By Thursday most of the big announcements from the Farnborough Air Show have been made, the top tier of industry people have begun to leave and some exhibits are starting to go home before the gates are open to the public at the weekend.
While there have been no dramatic announcements during the crucial three days there have been some interesting features.
- Significantly , the A380, Boeing 787 and 737-900NG all appeared in the colours of Gulf and Asian airlines. With current growth in Asia running at over 7% and the Gulf airlines continuing their spectacular additions to network and frequencies, the dynamism, investment and growth are to the east of debt-ridden Europe. The USA with its still dominant core of legacy carriers isn't very exciting either although massive fleet renewals have to happen. Significantly the eastern groupings , other than the Indian subcontinent which struggles with myriad of economic, philosophical and political problems, are also areas of the world where airport development , modernisation and capacity keep driving ahead in meeting and anticipating market demand. They are not places where the refurbishment of a handful of tired older aircraft is announced with a flourish of pride and airport development is stuck in endless political wrangling and a "Do nothing" culture. For most eastern airlines and aviation authorities such things are taken for granted and done all the time. Pride is in new aircraft, development, better technical and customer facilities/ service and expansion. That's why the A 380 at Farnborough was Malaysia's, the 787 Qatar's and the 737 Korean's.
- In a display of confidence in the type and in future passenger demand as well as the risk of future slot limitations at more aiports ,Cathay Pacific converted 16 A350-900 orders to -1000s and added 10 more. With large 777 and A 330 fleets Cathay has always been a shrewd purchaser. In the early days of jets they never bought new aircraft and would go for the less conventional -ie Convair 880,- if its ownership costs were lower. When the Tristar came along it wasn't quite ideal but it was cheaper than the DC 10 and could be made to cover most of the needs. A few were bought new but still most came from previous owners. Only from the 747 onwards has the policy been to buy new and then keep the aircraft for most of their front line lifetime (contrasted to Singapore who have tended to turn their fleets over at relatively young ages before they became expensive engineering-wise). Cathay has also been a master of "misusing" its long haul fleet by extensively deploying them of relatively short sectors. Not ideal for operating costs but very economical in maximising aircraft and crew utilisation. With the A350 Cathay are again out on a bit of a limb and hedging their bets. This will have helped them get the best deal on this and future additional purchases. Rest assured ,they will continue to make shrewd and canny decisions.
-Airbus meanwhile is continuing its process of giving the A330 series more weight and range. The -300 now goes up by 5 tonnes to 240 tonnes, giving a 400nm range increase taking it to 5,950 nm with nearly 5 tonnes more payload. This gives airlines more choice in the decisions as to whether to add A330 and 777 generation aircraft now and save on purchase prices or wait for A 350s and 787s and gain from their lower fuel and operating costs or go for a mix of both solutions. At the same time, there are signs of 787 customers deciding in the light of the 3 year delivery delays to switch orders from the -800 to the larger -900 as certainly by mid life the -800 will be too small. The same passage of time may also make 737-900 customers look at switching to 787-800s as the capacity gap between the two is relatively small and the 787 offers a much more customer friendly widebody environment and further flexibility of deployment. It's a good time for airline mathematicians and economists (yes, there is a difference between the two) as well as marketing departments.
- The presence of Malaysia's second A380 at a time when it is urgently needed in the fleet denotes the marketing value placed by the carrier on it being seen live or via the media by a wide variety of potential passengers. This visibility will be powerful in establishing the credentials of the airline, ever concerned at Singapore's dominance in the area, as a leading edge player with the latest equipment. Orders for the 380 continue to be sluggish but despite doubters its long term niche looks assured. The current -800 is the baseline aircraft for the -900 in which both Emirates and Cathay have expressed serious interes, and later even further stretches. Airbus' immediate preoccupation is to get the wing build problems sorted so that new deliveries not requiring subsequent (up to 8 week) rectification come off the production line as soon as possible. Nobody likes accepting aircraft which they know will have to be modified later.
- In the turboprop arena , ATR continue to sell their products at a steady rate. Bombardier less so. The economics of the ATR and Dash 8 hold their own on short (less than 90 mins) sectors and where they are not threatened competitively by the RJs dominated by the EMB 170/190 series and in due course by updated and re-engined rivals. Thanks to their low initial ownership costs cheap- to- buy classic 737s still produce fair economics in limited markets,-eg Africa,- but are increasingly high maintainence in all respects.
-
While there have been no dramatic announcements during the crucial three days there have been some interesting features.
- Significantly , the A380, Boeing 787 and 737-900NG all appeared in the colours of Gulf and Asian airlines. With current growth in Asia running at over 7% and the Gulf airlines continuing their spectacular additions to network and frequencies, the dynamism, investment and growth are to the east of debt-ridden Europe. The USA with its still dominant core of legacy carriers isn't very exciting either although massive fleet renewals have to happen. Significantly the eastern groupings , other than the Indian subcontinent which struggles with myriad of economic, philosophical and political problems, are also areas of the world where airport development , modernisation and capacity keep driving ahead in meeting and anticipating market demand. They are not places where the refurbishment of a handful of tired older aircraft is announced with a flourish of pride and airport development is stuck in endless political wrangling and a "Do nothing" culture. For most eastern airlines and aviation authorities such things are taken for granted and done all the time. Pride is in new aircraft, development, better technical and customer facilities/ service and expansion. That's why the A 380 at Farnborough was Malaysia's, the 787 Qatar's and the 737 Korean's.
- In a display of confidence in the type and in future passenger demand as well as the risk of future slot limitations at more aiports ,Cathay Pacific converted 16 A350-900 orders to -1000s and added 10 more. With large 777 and A 330 fleets Cathay has always been a shrewd purchaser. In the early days of jets they never bought new aircraft and would go for the less conventional -ie Convair 880,- if its ownership costs were lower. When the Tristar came along it wasn't quite ideal but it was cheaper than the DC 10 and could be made to cover most of the needs. A few were bought new but still most came from previous owners. Only from the 747 onwards has the policy been to buy new and then keep the aircraft for most of their front line lifetime (contrasted to Singapore who have tended to turn their fleets over at relatively young ages before they became expensive engineering-wise). Cathay has also been a master of "misusing" its long haul fleet by extensively deploying them of relatively short sectors. Not ideal for operating costs but very economical in maximising aircraft and crew utilisation. With the A350 Cathay are again out on a bit of a limb and hedging their bets. This will have helped them get the best deal on this and future additional purchases. Rest assured ,they will continue to make shrewd and canny decisions.
-Airbus meanwhile is continuing its process of giving the A330 series more weight and range. The -300 now goes up by 5 tonnes to 240 tonnes, giving a 400nm range increase taking it to 5,950 nm with nearly 5 tonnes more payload. This gives airlines more choice in the decisions as to whether to add A330 and 777 generation aircraft now and save on purchase prices or wait for A 350s and 787s and gain from their lower fuel and operating costs or go for a mix of both solutions. At the same time, there are signs of 787 customers deciding in the light of the 3 year delivery delays to switch orders from the -800 to the larger -900 as certainly by mid life the -800 will be too small. The same passage of time may also make 737-900 customers look at switching to 787-800s as the capacity gap between the two is relatively small and the 787 offers a much more customer friendly widebody environment and further flexibility of deployment. It's a good time for airline mathematicians and economists (yes, there is a difference between the two) as well as marketing departments.
- The presence of Malaysia's second A380 at a time when it is urgently needed in the fleet denotes the marketing value placed by the carrier on it being seen live or via the media by a wide variety of potential passengers. This visibility will be powerful in establishing the credentials of the airline, ever concerned at Singapore's dominance in the area, as a leading edge player with the latest equipment. Orders for the 380 continue to be sluggish but despite doubters its long term niche looks assured. The current -800 is the baseline aircraft for the -900 in which both Emirates and Cathay have expressed serious interes, and later even further stretches. Airbus' immediate preoccupation is to get the wing build problems sorted so that new deliveries not requiring subsequent (up to 8 week) rectification come off the production line as soon as possible. Nobody likes accepting aircraft which they know will have to be modified later.
- In the turboprop arena , ATR continue to sell their products at a steady rate. Bombardier less so. The economics of the ATR and Dash 8 hold their own on short (less than 90 mins) sectors and where they are not threatened competitively by the RJs dominated by the EMB 170/190 series and in due course by updated and re-engined rivals. Thanks to their low initial ownership costs cheap- to- buy classic 737s still produce fair economics in limited markets,-eg Africa,- but are increasingly high maintainence in all respects.
-
No comments:
Post a Comment
Note: only a member of this blog may post a comment.