recruitment (400 out of 800) and not bringing back into the fleet one stored 747-400. Two further aircraft are believed to be in doubt and that could just be the beginning of it.

2012 will be a difficult year for the airline and travel business while many especially in Europe keep their wallets in their pockets as an insurance against yet more bad economic news. There will be distortions in the UK due to the Royal Jubilee and the Olympics and while London may do well overall, the fact that 50% of its hotel beds will be occupied (many at UK taxpayers' expense) by "The Olympic Family" during the games means that a lot of other demand will simply go elsewhere. Provincial UK, and Scotland could be particularly badly affected. Soaring APD will be whatever is the opposite to icing on the cake,- and it's almost too big now to go away.