There is a lot going on in South East Asia, but away from the task of finding the missing aircraft there must be great concerns among governments and individuals,- and not only those in the immediate area,- about some so far unmentioned but very significant implications of the complete disappearance of a large civil airliner operated by a reputable carrier in a well populated and much overflown part of the world.
First up are the Malaysian authorities.They are struggling to maintain a clearly led and coordinated response to the intense international media questioning and speculation. Unused to this intensity of attention, they are trying hard to meet the needs of the moment, keep the salivating media happy and at the same time to give the families of the passengers and crew all the support they can. With the the latter they are doing as well as anyone possibly could in extremely difficult circumstances. These people want information and there really isn't any. The Malaysians will be very nervous of subsequent criticism of anything they have or have not done or could have done better . Hence examples of fumbling and apparent reticence to give some kinds of information.This has led to suspicions that they are not saying all they know. There are also questions about the military's claim and then denial that the aircraft turned back across the Malaysian peninsular. If it wasn't true, why did they say anything? If it was an attempt by the military to move to centre stage in the civilian led handling of the event it was a mistake. The limitations of Malaysia's ability to constantly monitor its own airspace are now very clear as are those of its own forces to mount a major search and rescue operation. This would be true of many countries and emphasises the need for immediate and well pre-planned regional and global cooperation to mount massive searches almost at the flick of a switch. For the Malaysians now it's an (added ) embarrassment.
Next in line are the governments of all surrounding countries, the holes in whose radar systems, military and search and rescue capabilities are also being laid bare. The realities will be intensively scrutinised, not least by each other but certainly by the USA and China, over the next few months. Questions will arise about the degrees of vigilance particularly in the early hours of the morning and whether they have sufficiently sophisticated equipment and operatives to monitor their skies and approaches. Again some myths about all- seeing systems will be destroyed or severely battered. (Let's not forget though that even in the Cold War Britain at the weekends kept only two fighters on immediate readiness to intercept any approaching aircraft from the direction of the USSR and even now the Swiss Air Force is only available for interceptions 0800-1200 and 1400-1800 on weekdays only.Outside these hours, as recently, they have to call on the French).
Finally there are the superpowers of the US and China. Encouraged by heroic films, official statements, pictures of door knockers from outer space and general hype, people everywhere have come to believe that almost nothing moves on the face of the planet without being observed and recorded by the military and intelligence services of the world's big powers. This notion is now being shown up as flawed. The reddest faces at the end of the saga could be US, Russian and Chinese security chiefs whose capabilities are shown not to be quite as all pervasive as previously believed. As result we are now likely to see an electronics- led scramble to plug the gaps by nations large and small. There are some good things about that and some less good.
Finally, partly born of disbelief that really nobody anywhere knows at least where Malaysia 370 is, there is some concern that in order to protect and keep methods,sources and extent of surveillance under wraps, one or more players could be holding back vital pieces of information. In this case though anything crucial, at least about the location of the aircraft, would almost certainly be delivered to the Malaysians by one credible channel or another.So far it doesn't appear to have been. That being the case, everyone really is in the dark.
First up are the Malaysian authorities.They are struggling to maintain a clearly led and coordinated response to the intense international media questioning and speculation. Unused to this intensity of attention, they are trying hard to meet the needs of the moment, keep the salivating media happy and at the same time to give the families of the passengers and crew all the support they can. With the the latter they are doing as well as anyone possibly could in extremely difficult circumstances. These people want information and there really isn't any. The Malaysians will be very nervous of subsequent criticism of anything they have or have not done or could have done better . Hence examples of fumbling and apparent reticence to give some kinds of information.This has led to suspicions that they are not saying all they know. There are also questions about the military's claim and then denial that the aircraft turned back across the Malaysian peninsular. If it wasn't true, why did they say anything? If it was an attempt by the military to move to centre stage in the civilian led handling of the event it was a mistake. The limitations of Malaysia's ability to constantly monitor its own airspace are now very clear as are those of its own forces to mount a major search and rescue operation. This would be true of many countries and emphasises the need for immediate and well pre-planned regional and global cooperation to mount massive searches almost at the flick of a switch. For the Malaysians now it's an (added ) embarrassment.
Next in line are the governments of all surrounding countries, the holes in whose radar systems, military and search and rescue capabilities are also being laid bare. The realities will be intensively scrutinised, not least by each other but certainly by the USA and China, over the next few months. Questions will arise about the degrees of vigilance particularly in the early hours of the morning and whether they have sufficiently sophisticated equipment and operatives to monitor their skies and approaches. Again some myths about all- seeing systems will be destroyed or severely battered. (Let's not forget though that even in the Cold War Britain at the weekends kept only two fighters on immediate readiness to intercept any approaching aircraft from the direction of the USSR and even now the Swiss Air Force is only available for interceptions 0800-1200 and 1400-1800 on weekdays only.Outside these hours, as recently, they have to call on the French).
Finally there are the superpowers of the US and China. Encouraged by heroic films, official statements, pictures of door knockers from outer space and general hype, people everywhere have come to believe that almost nothing moves on the face of the planet without being observed and recorded by the military and intelligence services of the world's big powers. This notion is now being shown up as flawed. The reddest faces at the end of the saga could be US, Russian and Chinese security chiefs whose capabilities are shown not to be quite as all pervasive as previously believed. As result we are now likely to see an electronics- led scramble to plug the gaps by nations large and small. There are some good things about that and some less good.
Finally, partly born of disbelief that really nobody anywhere knows at least where Malaysia 370 is, there is some concern that in order to protect and keep methods,sources and extent of surveillance under wraps, one or more players could be holding back vital pieces of information. In this case though anything crucial, at least about the location of the aircraft, would almost certainly be delivered to the Malaysians by one credible channel or another.So far it doesn't appear to have been. That being the case, everyone really is in the dark.
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