Trumps-for who?

America's big three legacy airlines may be rubbing their hands in anticipation. Could Mr Trump's arrival mean that their dreams of heavy governmental protectionism be about to come good?  President Obama had made it clear he wasn't interested in their pleas of woe about the Gulf airlines and others. Their demands that the intruders be cut back so "to establish a level playing field" had  produced only stifled yawns from the White House. They just weren't interesting. The dusty legacies' aspirations for foreign airlines' to be cut back to operating  only the routes, frequencies and capacities identical to those flown by US carriers cut no ice. For many routes,- and US airports that would have meant zero long haul international flights. Americans and foreigners alike would have to go back to hubbing over the major US international airports and connecting at the other end  to any points (ie most of the world) not served by a US carrier. There will now be hopes among the big three that a protectionist Trump will be more sympathetic to them, disruptive though it would be business and leisure travel.

The brighter reality is that lobbying against this would be Boeing, especially with its hub busting 787 and new 777x aircraft to sell, and the US airports who would lose their prized direct international links to the world. There would also be significant American job losses and local economic downturns, things the new President would find politically difficult. It was after all the historic destruction of blue collar jobs that swung a lot of votes for him.

It is not all over for the current fairly liberal traffic rights regime. Panic,-and celebrations by the big three,- can be delayed. Wakeful watching and well targeted and argued lobbying focusing on the benefits for ALL of America will be the key battlegrounds.