Friday 10 October 2014

Ebola.- Its effects coming soon to an airport, station or port near you.

With the first Ebola deaths in the western world has come a wave of hysteria, particularly among those politicians whose greatest fear is the possibility of accusations of inactivity in the face of any threat great or small.

It's a difficult one for them. Calls for calm and the simple statements that airport checks of incoming passengers (from affected areas) are next to pointless would be a personal disaster if a case should be confirmed.The politician concerned would be hung out to dry.

The reality is that airport checks are likely to be of very little use.

Why?

1) There are often no symptoms or raised temperatures for two weeks or more.

2) The flows through and into major hub airports are so large that it is impossible to tell where any of the Great Migration type flows have come from. People are not coming along in neat self contained batches from each flight.They are all mixed together.

3) It's no use standing at the doors of flights arriving direct from West Africa or other specified place. Many people will have connected over a number of intermediate points. If they really did think they were a risk and wanted to get home anyway they would be unlikely to travel on closely monitored direct flights.

Nevertheless, 24 hour media means that the least sign of political misjudgment will be leaped upon  and sanctimoniously decried by political opposition and other groups. Resignations will be called for. No leader likes to live with that possibility.

So.. expect airports,railways stations and ferry ports to be subjected to an overdose of oversight , occasional flurries of people in top to toe protective suits, and quite possibly a lot of hassle on top of the surfeit that already exists. 



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