Those of ICAG's shareholders who hold their paper by virtue of having had it swapped for the BA equivalent on takeover day must be wondering whether they might not have been better off if the the consolidation of the BA and Iberia, and now BMi brands into Spanish registered ICAG had never happened. If so they can only blame themselves. The "merger" went unchallenged at the two precedeing BA AGM's. The floor's focus was on cabin crew gripes about terms and conditions being threatened by wicked Willie, staff travel and other laments. The "merger" barely featured and was never challenged.
Now they must view the overall ICAG 2011 performance with some disquiet and thoughts about about what might have been if BA had carried on alone with a new determination to reassert its former worldwide international market dominance.
ICAG more than doubled the previous year's BA and Iberia pre tax operating profits to Euros 542 million. That's good. To achieve this the BA brand made an operating profit of Euros 592 million while Iberia contributed a loss of Euros 61 million. Iberia continues to be a high cost carrier with a lot of built in problems with restrictive labour agreements and the problems of Spanish labour laws which makes slimming down very expensive. For the ex BA shareholders that's not good.
2012 doesn't look any less cloudy. Iberia's pilots are protesting about the arrival of the brand's new low cost domestic and short haul operator via twice weekly strikes on Mondays and Fridays. These stretch through to the end of July and will knock a hole in the second and third quarter brand and ICAG corporate results. There will be some clawback by moving bookings forwards or backwards a day and thereby achieving very high load factors. There will also be savings from aircraft simply not being in the air on those days. Neither of these will cover the downside loss of customer confidence,loyalty and revenue.
BMi being rolled into the conglomerate and the BA brand isn't going to help ICAG's short term results either. It brings a unique and very valuable portfolio of Heathrow slots with it but to keep them they have to be operated. That means that for some time to come the bulk of the unprofitable (£100-130 million a year)largely short haul BMi network has to continue as is. Some corporate Head Office overheads will be stripped out through large scale redundancies but that itself won't close the gap. To make its case for being allowed to proceed with the takeover, ICAG has majored on the opportunities to enhance Heathrow's position vis-a-vis rival hubs by opening more services to high growth areas, notably Asia and South America (wasn't that meant to be Iberia's speciality from Madrid?). The truth though is that BA has not got the spare long haul aircraft to do that. There is also the question of its real taste for the east. As we have noted previously, spooked by the 1997/8 Asian downturn and despite the post 2000 boom, BA has withdrawn from Osaka, Fukuoka, Seoul, Taipei, Manila, Kuala Lumpur and Jakarta and reduced its frequencies to Bangkok and, recently, to Hong Kong. It has shown little enthusiasm for the east with its high business travel volumes and yields to some cities but patchy demand and low yields to others. It has felt more comfortable and familiar with the North Atlantic which is easier to understand and operate. Also BA has added very few long haul aircraft to its fleet in the past ten years. The much trumpeted arrival of 6 777-300ERs in the last twelve months is hardly world dominating stuff and is around the equivalent three months added capacity for Emirates. BA can revive a few 747-400s and retain some more of these and some 767-300ERs which were due to be retired when the first A380s and 787s begin to dribble into the fleet in 2012. That though is a while away yet, even if they do bite the bullet and really go for long haul expansion in the east from then on. In the meantime ICAG is likely to continue losing money on what was the BMi operation and the BA brand is going to have carry on funding its two less healthy sisters.
Those former BA shareholders look like continuing to wring their hands and shake their heads for a while yet.
Meanwhile on a lighter note BA plans to introduce a 1948 theme to some of its menus. One wonders if any of these sitting around whatever conference table came up with this stroke of inspiration have any idea about the state of British cuisine in 1948. It was a year of extreme post WW2 greyness and austerity. People queued up for ration books for food and clothing. Small amounts of corned beef, spam, an egg or two were highlights of the weekly menu. Maybe this idea is a cover for new cost cutting in the catering department? Will those at the front receive reasonable, but not generous, portions of these items, those in the middle rather smaller ones of much the same and those at the back just be handed two ration coupons, one for a single bag of nuts and the other for a liquid cross between tea and coffee?
Monday, 16 April 2012
Tuesday, 10 April 2012
African Roundup :February-March 2012
As always, there has been a lot of activity during the past 2 months …………
Two significant items from the financial pages have been the launch of the long awaited Kenya Airways rights issue to raise USD250m on 30th March and SAA going cap in hand to their Government seeking up to USD777m. The two are very different. The former is part of an aggressive expansion plan, the latter is more about long-term survival.
Kenya Airways cites further delays to completion of the long-awaited refurbishment and expansion of Nairobi’s Jomo Kenyatta Airport as the major risk to its growth plans. Progress appears slow and the short term result far less exciting and comprehensive than appeared in the brochures handed out at World Travel Mart in London three years ago. At present the narrow and unattractive airside corridor lined with unimaginative cramped shops all selling the same things and the lack of a proper comfortable area with good rest and catering facilities for transfer passengers to while away a few hours make it an airport to avoid. It is not attractive and undermines Kenya Airways’ massive investment in developing an effective interconnecting network .The airline’s fleet is projected to triple in size to 107 aircraft by 2021.
Ethiopian Airlines planned growth mirrors the scale of Kenya Airways. By 2025 the fleet will almost triple to 121 aircraft but the investment objectives are wider and the airline is keeping ahead of the game. New hangar space and expansion to training facilities are already being built.
Trends in fleet composition are becoming apparent. Gone are the days of automatic 130 seat Boeing 737 acquisitions in the region. Kenya Airways anticipates a fleet dominated in 2021 by 32 Boeing 787s and 31 E190s. Rwandair has ordered 2 new CRJ900NGs plus 2 on option. In Africa is the 100 seat jet aircraft set to become the new default option?
Whilst foreign carriers steadily increase their spread and frequency of operations across the continent, the past two months have seen some withdrawals. Malaysia Airlines is to cease Cape Town services and Iberia, Johannesburg though in neither case is the effect on overall route offerings from these places significant. Kuala Lumpur was never a major destination in its own right and Singapore Airlines’ services to its near neighbour more than offset its loss. Madrid is well enough served from South Africa via a number of indirect routings and was never in itself a great producer of incremental traffic. Having served Entebbe for a few weeks, Gulf Air is to pull out once more but again Emirates and Qatar Airways daily services into the country easily cover any gaps. All three of the downsizing carriers are ‘re-assessing’ networks as economic pressures back home intensify. Gulf Air’s proposed Juba service has also been put on hold.
Recent start-up ASky of Togo is experiencing its first headwinds. Well supported by Ethiopian Airlines as 40% shareholder and management team, the Chairman has commented on the difficulties of securing route and frequency expansions with neighbouring countries. The ‘African Open Skies’ envisaged in the Yamoussoukro Decision, born 40 years ago, remain elusive. The local market nationalistically also sees Asky as ‘an extension of Ethiopian’, less as a national carrier. As is too often the case on the continent ,being part of a successful wider African entity seems to hold no local attraction. Hopefully this is not the first chink in a breakdown of the cross border relationship but there are many precedents. SAA and Air Tanzania in East Africa and Royal Air Maroc and Air Senegal in the west, are two recent examples. The process is definately not new though. Going much further back to the late 1950s and 60s ,we saw the demise of East African, West African and Central African , all of which might have now been substantial ,strong and significant businesses if they had survived. In all cases, local national pride played a substantial part.
Past difficulties between SN Brussels and DRC parties appear to have been put aside and Lubumbashi-based Korongo Airlines is to launch in April with SN as 70% shareholder in the new joint-venture with a small fleet of BAe146 and B737 leased from SN.
And there have been failures .....As in our last African roundup ,having defied financial and other gravities for so long, Air Zimbabwe has been disbanded by the shareholder, the Government. On paper a phoenix company has been formed but there is no clarity on future operations.(See more below)
After a bright start three years ago, Zambia’s Zambezi Airlines has ceased operations and low cost Velvet Sky of South Africa survived for only a few months. The culprit was as ever undercapitalisation at the start and the cash simply ran out.
1. EAST AFRICA
African Express Airways (Kenya) plans the extension of its MD82 Nairobi–Mogadishu– Berbera route to Abu Dhabi from 19 May 2012. (Mar2012)
Air Tanzania. A Government inquiry has been launched into 2007 USD200m lease of single A320. The company now plans to add a Q300 and a B737 during next 6 months for network growth or , more accurately , just to stay in business. An alternative the Government could consider though is to refuse further investment and leave PrecisionAir and any other independents to provide Tanzania’s air services at no cost to the nation. (Feb 2012)
Air Uganda / Rwandair have dropped their Entebbe–Kigali codeshare and both carriers are pursuing independent route frequency increases (Feb2012)
Ethiopian Airlines plans significant growth up to 2025. Staff will be up 300% to 16,899, fleet size from current 45 to 112, and destinations from 79 to 121. The staff number growth looks worrying and out of line with fleet or network increases. Perhaps someone got the numbers wrong? (Mar2012)
Juba Air (South Sudan) is arranging US$40m funding to begin operations mid-2012 with a single B727. Good thing they’ve struck oil. 727s like it. On the face of it this doesn’t look like a good start. (Mar2012)
Kenya Airways issued a profit warning for March 2012 year-end. Earnings are estimated to be ‘at least’ 25% lower than 2011 year-end. Mid-east turmoil, Euro crisis and rising fuel prices are blamed. No mention of current reports of poor cabin service or Nairobi airport being overstretched and unappealing.(See above)(Feb 2012)
Kenya Airways launched a joint KQ/KLM B747F cargo operation with Martinair aircraft. 2 services a week Amsterdam-Guangzhou-Nairobi-Lagos-Nairobi-Amsterdam. Kenya Airways plans a fleet of 12 freighters within 10yrs. (Feb 2012)
Kenya Airways has followed Ethiopian Airlines in suspending Malawi Kwacha sales due to acute foreign exchange shortages in Malawi inhibiting hard currency remittances. There is no point of earning money that can’t be used. Lilongwe–Nairobi frequencies have also been cut due to a general fall in Malawi air travel demand, partly caused by the country being at loggerheads with at least one major aid donor. If, following the death of President Bingu Wa Mutharika on 6th April, the country mends some of its international bridges, business could improve again.(Feb 2012)
Kenya Airways from May 2012 will start four weekly B763 services between Nairobi and Delhi. (Mar 2012)
Precision Air , 49% owned by Kenya Airways, has increased its Dar es Salaam –Nairobi frequencies to five daily. Kenya Airways itself has reduced its own services to twice daily but the combined product gives the route what it- and numerous others in Africa,- need most. Frequency rather than sheer capacity. This greatly facilitates and stimulates high yield business traffic both locally and within the imemdiate region. Dar es Salaam is increasingly well served by the Gulf carriers and the fast growing Turkish. (March 2012)
Precision Air is taking delivery of a leased B733 for resumption of flights to Johannesburg. It is also to begin serving Moroni (Comoros) thrice weekly from June 2012 and the Dar–es salaam/Lilongwe/Harare/Dar es salaam triangle thereby adding journey opportunities on the intermediate sectors as well. An ATR is to to based at Bukoba for lakeside Kigoma and Musoma operations. For the first time since the 1970s demise of East African , Tanzania domestic and local cross border links are rising above those of more than 30 years ago. It is a very encouraging development. (Mar2012)
Rwandair is selling two CRJ200s to be replaced with 2 new CRJ900NextGen in late 2012,the first of the type in Africa and despite its much higher ownership costs, potentially much more profitable due so its higher capacity/revenue earning capability. (Mar 2012)
2. SOUTH / CENTRAL AFRICA
1Time of South Africa is launching twice weekly Johannesburg—Mombasa services to add to its Zanzibar and Livingstone international network. All are aimed at the low yield South African tour market,-both groups and individuals. It is also starting twice daily MD83 services from Johannesburg (Lanseria) on the fiercely competitive and frequency rich Capetown and Durban routes. One question is whether Lanseria really can wean enough customers off their habitual familiarity with Johannesburg’s main airport (O.R. Tambo)and whether twice daily can hack it in the face of virtual shuttles by SAA and BA/Comair/Kulula (Feb 2012)
1time CEO Rodney James stepped down along with Executive Director Michael Kaminski. No reasons were given for this, not even “wishing to spend more time with their families” or “to seek new opportunities” (Mar 2012)
Air Cemac(Congo Brazaville)’s multi-year delayed start-up, co-owned by Cameroon, Central Africa Republic, Chad, Equatorial Guinea, and Gabon, has ended its accord with SAA due to ‘deep differences of opinion’. It is seeking new strategic partner ‘within one month’. No candidates come immediately to mind.(Feb 2012)
Air Congo (Democratic Republic of Congo) born out of Hewa Bora, has received a MD82 and has pledged to ‘destroy’ 5 elderly and even less fuel efficient B727s (Mar2012).
Air Malawi Government has said that the B735 is be sold to fund the return to service of the venerable owned B733 ”Kwacha”. Both aircraft have been held since 2008 at SAA Johannesburg due unpaid maintenance bills. Short of aircraft, the airline has reintroduced Lilongwe- Nairobi services with a leased CRJ100. Although served by Ethiopian, Kenya Airways and SAA, landlocked Malawi itself still lacks direct long haul services and would do well to try to attract the attention of one of the Middle East hub carriers to give it better access to worldwide destinations for both passenger and freight traffic. (Feb 2012)
Air Mauritius is to draw in its horns and reduce costs by cancelling services to Milan, Sydney and Melbourne in June 2012 and to Geneva, Frankfurt, Durban, Bangalore and Munich in October 2012 due to “network restructuring” . Presumably the government is saying it can not go on funding losses at the present rate. As part of reorganising its route and capacity portfolio the airline is to boost Johannesburg to twice daily but will withdraw from Durban and Capetown. This makes sense as selling beach holidays to people who already have their own was never as lucrative as it was to the Johannesburg and other inland South African city dwellers.(March 2012)
Air Namibia has ordered two new A319s to join its 2 leased A319s,2 A340-300 and 3 Embraer ERJ135s (Feb 2012)
Air Namibia is launching 4 weekly Windhoek-Harare and 3 weekly Windhoek-Gaberone services with ERJ135 aircraft in May. Next up will be Livingstone services starting in October 2012. With the demise of Air Zimbabwe, Harare is seeing something of a revival courtesy of foreign carriers, something predicted and recommended by Airnthere several months ago. Not having a national carrier to protect can do wonders for a country’s overall air service coverage options-at no cost to the government. (Mar2012)
Air Seychelles is to receive USD11.2m from the Seychelles Government in the first quarter of2012 plus USD10m from July 2012 in accordance with the agreement which also saw Etihad acquiring a 40% holding for USD20m. (Feb 2012). Also as part of the Etihad deal Air Seychelles is launching B763 services linking Seychelles and Abu Dhabi. There are also plans to introduce 2 weekly A332s to Beijing from early 2013. The Chinese labour market in Africa will be the main target. The Chinese do not have a large taste for beach holidays and generally prefer places with substantial shopping opportunities,-often to buy designer labelled items actually manufactured in their home country. (Mar 2012).
Air Zimbabwe. As mentioned above, the company, at least in its previous form, is no more although it’s unlikely that we have seen the end of it. A final straw was a strike by the pilots and USD35m pay is said to be outstanding to all staff. Operations were finally suspended “indefinately “on 20 Feb. The Acting CEO( there’s a hospital pass of a job) blamed cash problems. Clearly he is not given to exaggeration. The company was then disbanded by the Zimbabwe Government and a new state company Air Zimbabwe Private Ltd was formed. The government retains Air Zimbabwe assets and liabilites but their enthusaism for its liabilities is less than clear. A strategic investor is to be sought but as at the same time the government is saying that foreign companies operating in the country must be 51% Zimbabwe owned this won’t be easy especially as the rights of former staff and creditors in the event of such an apparent transfer of undertakings could be contentious.(Mar2012)
Blue Sky of Botswana awaits ‘last documents’ from the country’s Civil Aviation Authority to start operagtions. Meanwhile a B737 in Blue Sky livery is parked at Gaborone and a second B737 identified. The company claims to have a “competitive” rather than low cost business model (Feb2012)
BA franchise ,Comair has secured US Ex-Im financing via Rand Merchant Bank for 4 new B737-800s. (Feb 2012) .Meanwhile in a joint venture with EADS, the company has opened a pilot and maintenance staff training centre for ATR aircraft in Johannesburg. Simulators are included. 85 ATR’s now fly with 32 airlines in 20 African states so it should have a good market if its pricing and quality are right. (Mar2012
SAA is seeking USD 518-777m recapitalization from its shareholder, the South African government for operational costs, fleet renewal and funding business growth, says CFO Wolf Meyer. It has also secured guarantee from a private bank for USD45m to cover ‘air service license responsibilities’. Short term plans include additional long-haul aircraft which will raise the fleet total from 24 to 31 over 5 years (Feb 2012)
Sol Air (Zimbabwe) is new carrier and was granted AOC on 28Jan2012. Moving into ground vacated at least temporarily by Air Zimbabwe it plans domestic and regional routes starting with single B1900D ,later adding CRJ700 and ATR72 aircraft . The launch of services was aimed March 2012. The MD is Nkosilathi Sibanda (Feb 2012)
SonAir of Angola, owned by the nation's national oil company the Sonangol Group, has provided a 747 charter for the British Prime Minister, David Cameron and his entourage of business people to Japan,Indonesia and Malaysia in April. The airline itself has been on the EU's list of banned carriers since 2008 but its 747 operation is contracted out to the US FAA regulated company Atlas Air, the UK arm of which operates BA's London Stansted based freighter network. (April 2012)
TAAG planning to replace to replace three B732s. These veteran stalwarts, cheap to own but heavy on maintainence and fuel, are now fast disappearing from their last strongholds in Africa. (Feb 2012)
TAAG will launch B777-300ER services between Luanda and Dubai from 25 March 2012 (Mar 2012).
Velvet Sky of South Africa .BP has initiated a court liquidation action over a breach of USD4m fuel debt repayments agreement. It also faces cash difficulties with SAA Technical. The already crowded Johannesburg- Durban-Capetown-Johannesburg routes have been suspended but may be resumed in April 2012. (Mar 2012)
Zambezi Airlines’ fleet of 3 leased B737-500 has been re-possessed by GECAS duto to USD2m fees unpaid. The airline has in any case been grounded by the Zambian Government since Nov 2011 over ‘safety concerns’. (Feb 2012)
3. WEST AFRICA
Air Cote d’Ivoire: Air France's CEO has re-commited to an April 2012 launch with 2 leased A319s .Air France/KLM (also a substantial investor in Kenya Airways)is to hold 35% jointly with AKFED. Ivory Coast's Government will hold 51%, local investors 14% as “Defensive move against increasing foreign operator presence,–Turkish, SN Brussels, Emirates”. While Air France must have serious and understandable concerns about the diversion of business away from its Paris hub, the horse though may have very willingly bolted and not all Ivoirians are happy at what they see as French involvement/intervention in the country’s business.(Feb 2012)
Air Taraba (Nigeria),the official airline of Taraba State, has received its first aircraft an ERJ145 (Mar 2012)
Arik Air has suspended daily B738 services between Lagos and Johannesburg. There has been official Nigerian indignation over South African Port Health refusal of entry to 50 Arik passengers on 2 Mar due to alleged fake yellow fever certificates. In reality the issue runs deeper and includes serious South African concerns about illegal Nigerian immigration which is causing disquiet at home. The airline is also to cancel daily operations from Abuja to Heathrow in April 2012 due to difficulties in obtaining Heathrow slots. This issue has been a bone of contention between numerous governments and the UK for many years. Air Services Agreements provide for free and equal access to each others’ markets and to most countries this means access to Heathrow to put their carriers on the same competitive footing as BA and Virgin. The UK contends that no particular London airport is guaranteed and it has no control over Heathrow slot allocations. Technically they are correct but the strong feeling this arouses is there and has been since at least the 1970s. Arik’s move is likely to be calculated to up the ante and so far it has been successful as the UK carriers have been threatened with retaliation. Maybe a spell of BA and Virgin being directed to Lagos(Pt Harcourt) will help resolve the issue. (March 2012)
ASKY of Togo is to receive 3 new Q400NextGen. 40% shareholder ET has placed the order, presumably to get the best deal and obtain aircraft identical with their own which makes good sense from the engineering aspect. (Feb 2012)
Fastjet, the proposed Stelios/Fly540/(new)Lonrho all-jet,low-cost carrier plans its West African base to in Accra and to start with 5 aircraft growing to 15 within 2 years.(Feb 2012)
Starbow Airlines of Ghana has leased a further 2 BAe146 for delivery in May 2012 to launch regional schedules from Accra to Abidjan, Ouagadougou, Cotonou and Monrovia. If Fastjet does come into being it could find the Ghanian as well as the East African skies a little more crowded than appears at first sight.(Feb 2012)
TACV (Cape Verde) anticipates privatization by the end of 2012 (Feb 2012)
TACV (Cape Verde) is to add 2 B738s in May/June 2012. A B767 is planned to replace the B752 on Boston services at end 2012. (Feb 2012)
4. NORTH AFRICA
Syphax Airlines (Tunisia)is a Sfax-based start-up planned for Mar2012 with 2 leased A319 currently undergoing C checks and repainting at CSA Technics. (Feb 2012)
Tunisair Express is adding 2 weekly CRJ900s flying Tunis-Sfax-Misrata to its current thrice weekly Tunis-Sfax-Tripoli programme. (Feb 2012)
5. NON-AFRICAN AIRLINES
Austrian Airlines to resume flights from Vienna to Tripoli on 25 March 2012. (Feb2012)
Emirates has signed a A330 line maintenance contract with Direct Maintenance (Netherlands)a newcomer at Lusaka certified by both EASA and the UAE CAA. (Feb 2012).
Emirates has increased its Dubai-Tunis frequency to daily and A330-200s are replaced by an A340-500 (Feb 2012)
Etihad joins the Lagos fray in July 2012 by launching six times a week A330-200s between Abu Dhabi and Lagos. The target market, as ever, will be largely Nigerian traders shuttling between their Lagos outlets and Middle and Far East suppliers.(Feb 2012)
KLM has postponed the restart of B737-700 Tripoli services until 01 May 2012. (Mar 2012)
Lufthansa is also resuming Tripoli services as is Qatar Airways. (Feb 2012)
Qatar Airways is extending its daily Entebbe flights to Kigali from 21 March. It will have local Entebbe/Kigale rights thus strengthening this city pair which will now have 54 flights a week each way including a double daily by Ethiopian.(Feb 2012)
Royal Jordanian has postponed planned Amma-Lagos-Accra services until June 2012. (Feb 2012). It will also start E195 operations between Amman and Misrata, Libya. (Feb 2012)
Saudi Arabian Airlines on 17th February suspended Tunis services (Feb 2012)
Singapore Airlines Cargo has launched a B747F service from Singapore to Nairobi and Lagos as part of circular Singapore/Gulf/Africa/India/Singapore routing. This is SQ's first appearance in sub Saharan Africa north of the Limpopo. (Feb 2012)
6. MISCELLANEOUS
AFRAA hosted an “Aviation Suppliers and Stakeholders Convention” in Nairobi 7-9 Mar.(Feb 2012)
Ghana is to seek USD741m investment for development of 5 national airports.(Feb 2012)
Ghana CAA Director General has warned that international airlines will face ‘tough measures’ if they fail to charge ‘moderate fares’ and to provide ‘quality service’ (Mar12)
Nairobi JKIA Airport expansion project progress remains very slow (see above). It seems that some of the financing for the complete project is yet to be secured despite its importance and urgency to the national economy. Just half or quarter doing it would be disastrous. It feels as if we have been here before. (Feb 2012)
Nigeria,-The Director General of the Nigerian CAA has called for investment from government and the private sector in new airport technology and facilities New maintenance hangars, ground handling, training and simulators specifically mentioned. Bearing in mind Nigeria’s enormous oil revenues and its potential both as a business destination and regional hub it’s lack of user friendly world class airport with good surface transport links is one of the continent’s tragedies.(Feb 2012)
South Africa: South African airport operator ACSA plus two Brazilian partners have won a 20 year concession to manage Guarulhos, Sao Paulo’s international gateway, with a USD9bn bid plus USD2.5bn capital investment. (Mar 2012)
Tanzania The European Investment Bank is to provide €50m over 20years to upgrade and expand the domestic airports at Kigoma, Bukoba, Tabora, Shinyanga and Sumbawanga. That’s an average of 10 million per airport for each of the 5 essential low volume low frequency airports. It looks expensive.(Feb 2012)
John Williams
6 April 2012
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Two significant items from the financial pages have been the launch of the long awaited Kenya Airways rights issue to raise USD250m on 30th March and SAA going cap in hand to their Government seeking up to USD777m. The two are very different. The former is part of an aggressive expansion plan, the latter is more about long-term survival.
Kenya Airways cites further delays to completion of the long-awaited refurbishment and expansion of Nairobi’s Jomo Kenyatta Airport as the major risk to its growth plans. Progress appears slow and the short term result far less exciting and comprehensive than appeared in the brochures handed out at World Travel Mart in London three years ago. At present the narrow and unattractive airside corridor lined with unimaginative cramped shops all selling the same things and the lack of a proper comfortable area with good rest and catering facilities for transfer passengers to while away a few hours make it an airport to avoid. It is not attractive and undermines Kenya Airways’ massive investment in developing an effective interconnecting network .The airline’s fleet is projected to triple in size to 107 aircraft by 2021.
Ethiopian Airlines planned growth mirrors the scale of Kenya Airways. By 2025 the fleet will almost triple to 121 aircraft but the investment objectives are wider and the airline is keeping ahead of the game. New hangar space and expansion to training facilities are already being built.
Trends in fleet composition are becoming apparent. Gone are the days of automatic 130 seat Boeing 737 acquisitions in the region. Kenya Airways anticipates a fleet dominated in 2021 by 32 Boeing 787s and 31 E190s. Rwandair has ordered 2 new CRJ900NGs plus 2 on option. In Africa is the 100 seat jet aircraft set to become the new default option?
Whilst foreign carriers steadily increase their spread and frequency of operations across the continent, the past two months have seen some withdrawals. Malaysia Airlines is to cease Cape Town services and Iberia, Johannesburg though in neither case is the effect on overall route offerings from these places significant. Kuala Lumpur was never a major destination in its own right and Singapore Airlines’ services to its near neighbour more than offset its loss. Madrid is well enough served from South Africa via a number of indirect routings and was never in itself a great producer of incremental traffic. Having served Entebbe for a few weeks, Gulf Air is to pull out once more but again Emirates and Qatar Airways daily services into the country easily cover any gaps. All three of the downsizing carriers are ‘re-assessing’ networks as economic pressures back home intensify. Gulf Air’s proposed Juba service has also been put on hold.
Recent start-up ASky of Togo is experiencing its first headwinds. Well supported by Ethiopian Airlines as 40% shareholder and management team, the Chairman has commented on the difficulties of securing route and frequency expansions with neighbouring countries. The ‘African Open Skies’ envisaged in the Yamoussoukro Decision, born 40 years ago, remain elusive. The local market nationalistically also sees Asky as ‘an extension of Ethiopian’, less as a national carrier. As is too often the case on the continent ,being part of a successful wider African entity seems to hold no local attraction. Hopefully this is not the first chink in a breakdown of the cross border relationship but there are many precedents. SAA and Air Tanzania in East Africa and Royal Air Maroc and Air Senegal in the west, are two recent examples. The process is definately not new though. Going much further back to the late 1950s and 60s ,we saw the demise of East African, West African and Central African , all of which might have now been substantial ,strong and significant businesses if they had survived. In all cases, local national pride played a substantial part.
Past difficulties between SN Brussels and DRC parties appear to have been put aside and Lubumbashi-based Korongo Airlines is to launch in April with SN as 70% shareholder in the new joint-venture with a small fleet of BAe146 and B737 leased from SN.
And there have been failures .....As in our last African roundup ,having defied financial and other gravities for so long, Air Zimbabwe has been disbanded by the shareholder, the Government. On paper a phoenix company has been formed but there is no clarity on future operations.(See more below)
After a bright start three years ago, Zambia’s Zambezi Airlines has ceased operations and low cost Velvet Sky of South Africa survived for only a few months. The culprit was as ever undercapitalisation at the start and the cash simply ran out.
1. EAST AFRICA
African Express Airways (Kenya) plans the extension of its MD82 Nairobi–Mogadishu– Berbera route to Abu Dhabi from 19 May 2012. (Mar2012)
Air Tanzania. A Government inquiry has been launched into 2007 USD200m lease of single A320. The company now plans to add a Q300 and a B737 during next 6 months for network growth or , more accurately , just to stay in business. An alternative the Government could consider though is to refuse further investment and leave PrecisionAir and any other independents to provide Tanzania’s air services at no cost to the nation. (Feb 2012)
Air Uganda / Rwandair have dropped their Entebbe–Kigali codeshare and both carriers are pursuing independent route frequency increases (Feb2012)
Ethiopian Airlines plans significant growth up to 2025. Staff will be up 300% to 16,899, fleet size from current 45 to 112, and destinations from 79 to 121. The staff number growth looks worrying and out of line with fleet or network increases. Perhaps someone got the numbers wrong? (Mar2012)
Juba Air (South Sudan) is arranging US$40m funding to begin operations mid-2012 with a single B727. Good thing they’ve struck oil. 727s like it. On the face of it this doesn’t look like a good start. (Mar2012)
Kenya Airways issued a profit warning for March 2012 year-end. Earnings are estimated to be ‘at least’ 25% lower than 2011 year-end. Mid-east turmoil, Euro crisis and rising fuel prices are blamed. No mention of current reports of poor cabin service or Nairobi airport being overstretched and unappealing.(See above)(Feb 2012)
Kenya Airways launched a joint KQ/KLM B747F cargo operation with Martinair aircraft. 2 services a week Amsterdam-Guangzhou-Nairobi-Lagos-Nairobi-Amsterdam. Kenya Airways plans a fleet of 12 freighters within 10yrs. (Feb 2012)
Kenya Airways has followed Ethiopian Airlines in suspending Malawi Kwacha sales due to acute foreign exchange shortages in Malawi inhibiting hard currency remittances. There is no point of earning money that can’t be used. Lilongwe–Nairobi frequencies have also been cut due to a general fall in Malawi air travel demand, partly caused by the country being at loggerheads with at least one major aid donor. If, following the death of President Bingu Wa Mutharika on 6th April, the country mends some of its international bridges, business could improve again.(Feb 2012)
Kenya Airways from May 2012 will start four weekly B763 services between Nairobi and Delhi. (Mar 2012)
Precision Air , 49% owned by Kenya Airways, has increased its Dar es Salaam –Nairobi frequencies to five daily. Kenya Airways itself has reduced its own services to twice daily but the combined product gives the route what it- and numerous others in Africa,- need most. Frequency rather than sheer capacity. This greatly facilitates and stimulates high yield business traffic both locally and within the imemdiate region. Dar es Salaam is increasingly well served by the Gulf carriers and the fast growing Turkish. (March 2012)
Precision Air is taking delivery of a leased B733 for resumption of flights to Johannesburg. It is also to begin serving Moroni (Comoros) thrice weekly from June 2012 and the Dar–es salaam/Lilongwe/Harare/Dar es salaam triangle thereby adding journey opportunities on the intermediate sectors as well. An ATR is to to based at Bukoba for lakeside Kigoma and Musoma operations. For the first time since the 1970s demise of East African , Tanzania domestic and local cross border links are rising above those of more than 30 years ago. It is a very encouraging development. (Mar2012)
Rwandair is selling two CRJ200s to be replaced with 2 new CRJ900NextGen in late 2012,the first of the type in Africa and despite its much higher ownership costs, potentially much more profitable due so its higher capacity/revenue earning capability. (Mar 2012)
2. SOUTH / CENTRAL AFRICA
1Time of South Africa is launching twice weekly Johannesburg—Mombasa services to add to its Zanzibar and Livingstone international network. All are aimed at the low yield South African tour market,-both groups and individuals. It is also starting twice daily MD83 services from Johannesburg (Lanseria) on the fiercely competitive and frequency rich Capetown and Durban routes. One question is whether Lanseria really can wean enough customers off their habitual familiarity with Johannesburg’s main airport (O.R. Tambo)and whether twice daily can hack it in the face of virtual shuttles by SAA and BA/Comair/Kulula (Feb 2012)
1time CEO Rodney James stepped down along with Executive Director Michael Kaminski. No reasons were given for this, not even “wishing to spend more time with their families” or “to seek new opportunities” (Mar 2012)
Air Cemac(Congo Brazaville)’s multi-year delayed start-up, co-owned by Cameroon, Central Africa Republic, Chad, Equatorial Guinea, and Gabon, has ended its accord with SAA due to ‘deep differences of opinion’. It is seeking new strategic partner ‘within one month’. No candidates come immediately to mind.(Feb 2012)
Air Congo (Democratic Republic of Congo) born out of Hewa Bora, has received a MD82 and has pledged to ‘destroy’ 5 elderly and even less fuel efficient B727s (Mar2012).
Air Malawi Government has said that the B735 is be sold to fund the return to service of the venerable owned B733 ”Kwacha”. Both aircraft have been held since 2008 at SAA Johannesburg due unpaid maintenance bills. Short of aircraft, the airline has reintroduced Lilongwe- Nairobi services with a leased CRJ100. Although served by Ethiopian, Kenya Airways and SAA, landlocked Malawi itself still lacks direct long haul services and would do well to try to attract the attention of one of the Middle East hub carriers to give it better access to worldwide destinations for both passenger and freight traffic. (Feb 2012)
Air Mauritius is to draw in its horns and reduce costs by cancelling services to Milan, Sydney and Melbourne in June 2012 and to Geneva, Frankfurt, Durban, Bangalore and Munich in October 2012 due to “network restructuring” . Presumably the government is saying it can not go on funding losses at the present rate. As part of reorganising its route and capacity portfolio the airline is to boost Johannesburg to twice daily but will withdraw from Durban and Capetown. This makes sense as selling beach holidays to people who already have their own was never as lucrative as it was to the Johannesburg and other inland South African city dwellers.(March 2012)
Air Namibia has ordered two new A319s to join its 2 leased A319s,2 A340-300 and 3 Embraer ERJ135s (Feb 2012)
Air Namibia is launching 4 weekly Windhoek-Harare and 3 weekly Windhoek-Gaberone services with ERJ135 aircraft in May. Next up will be Livingstone services starting in October 2012. With the demise of Air Zimbabwe, Harare is seeing something of a revival courtesy of foreign carriers, something predicted and recommended by Airnthere several months ago. Not having a national carrier to protect can do wonders for a country’s overall air service coverage options-at no cost to the government. (Mar2012)
Air Seychelles is to receive USD11.2m from the Seychelles Government in the first quarter of2012 plus USD10m from July 2012 in accordance with the agreement which also saw Etihad acquiring a 40% holding for USD20m. (Feb 2012). Also as part of the Etihad deal Air Seychelles is launching B763 services linking Seychelles and Abu Dhabi. There are also plans to introduce 2 weekly A332s to Beijing from early 2013. The Chinese labour market in Africa will be the main target. The Chinese do not have a large taste for beach holidays and generally prefer places with substantial shopping opportunities,-often to buy designer labelled items actually manufactured in their home country. (Mar 2012).
Air Zimbabwe. As mentioned above, the company, at least in its previous form, is no more although it’s unlikely that we have seen the end of it. A final straw was a strike by the pilots and USD35m pay is said to be outstanding to all staff. Operations were finally suspended “indefinately “on 20 Feb. The Acting CEO( there’s a hospital pass of a job) blamed cash problems. Clearly he is not given to exaggeration. The company was then disbanded by the Zimbabwe Government and a new state company Air Zimbabwe Private Ltd was formed. The government retains Air Zimbabwe assets and liabilites but their enthusaism for its liabilities is less than clear. A strategic investor is to be sought but as at the same time the government is saying that foreign companies operating in the country must be 51% Zimbabwe owned this won’t be easy especially as the rights of former staff and creditors in the event of such an apparent transfer of undertakings could be contentious.(Mar2012)
Blue Sky of Botswana awaits ‘last documents’ from the country’s Civil Aviation Authority to start operagtions. Meanwhile a B737 in Blue Sky livery is parked at Gaborone and a second B737 identified. The company claims to have a “competitive” rather than low cost business model (Feb2012)
BA franchise ,Comair has secured US Ex-Im financing via Rand Merchant Bank for 4 new B737-800s. (Feb 2012) .Meanwhile in a joint venture with EADS, the company has opened a pilot and maintenance staff training centre for ATR aircraft in Johannesburg. Simulators are included. 85 ATR’s now fly with 32 airlines in 20 African states so it should have a good market if its pricing and quality are right. (Mar2012
SAA is seeking USD 518-777m recapitalization from its shareholder, the South African government for operational costs, fleet renewal and funding business growth, says CFO Wolf Meyer. It has also secured guarantee from a private bank for USD45m to cover ‘air service license responsibilities’. Short term plans include additional long-haul aircraft which will raise the fleet total from 24 to 31 over 5 years (Feb 2012)
Sol Air (Zimbabwe) is new carrier and was granted AOC on 28Jan2012. Moving into ground vacated at least temporarily by Air Zimbabwe it plans domestic and regional routes starting with single B1900D ,later adding CRJ700 and ATR72 aircraft . The launch of services was aimed March 2012. The MD is Nkosilathi Sibanda (Feb 2012)
SonAir of Angola, owned by the nation's national oil company the Sonangol Group, has provided a 747 charter for the British Prime Minister, David Cameron and his entourage of business people to Japan,Indonesia and Malaysia in April. The airline itself has been on the EU's list of banned carriers since 2008 but its 747 operation is contracted out to the US FAA regulated company Atlas Air, the UK arm of which operates BA's London Stansted based freighter network. (April 2012)
TAAG planning to replace to replace three B732s. These veteran stalwarts, cheap to own but heavy on maintainence and fuel, are now fast disappearing from their last strongholds in Africa. (Feb 2012)
TAAG will launch B777-300ER services between Luanda and Dubai from 25 March 2012 (Mar 2012).
Velvet Sky of South Africa .BP has initiated a court liquidation action over a breach of USD4m fuel debt repayments agreement. It also faces cash difficulties with SAA Technical. The already crowded Johannesburg- Durban-Capetown-Johannesburg routes have been suspended but may be resumed in April 2012. (Mar 2012)
Zambezi Airlines’ fleet of 3 leased B737-500 has been re-possessed by GECAS duto to USD2m fees unpaid. The airline has in any case been grounded by the Zambian Government since Nov 2011 over ‘safety concerns’. (Feb 2012)
3. WEST AFRICA
Air Cote d’Ivoire: Air France's CEO has re-commited to an April 2012 launch with 2 leased A319s .Air France/KLM (also a substantial investor in Kenya Airways)is to hold 35% jointly with AKFED. Ivory Coast's Government will hold 51%, local investors 14% as “Defensive move against increasing foreign operator presence,–Turkish, SN Brussels, Emirates”. While Air France must have serious and understandable concerns about the diversion of business away from its Paris hub, the horse though may have very willingly bolted and not all Ivoirians are happy at what they see as French involvement/intervention in the country’s business.(Feb 2012)
Air Taraba (Nigeria),the official airline of Taraba State, has received its first aircraft an ERJ145 (Mar 2012)
Arik Air has suspended daily B738 services between Lagos and Johannesburg. There has been official Nigerian indignation over South African Port Health refusal of entry to 50 Arik passengers on 2 Mar due to alleged fake yellow fever certificates. In reality the issue runs deeper and includes serious South African concerns about illegal Nigerian immigration which is causing disquiet at home. The airline is also to cancel daily operations from Abuja to Heathrow in April 2012 due to difficulties in obtaining Heathrow slots. This issue has been a bone of contention between numerous governments and the UK for many years. Air Services Agreements provide for free and equal access to each others’ markets and to most countries this means access to Heathrow to put their carriers on the same competitive footing as BA and Virgin. The UK contends that no particular London airport is guaranteed and it has no control over Heathrow slot allocations. Technically they are correct but the strong feeling this arouses is there and has been since at least the 1970s. Arik’s move is likely to be calculated to up the ante and so far it has been successful as the UK carriers have been threatened with retaliation. Maybe a spell of BA and Virgin being directed to Lagos(Pt Harcourt) will help resolve the issue. (March 2012)
ASKY of Togo is to receive 3 new Q400NextGen. 40% shareholder ET has placed the order, presumably to get the best deal and obtain aircraft identical with their own which makes good sense from the engineering aspect. (Feb 2012)
Fastjet, the proposed Stelios/Fly540/(new)Lonrho all-jet,low-cost carrier plans its West African base to in Accra and to start with 5 aircraft growing to 15 within 2 years.(Feb 2012)
Starbow Airlines of Ghana has leased a further 2 BAe146 for delivery in May 2012 to launch regional schedules from Accra to Abidjan, Ouagadougou, Cotonou and Monrovia. If Fastjet does come into being it could find the Ghanian as well as the East African skies a little more crowded than appears at first sight.(Feb 2012)
TACV (Cape Verde) anticipates privatization by the end of 2012 (Feb 2012)
TACV (Cape Verde) is to add 2 B738s in May/June 2012. A B767 is planned to replace the B752 on Boston services at end 2012. (Feb 2012)
4. NORTH AFRICA
Syphax Airlines (Tunisia)is a Sfax-based start-up planned for Mar2012 with 2 leased A319 currently undergoing C checks and repainting at CSA Technics. (Feb 2012)
Tunisair Express is adding 2 weekly CRJ900s flying Tunis-Sfax-Misrata to its current thrice weekly Tunis-Sfax-Tripoli programme. (Feb 2012)
5. NON-AFRICAN AIRLINES
Austrian Airlines to resume flights from Vienna to Tripoli on 25 March 2012. (Feb2012)
Emirates has signed a A330 line maintenance contract with Direct Maintenance (Netherlands)a newcomer at Lusaka certified by both EASA and the UAE CAA. (Feb 2012).
Emirates has increased its Dubai-Tunis frequency to daily and A330-200s are replaced by an A340-500 (Feb 2012)
Etihad joins the Lagos fray in July 2012 by launching six times a week A330-200s between Abu Dhabi and Lagos. The target market, as ever, will be largely Nigerian traders shuttling between their Lagos outlets and Middle and Far East suppliers.(Feb 2012)
KLM has postponed the restart of B737-700 Tripoli services until 01 May 2012. (Mar 2012)
Lufthansa is also resuming Tripoli services as is Qatar Airways. (Feb 2012)
Qatar Airways is extending its daily Entebbe flights to Kigali from 21 March. It will have local Entebbe/Kigale rights thus strengthening this city pair which will now have 54 flights a week each way including a double daily by Ethiopian.(Feb 2012)
Royal Jordanian has postponed planned Amma-Lagos-Accra services until June 2012. (Feb 2012). It will also start E195 operations between Amman and Misrata, Libya. (Feb 2012)
Saudi Arabian Airlines on 17th February suspended Tunis services (Feb 2012)
Singapore Airlines Cargo has launched a B747F service from Singapore to Nairobi and Lagos as part of circular Singapore/Gulf/Africa/India/Singapore routing. This is SQ's first appearance in sub Saharan Africa north of the Limpopo. (Feb 2012)
6. MISCELLANEOUS
AFRAA hosted an “Aviation Suppliers and Stakeholders Convention” in Nairobi 7-9 Mar.(Feb 2012)
Ghana is to seek USD741m investment for development of 5 national airports.(Feb 2012)
Ghana CAA Director General has warned that international airlines will face ‘tough measures’ if they fail to charge ‘moderate fares’ and to provide ‘quality service’ (Mar12)
Nairobi JKIA Airport expansion project progress remains very slow (see above). It seems that some of the financing for the complete project is yet to be secured despite its importance and urgency to the national economy. Just half or quarter doing it would be disastrous. It feels as if we have been here before. (Feb 2012)
Nigeria,-The Director General of the Nigerian CAA has called for investment from government and the private sector in new airport technology and facilities New maintenance hangars, ground handling, training and simulators specifically mentioned. Bearing in mind Nigeria’s enormous oil revenues and its potential both as a business destination and regional hub it’s lack of user friendly world class airport with good surface transport links is one of the continent’s tragedies.(Feb 2012)
South Africa: South African airport operator ACSA plus two Brazilian partners have won a 20 year concession to manage Guarulhos, Sao Paulo’s international gateway, with a USD9bn bid plus USD2.5bn capital investment. (Mar 2012)
Tanzania The European Investment Bank is to provide €50m over 20years to upgrade and expand the domestic airports at Kigoma, Bukoba, Tabora, Shinyanga and Sumbawanga. That’s an average of 10 million per airport for each of the 5 essential low volume low frequency airports. It looks expensive.(Feb 2012)
John Williams
6 April 2012
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Saturday, 31 March 2012
UK Rail: New St Pancras and and New Kings Cross an old problem and another opportunity.
Just below the surface in London N1 there is a bright newly refurbished and extended joint Underground and Thameslink station called,-as it long has been,-Kings Cross St Pancras.
A few feet above it are,-also as there have always been,-two entirely separate and very important main line stations, Kings Cross and St Pancras. They are at the most 100 yards/metres apart across a road and a gap without shelter from the elements. Kings Cross serves eastern England apart from the almost entirely separate domain of East Anglia, the North East and eastern Scotland. St Pancras is the home of trains to the central Midlands and, crucially, Paris, Brussells and then the rest of Europe and even beyond (Vladivostock anyone?)via connections on and off Eurostar. One might assume a fair number of passengers connecting from one station to the other via, thanks to the rebuilding, an easy, warm, weatherproof no step dedicated physical link. If this were Hong Kong, there would be no question. Clearly signed,it would be in place with people and baggage trolleys flowing swiftly and effortlessly in both directions crossing the road below or above. Nobody would be batting an eyelid. Why take the plane when it's this easy? Sadly that formed no part of the new designs so unless people know where the lifts are and their way down into the underground station ,through its upper level, and back up again the other side, they continue to have to battle between the two , dodging in front of the taxis and the roadway traffic. Do that once in winter with a trolley laden with luggage and a couple of children and it's back to their local airports next time.
Separately both stations are now transformed and notwithstanding a few "You'll do it our way" features and people flows, and design and finish quirks, they are pleasant user friendly places to be rather than the former often scruffy austere downmarket utilities. They are well worth the huge investment that has recently gone into them and move the London terminal part of rail travel on their routes into a new era. They are also attractive to all market segments. It's just a shame that the word though is "separately".
What chance therefore for the decades overdue provision of a bright, light, spacious underground walkway,-with moving pavements,-between these two stations which house HS1 and their very near neighbour Euston,just along the main road. Euston, the third of the north orientated trio will have HS2 to the West Midlands ,the North West and Scotland? At the moment it is as if it were on a different planet. It too though is due for extensive modernisation and sorting out. What chance here for truly joined up thinking? Could the UK have an infusion of Hong Kong "Go for it" designing, planning and doing? Three stations virtually rolled into one massive rail hub. It's an opportunity waiting to be grasped. Can the UK think that big?
A few feet above it are,-also as there have always been,-two entirely separate and very important main line stations, Kings Cross and St Pancras. They are at the most 100 yards/metres apart across a road and a gap without shelter from the elements. Kings Cross serves eastern England apart from the almost entirely separate domain of East Anglia, the North East and eastern Scotland. St Pancras is the home of trains to the central Midlands and, crucially, Paris, Brussells and then the rest of Europe and even beyond (Vladivostock anyone?)via connections on and off Eurostar. One might assume a fair number of passengers connecting from one station to the other via, thanks to the rebuilding, an easy, warm, weatherproof no step dedicated physical link. If this were Hong Kong, there would be no question. Clearly signed,it would be in place with people and baggage trolleys flowing swiftly and effortlessly in both directions crossing the road below or above. Nobody would be batting an eyelid. Why take the plane when it's this easy? Sadly that formed no part of the new designs so unless people know where the lifts are and their way down into the underground station ,through its upper level, and back up again the other side, they continue to have to battle between the two , dodging in front of the taxis and the roadway traffic. Do that once in winter with a trolley laden with luggage and a couple of children and it's back to their local airports next time.
Separately both stations are now transformed and notwithstanding a few "You'll do it our way" features and people flows, and design and finish quirks, they are pleasant user friendly places to be rather than the former often scruffy austere downmarket utilities. They are well worth the huge investment that has recently gone into them and move the London terminal part of rail travel on their routes into a new era. They are also attractive to all market segments. It's just a shame that the word though is "separately".
What chance therefore for the decades overdue provision of a bright, light, spacious underground walkway,-with moving pavements,-between these two stations which house HS1 and their very near neighbour Euston,just along the main road. Euston, the third of the north orientated trio will have HS2 to the West Midlands ,the North West and Scotland? At the moment it is as if it were on a different planet. It too though is due for extensive modernisation and sorting out. What chance here for truly joined up thinking? Could the UK have an infusion of Hong Kong "Go for it" designing, planning and doing? Three stations virtually rolled into one massive rail hub. It's an opportunity waiting to be grasped. Can the UK think that big?
Monday, 26 March 2012
That Codeshare Con..........Whatever happened to brand integrity and all the money spent on it?
What the.............?
"Good morning, this is a codeshare flight with Qantas,Kingfisher Airlines and Cathay Pacific".
"Oh good, I'd like the Kingfisher curry served by smiling Cathay Pacific cabin attendants and to be flown by a Qantas pilot please".
"Sorry..................."
"Good morning, this is a codeshare flight with Qantas,Kingfisher Airlines and Cathay Pacific".
"Oh good, I'd like the Kingfisher curry served by smiling Cathay Pacific cabin attendants and to be flown by a Qantas pilot please".
"Sorry..................."
Tuesday, 13 March 2012
African News Roundup .
A little belatedly we bring you.........
DECEMBER 2011 – JANUARY 2012
As always, much activity during these two months…………
2011 closed with commercial aviation on this vast continent edging its way further forward on the world aviation stage with some good developments particularly on the eastern side of its landmass. Kenya Airways and Ethiopian, each with large investment programmes, are now global businesses who happen to be based in Africa rather than Frankfurt or Singapore. Market volumes are growing and an increasing number of regional routes are seeing double or triple daily frequencies. The historic inhibitors of low demand and long sector distances resulting in once or twice weekly frequencies, are gradually being eroded and the Gulf carriers and Turkish in particular are increasingly offering one stop daily , or even more often, to almost anywhere in the world- a very strong proposition. International investment in new oil fields and other raw materials is attracting these non-African carriers to the continent. At the same time, new African airlines continue to be born. Some will thrive, others will falter, but competition will drive progress in efficiencies and product quality. 2011 was a valuable year of development.
2012 offers intriguing possibilities. Fleet renewals will be led by the Ethiopian's 787s with Kenya Airways' unhappily a little behind and possibly slipping further from late 2013 into early 2014. Modern fleets of Embraer E170/190 seies Boeing 777s, and ATR series 600s are entering service, while Ehtiopian have also added an A350 order. With these growing modern fleets MRO and training opportunities are opening. Ethiopian, for one, is investing in new hangars, new simulators and now has EASA 145 and 147 approvals. Significant third party revenues beckon.
Financial strength and sophistication is growing. Precision Air of Tanzania recently completed its IPO and is listing on the Dar es Salaam stock exchange. Kenya Airways is poised to launch a USD400mn rights issue to fund fleet and network expansion. It will have to pay attention to its cabin and ground service however if it is to maximise revenue from the investment.
Business models are maturing. Etihad is aquiring 40% of Air Seychelles and has signed a 5 year management contract. Such inward investment is rare on the continent and has a patchy history and in this case the strategic reason for it isn't clear. Potentially more dramatic is the grouping of Lonrho (Fly540) with Stelios Haji-Ionnanu of Easyjet. Stelios is quoted as ‘wanting to bring the LCC model to Africa’, though it isn't clear quite what he means by this. FastJet is the putative name for the new carrier whilst the project progresses through the feasibility study stage. Bases are envisaged in Kenya,central Africa and West Africa which is why Fly540 with its existing operations in Kenya,Angola and Ghana is seen as a good starting point. Its house colours are even orange so that should save some paint. Competition is thereby flagged for Kenya Airways’ stated intentions to launch low cost subsidiary Jambo in the East African regional market and a vigorous response can be expected.
Meanwhile vibrant carriers such as Rwandair, Air Uganda and Precision Air continue to expand. ASky of Togo (Ethiopian Airlines 40% shareholding) is now well established and seeking investment to expand into a multi-hub operation. Air France-KLM with its 40% holding will be anticipating a successful launch of the new Air Ivoire. Star members Ethiopian, Egyptair and SAA are again talking of launching a new Central African carrier though quite where isn't clear. SA Express too is growth-minded and talking of expanding into West Africa with a Ghana based hub. Deterred by the politics and hassle factor, nobody new is talking of doing anything in Nigeria, theoretically the continent's best opportunity but fraught with complications, trip wires and other disincentives. AFRAA too is aiming at reforming and revitalising itself under a new Secretary General. A joint fuel-buying initiative has been launched with further developments planned. Initially 9 carriers have joined. For the first time AFRAA can offer a hard-edged benefit to the membership.
In southern Central Africa, Air Zimbabwe is now under ‘judicial management’,- effectively administration. A High Court appointee has taken control and the old Board of Directors has been stripped of all powers. Liquidation is anticipated …. or perhaps not. Whatever happens the brand is likely to reappear in some form, possibly mortgaged to Chinese interests. Fly now, pay (a lot) later.
1. EAST AFRICA
Air Africa International (Tanzania) is seeking scheduled service licences (Dec2011)
Air Burundi ordered 2 MA60 from Avic, China. (Dec2011)
Air Tanzania re-granted an AOC after 6months without operations. (Dec2011)
Air Uganda has added Zanzibar to its network (Dec2011)
Ethiopian Airlines has taken delivery of the first of five new B737-800s. A Boeing owned B787-800 visited Addis on 11th December as part of its first African tour.Ethiopian's first delivery of 10 is due in the second quarter of 2012 (Dec 2011).
Ethiopian Airlines on became full member of Star Alliance on December 12th.(Dec 2011)
Ethiopian Airlines is seeking investors to enable ASKY to become a ‘multi-hub African system’. Fellow Star members SAA and Egyptair have been named as possibles. Ethiopian owns 40% and now has a 5year management contract (Dec 2011)
Ethiopian Airlines continues to talk of a possible new Central African airline alongside SAA and Egyptair. Detailed plans yet to appear. (Dec 2011)
Ethiopian Airlines is considering ordering an additional 5x787. Five A330s are a possible alternative. The company is also negotiating with Bombardier for five new DaSH 8 Q400s. (Dec2011)
Ethiopian Airlines has achieved EASA part 147 approval for maintenance training plus part 145 approval for MRO activity on all EU registered aircraft (Dec 2011)
Ethiopian Airlines launched a thrice weekly Addis– Muscat service on 27 Dec 2011 (Dec2011)
Ethiopian Airlines also plans to start flying to Toronto in Mar2012 while at the same time evaluating a stronger presence in Asian markets, naming Singapore,Kuala Lumpur, Seoul and ‘more destinations in China’ as candidates (Jan2012)
Ethiopian Airlines has accepted the bid submitted by the Aviation Industry Corporation of China (Avic) to construct USD100m maintenance hangar. 900 days of construction are to star in mid-2012 (Jan 2012)
Fly 540 Kenya has ordered 2 ATR72s to join the fleet in Jan 2012 (Dec 2011)
Kenya Airways USD400m rights issue due in 1H2012 for fleet/network expansion (Dec 2011)
Kenya Airways faced ban from Sudan airspace unless Kenya High Court reversed decision to recognize the ICC arrest warrant for President Al-Bashir. The threat was subsequently lifted. (Dec 2011)
Kenya Airways is planning boost services Middle East points. Nairobi-Dubai provides 12% of their total revenue thanks to African traders and connecting traffic to points east. Beirut is to be added and Dubai frequencies will increase to 14 per week matching Emirates who with their high quality product and easy-to-use and pleasant Dubai hub are highly successful in all the African cities they serve. The other Gulf carriers, Qatar, Etihad and Gulf Air do well too. (Dec 2011)
Kenya Airways is seeking government permission to hire up to 70 probably fixed term contract expatriate flight crew to meet fleet growth. Work permits will be needed. Traditionally difficult union (KALPA) reaction is anticipated and could be a show stopper or at least make foreign pilots hesitant to sign on as working amidst a hostile atmosphere is not a great experience. (Dec 2011)
Precision Air's IPO closed with a disappointing uptake of 43% of shares (USD7m of a planned USD16m). Market doubts on future dividend levels and the parallel IPO of East African Breweries whose markets are much more assured are mooted as reasons. (Dec 2011)
Precision Air, like Kenya Airways,is now to list on the Dar es Salaam Stock Exchange. The carrier also submitted a new financial plan to raise capital due to initial IPO under-subscription mentioned above. (Dec 2011)
Precision Air has ordered 4 ATR42-600s and a single ATR72-600 with first delivery late in 2012. Their current fleet is 5 ATR72-500 2 ATR42-500,and 2 ATR42-300 . They have become Africa's largest ATR operator (Dec 11)
Precision Air:- The 2006 maintenance partnership with ATR has delivered 12 qualified Tanzanian nationals plus 24 in mid-training on the 3 year course. (Dec 2011)
The calm and festivity of Rwandair's inaugural 3 December flight to Lagos and Abijan was rudely interrupted by troops on the Abijan VIP ramp demanding substantial amounts of US dollars for ‘fuel and handling’. Happily this unscripted intervention was settled peacefully.( Dec 2011).
Rwandair has sold 2 CRJ200s to be replaced by larger regional type, possibly CRJ900s.(Jan 2012)
Rwandair :Girma Wake, ex CEO Ethiopian Airlines, is the newly appointed Board Chairman. (Jan 2012)
Air Uganda's new CEO, Kyle Haywood, announced plans for fleet growth in 2012-3 to expand regional and domestic operations to feed the growing number of Entebbe foreign long-haul operators. (These now include SN Brussells, BA, Emirates, Gulf Air, Turkish, Egyptair, SAA as well as the well established nearby hub operators Kenya Airways and Ethiopian)(Dec 2011)
ZanAir (Zanzibar)is seeking a Tanzanian scheduled service licence. Plans are unclear but presumably will start with the 25 minute Zanzibar-Dar es Salaam hop.(Dec 2011)
3. SOUTH / CENTRAL AFRICA
Air Botswana CEO envisiges Gaborone as a hub and network growth to Dubai, Dar es Salaam and other points. Whether this is realistic against the nearby overwhelming presence of Johannesburg is debatable but if aspirations are kept to high frequency regional links there are some real opportunities. In the early 1990s the airline started a spinal service with BAe 146 aircraft running Johannesburg-Gaberone-Harare-Lusaka/Lilongwe-Nairobi-Entebbe and given time this could have worked well thanks to high sector fares and lack of competition but a change of managment saw it abandoned before it had time to really become established and profitable. Some good ideas require persistance and nerve and initially deep pockets.(Dec 2011).
Air Botswana announced improved operational stability during 2012 as part of a campaign to regain ‘customer credibility’ (Dec 2011)
Air Malawi chalked up a USD6.6m loss in 2010. Their total debt is now US$59.8m and the Malawi government continues to drip-feed support. Like various consultants previously, Ernst & Young is advising the government on restructuring. The solitary ATR42 is now flying again but the two 737s remain impounded by SA Technical in Johannesburg due unpaid debts. SAA is now the sole operator between Johannesburg, Blantyre and Lilongwe. (Dec 2011)
Air Namibia will in April 2012 launch a four times weekly Windoek-Harare service and three weekly between Windhoek and Gaberone with an ERJ135. (Dec 2011)
One of the two Air Zimbabwe Boeing 767-200s was temporarily impounded at London/Gatwick by American General Supplies demanding a USD1.2m debt settlement. A Boeing 737-500 was also temporarily held at Johannesburg. (Dec 2011)
Air Zimbabwe suspended all operations to London and Johannesburg from 1st Jan due ‘financial and capacity reasons’. Flights to China,the DRC and Zambia where writs for debts are seemingly less likely continue. (Jan 2012)
Air Zimbabwe paid a USD200 ‘incentive’ to maintenance staff to resolve a Boeing 737-500 engine fault. The other 737-500 remains grounded for a corrosion check. All 3 MA60 are grounded as was at least temporarily a 767-200s. The actual operational fleet became therefore a single 767 and a 737.(Jan 2012)
Air Zimbabwe: On 17 Jan an A320-200 arrived in Harare ostensibly for the airline but the Acting CEO asserted that he is ‘not at liberty to discuss–it is a shareholder (ie government) matter’ (Jan 2012)
Air Zimbabwe was then placed under ‘judicial management’, a High Court appointee assumed control and the existing Board of Directors stripped of all powers. Liquidation was then anticipated, but again as above, watch this space. (Jan 2012)
Blue Sky (Botswana) plans an early 2012 start-up with up to 4x737s flying regional and domestic services. Blue Sky is born of Flying Mission Services, an operator of medical and mission services on contract to Botswana Ministry of Health. It also exists in local forms elsewhere in Africa.T he Managing Director of both companies is Mark Spicer. It is unclear what licenses/AOC Blue Sky has. (Dec 2011)
Comair of South Africa's Board has ended the top level structure which gave it two joint CEOs which emanated from the original involvement of two families. ‘Tough trading conditions demand single leadership’ is given as the reason. Erik Ventner has become the sole CEO and Gidon Novick has resigned from the company. Comair's two main arms are the BA franchise operation and the separate but complementary bright, upbeat low cost carrier Kulula. Both are success stories in a highly competitive market.(Dec1 2011)
LAM of Mozambique is anticipating purchase of two ‘Embraer aircraft’ in 2012. (Dec2011). Presumably these will be 170 or 190 series aircraft which they currently operate as far afield as Nairobi.
Proflight, Zambia’s main domestic carrier is to growi ts Jetstream 41 fleet from 2 to 7 during 2012 (Dec 2011)
SAA is launching twice weekly A319s to Pointe Noire, three a week to Kigali/Bujumbura and a thrice weekly Airbus 340-600 nonstop to Beijing (Jan 2012)
SAA's new CEO Siza Mzimela reported improved 2010/11 net profits of USD101m. 2012 challenges include ‘increased competition and Johannesburg baggage pilferage’, the bugbear of any hub carrier. SAA's low cost subsidiary, the striking and appropriately coloured Mango, is profitable. (Jan 2012)
Santaco Airlines( SA Taxi Assoc) applied for operating licence in Nov 2011 but has yet to seek AOC. Full operational launch pledged ‘before Easter 2012’. (Jan 2012)
Santaco Airlines President, Jabulani Mthembu, has been suspended pending resolution of ‘nepotism and financial irregularities’ allegations.(Jan12)
Zambesi Airlines' AOC has been restored but resumption of operations are dependent on meeting ‘other safety and financial requirements’. A USD2mn debt is owing to local National Airports Corporation. (Jan 2012)
3. WEST AFRICA
Air Nigeria is to acquire 2 A330-200 and 2 B737NGs during 2012. Fleet growth to 15is planned as is the construction of a maintenance facility and establishment of an MRO. (Jan 2012)
Air Nigeria hopes to restart London and Johannesburg services in mid 2012. (Jan 2012)
Arik Air of Nigeria planned a 6th Dec 2011 launch of CRJ900 flights between Lagos and 3 new destinations: Cotonou, Ouagadougou and Bamako, all via Dakar. Also being launhed are two weekly services between Lagos and Luanda.(Dec 2011)
ASKY (Togo) 40% owned by Ethiopian is seeking investors for growth to a ‘multi-hub African system’.(Dec 2011)
ASKY plans 2 additional 737-700s plus one Q400 in 2012. Ethiopian is negotiating for them negotiating.(Dec 2011)
ASKY's President, Gervais Djondo, spoke of ‘market perception difficulties’ arising from Ethiopian Airlines 40% shareholding and Management Contract. ASKY is seen as "an appendix (appendage surely?) of Ethiopian "-for which they should be delighted commercially, and and some of its managment are perhaps finding this irksome? If so that is unfortunate and unwise as Ethiopian is a very professional and well run business and they have a lot to learn from it. He also mentioned slow progress in securing regional frequency increases eg Nigeria. That is not a new experience for any airline in the region.(Dec 2011)
Camair-Co of Cameroon has reduced Paris flights from 6 to 4 per week, and added 3 a week instead to Lyons. 737-700s are used. Kinshasa has also been added to the network.(Dec 2011)
National Airways (Cameroon) plans re-launch with order for 2 MA60 from China. Good luck to them. It is a domestic network operator based in Yaounde. Previously it ceased operations with 2x 737-200s in 2009. (Dec 2011)
Okapi Airlines (DRC) on 23rd Nov 2011 launched domestic services with awet-leased B734 from Tailwinds, Turkey. Kinshasa – Lubumbashi/Kisangani/Mbuji Mayi is the initial network.(Dec 2011)
4. NORTH AFRICA
Afriqiyah plans a resumption of operations initially with a single A319 to Istanbul, Alexandria and Tunis.(Dec 2011)
Afriqiyah and Libyan Airlines have signed a maintenance agreements with AFI KLM Engineering and Maintainence to return their aircraft to service. Afriqiyah is to restore A320s/A330s and Libyan Airlines to restore seven A320-200s, including three on order, and two ATR42-500s. Air France Consulting is also involved.(Jan 2012)
Afriqiyah and Libyan Airlines: A govern,ent decision on the proposal to merge is anticipated in March 2012 followed by a 12 month implimentation process.(Many would argue that big bang mergers are better than slow and gradual,- think in extremis of the excrutiating long BEA/BOAC version). Privatization may then follow says the interim Transport Minister although realistically buyers may be hard to find.(Jan 2012)
Royal Air Maroc joined AEA, the Assosciation of European Airlines (Dec 2011)
Royal Air Maroc launched twice weekly B 737-800s between Casablanca-Luanda via Libreville, adding a TAAG codeshare for marketing and to ease the regulatory path. When, one wonders, will the apparent general two frequencies a week per carrier limit be abandoned by Angola or will protectionism to force business onto TAAG go on into the future? Also being launched are 5 737-800 weekly flights Bissau via Banjul. Again some useful new sectors appearing on the African map and hopefully with local sector traffic rights thrown in. Blinded sectors have been literally a waste of space ever since colonial times when for example East African flew blinded (ie unable to pick up local sector passengers) Blantyre-Salisbury(Harare) and Central African from Dar es Salaam to Nairobi. The losers ? Anyone trying to plan a multi sector itinerary,-ie business and aviation in general.(Dec 2011 )
Royal Air Maroc are disposing mix of 6 B737-500s/B767-300s so as to re-equip with a standard fleet of 9 B737-800s in 2012-14 .(Dec 2011)
5. NON AFRICAN AIRLINES
Blue Panorama(Italy),who are rumoured likely to merge with Alitalia are seeking to fill the gap left by Air Seychelles withdrawal from long-haul operations by launching Seychelles–Milan/Rome services.(Dec 2011)
British Airways plans to resume operations London Heathrow to Tripoli from May 2012 (Jan 2012)
Brussels Airlines is increasing frequencies to Douala, Yaounde, Abidjan, Nairobi and Bujumbura from April 2012 and Kinshasa is to become nonstop. Accra is likely to be left to Lufthansa.(Dec 2011)
Brussels Airlines is discontinuing the DRC Korongo Airlines joint venture due ‘problems with DRC authorities’. Where have we seen this before? Similar frustrations to Virgin Nigeria in Nigeria ? The disposal of the fleet of Belgian registered 2 BAE146s and 1 B737-300 is unclear. (Dec 2011)
Emirates through IATA is working with 23 different ATC units across Africa to upgrade systems enabling introduction of ‘flexible tracks’ on their ultra long haul 15 hour plus Dubai-Sao Paulo sectors. Fuel savings of 2% or more are hoped for. (Jan2012)
As noted above, Etihad has taken a USD20mn 40% stake in Air Seychelles as that carrier restructures into a solely regional carrier. As part of the arrangment, Etihad has signed a 5 year manament contract and already terminated a number of previous office holders. This may or may not be popular locally. Cramer Ball, previouly Etihad's Regional General Manager Asia and Australasia,has been appointed CEO and a codeshare agreement signed and Abu Dhabi-Seychelles frequencies will be increased to at least daily. Qatar are already in Seychelles with a daily A319 and Emirates with 11 weekly A340-500s.(Jan 2012)
Gulf Air has delayed its launch of Juba services until June 2012 (Jan 2012)
KLM has delayed the launch of twice weekly A330-200 flights to Luanda from November 2011 to March 2012 (Dec 2011)
KLM is to launch thrice weekly A330-200 services to Lusaka from May 2012 (Dec 2011)
Malaysian Airlines is to discontinue its 3 times weekly Kuala Lumpur-Johannesburg and twice weekly Kuala Lumpur- Capetown-Buenos Aires services. This still leaves the city with a four times weekly SIA service to Singapore although that is uncompetitive to north Asian cities such as Hong Kong against Emirates twice daily offerings. Both these routes were part of former Prime Minister Mahathir's pressure for the Malaysian flag to be seen wordwide. Unfortunately for the airline the government never paid them a subsidy to oblige. Ideally these and other uneconomic flag waving operations would have been flown under government contract to shield the airline from the losses. (Dec 2011)
Royal Jordanian launched twice weekly A319 services to Nairobi on 16th Dec 2011. Algiers and Lagos/Accra are to follow on 31 March 2012 while flights to Accra via Addis are also being considered.(Dec 2011)
Turkish Airlines, along with the Gulf fraternity one of the world's fastest growing carriers, has received the first of 15 737-900ERs on order for new thin routes to Africa. Their fleet now numbers 178 and is due to grow to 200. Turkey is geographically well placed against Emirates/GulfAir/Qatar and Etihad for Europe-Middle East and Africa business as it requires less of a detour than flying via the Gulf. (Dec 2011)
Turkish Airlines new 2012 operations are to include Abuja, Kano, Abidjan, Kinshasa and, Mogadishu The latter has now started .See previous Airnthere news item.(Jan 2012)
6. MISCELLANEOUS
AFRAA has announced that 9 airlines are signed up for phase 1 of a joint fuel buying agreement: Kenya Airways, Ethiopian Airlines, Air Malawi, Air Namibia, Air Seychelles, LAM Mozambique, Precision Air, Rwandair and TAAG Angola. There will be joint negotiation but individual contracts.(Jan 2012)
AFRAA's Secretry General has criticised the 1 Jan 2012 introduction of the European ETS ‘Carbon Tax’ claiming that third world countries were specifically exempted under the Kyoto Protocol (Jan 2012)
Fastjet A new, all-jet, low-cost carrier for Africa is proposed by Easyjet’s Stelios Haji-Ioannou with UK investment firm Rubicon with £14m launch funds. Fly 540 Group development is planned with the new (as opposed to Tiny Rowland's) Lonrho .Stelios seeks full control. East African Safari Express which ceased operations in December 2010 is also somewhere in the mix but there is a lot of fog about at the moment.(Jan 2012)
Kilimanjaro International Airport, which lies on the plains between Moshi and Arusha or Kilimanjaro and Meru for the mountaineers is to undergo US$28m rehabilitation starting 2013. It will be a 3 year programme partly funded by the Dutch Government. This will be the first upgrade since the opening in 1971. Much of its hoped for potential in attracting international long haul services full of tourists for Tanzania's northern safari circuit has not materialised although Ethiopian and KLM have consistently hung in there and persevered. BA tried it as an end sector doubling back from Dar es Salaam in the Tristar era but that didn't work,(a seven day crew slip can't have helped) whereas KLM do it on a triangular routing from Amsterdam continuing to Dar es salaam and returning nonstop to Holland. (Dec 2011)
Libya: Resumption of stalled work on Tripoli International Airport expansion is scheduled for ‘in next few months’. A new runway, 2 new terminals, and systems upgrades are planned. (Jan 2012)
Mauritania Nouakchott Airport is to be rebuilt over next 2 years. 2 runways are included (Dec 2011)
Nairobi's Jomo Kenyatta International( JKIA), the achilles heel of Kenya Airways network and frequency growth plans, is beginning to see physical building work on the new Kenya Airways Terminal or Unit 4, while within the existing two international units 1 and 2 refurbishment of floors and lighting is progressing along the very narrow concourse between the lines of identically provisioned duty free shops from what is the Kenya Airways end to the foreigners preferred gates. Currently it is just reaching KLM's preferred location but is two short of BA's. The latter appear to have been ousted from their former preference of boarding almost directly out of the only respectable airside catering facility, the Java House coffee shop.
Outside the airport itself the Kenya Airports Authority faces contempt of court action for the ‘barbaric’ demolition of ‘hundreds of homes’ on disputed land needed for planned airport development and for a security buffer between the airport and the outside world.The Airport Authority probably isn't too worried as the deed has been done along with a similar one around the boundary of the extremely busy movements) closer to town Wilson Airport. Both are hardly reversable.( March 2012)
The Federal Airports Authority of Nigeria is to upgrade 12 Nigerian airports in a USD120m project. New domestic terminals are underway at Abuja and Lagos. Ideally a modern domestic facility would have been built adjacent to the international terminal but this appears not to be the case and a messy off-airport transfer is likely to remain the link between the two. A useful model could be Australia's Sydney where the linking coaches operate between international and domestics within the airport fences rather than outside it giving a much more satisfactory product away from any hassles or road congestion in the outside world. (Dec 2011)
Tanzania: Swissport's handling monopoly has ended at Dar es Salaam airport following persistent pressure from regional carriers over charges being higher than the regional average.(Dec 2011)
Uganda's new Bugesera airport project has selected 11 bidders from 33 Expressions of Interest. That's a long shortlist. A 3 year construction is anticipated on a build, operate, transfer principle with a late 2012 start.(Jan 2012)
John Williams January 2012
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DECEMBER 2011 – JANUARY 2012
As always, much activity during these two months…………
2011 closed with commercial aviation on this vast continent edging its way further forward on the world aviation stage with some good developments particularly on the eastern side of its landmass. Kenya Airways and Ethiopian, each with large investment programmes, are now global businesses who happen to be based in Africa rather than Frankfurt or Singapore. Market volumes are growing and an increasing number of regional routes are seeing double or triple daily frequencies. The historic inhibitors of low demand and long sector distances resulting in once or twice weekly frequencies, are gradually being eroded and the Gulf carriers and Turkish in particular are increasingly offering one stop daily , or even more often, to almost anywhere in the world- a very strong proposition. International investment in new oil fields and other raw materials is attracting these non-African carriers to the continent. At the same time, new African airlines continue to be born. Some will thrive, others will falter, but competition will drive progress in efficiencies and product quality. 2011 was a valuable year of development.
2012 offers intriguing possibilities. Fleet renewals will be led by the Ethiopian's 787s with Kenya Airways' unhappily a little behind and possibly slipping further from late 2013 into early 2014. Modern fleets of Embraer E170/190 seies Boeing 777s, and ATR series 600s are entering service, while Ehtiopian have also added an A350 order. With these growing modern fleets MRO and training opportunities are opening. Ethiopian, for one, is investing in new hangars, new simulators and now has EASA 145 and 147 approvals. Significant third party revenues beckon.
Financial strength and sophistication is growing. Precision Air of Tanzania recently completed its IPO and is listing on the Dar es Salaam stock exchange. Kenya Airways is poised to launch a USD400mn rights issue to fund fleet and network expansion. It will have to pay attention to its cabin and ground service however if it is to maximise revenue from the investment.
Business models are maturing. Etihad is aquiring 40% of Air Seychelles and has signed a 5 year management contract. Such inward investment is rare on the continent and has a patchy history and in this case the strategic reason for it isn't clear. Potentially more dramatic is the grouping of Lonrho (Fly540) with Stelios Haji-Ionnanu of Easyjet. Stelios is quoted as ‘wanting to bring the LCC model to Africa’, though it isn't clear quite what he means by this. FastJet is the putative name for the new carrier whilst the project progresses through the feasibility study stage. Bases are envisaged in Kenya,central Africa and West Africa which is why Fly540 with its existing operations in Kenya,Angola and Ghana is seen as a good starting point. Its house colours are even orange so that should save some paint. Competition is thereby flagged for Kenya Airways’ stated intentions to launch low cost subsidiary Jambo in the East African regional market and a vigorous response can be expected.
Meanwhile vibrant carriers such as Rwandair, Air Uganda and Precision Air continue to expand. ASky of Togo (Ethiopian Airlines 40% shareholding) is now well established and seeking investment to expand into a multi-hub operation. Air France-KLM with its 40% holding will be anticipating a successful launch of the new Air Ivoire. Star members Ethiopian, Egyptair and SAA are again talking of launching a new Central African carrier though quite where isn't clear. SA Express too is growth-minded and talking of expanding into West Africa with a Ghana based hub. Deterred by the politics and hassle factor, nobody new is talking of doing anything in Nigeria, theoretically the continent's best opportunity but fraught with complications, trip wires and other disincentives. AFRAA too is aiming at reforming and revitalising itself under a new Secretary General. A joint fuel-buying initiative has been launched with further developments planned. Initially 9 carriers have joined. For the first time AFRAA can offer a hard-edged benefit to the membership.
In southern Central Africa, Air Zimbabwe is now under ‘judicial management’,- effectively administration. A High Court appointee has taken control and the old Board of Directors has been stripped of all powers. Liquidation is anticipated …. or perhaps not. Whatever happens the brand is likely to reappear in some form, possibly mortgaged to Chinese interests. Fly now, pay (a lot) later.
1. EAST AFRICA
Air Africa International (Tanzania) is seeking scheduled service licences (Dec2011)
Air Burundi ordered 2 MA60 from Avic, China. (Dec2011)
Air Tanzania re-granted an AOC after 6months without operations. (Dec2011)
Air Uganda has added Zanzibar to its network (Dec2011)
Ethiopian Airlines has taken delivery of the first of five new B737-800s. A Boeing owned B787-800 visited Addis on 11th December as part of its first African tour.Ethiopian's first delivery of 10 is due in the second quarter of 2012 (Dec 2011).
Ethiopian Airlines on became full member of Star Alliance on December 12th.(Dec 2011)
Ethiopian Airlines is seeking investors to enable ASKY to become a ‘multi-hub African system’. Fellow Star members SAA and Egyptair have been named as possibles. Ethiopian owns 40% and now has a 5year management contract (Dec 2011)
Ethiopian Airlines continues to talk of a possible new Central African airline alongside SAA and Egyptair. Detailed plans yet to appear. (Dec 2011)
Ethiopian Airlines is considering ordering an additional 5x787. Five A330s are a possible alternative. The company is also negotiating with Bombardier for five new DaSH 8 Q400s. (Dec2011)
Ethiopian Airlines has achieved EASA part 147 approval for maintenance training plus part 145 approval for MRO activity on all EU registered aircraft (Dec 2011)
Ethiopian Airlines launched a thrice weekly Addis– Muscat service on 27 Dec 2011 (Dec2011)
Ethiopian Airlines also plans to start flying to Toronto in Mar2012 while at the same time evaluating a stronger presence in Asian markets, naming Singapore,Kuala Lumpur, Seoul and ‘more destinations in China’ as candidates (Jan2012)
Ethiopian Airlines has accepted the bid submitted by the Aviation Industry Corporation of China (Avic) to construct USD100m maintenance hangar. 900 days of construction are to star in mid-2012 (Jan 2012)
Fly 540 Kenya has ordered 2 ATR72s to join the fleet in Jan 2012 (Dec 2011)
Kenya Airways USD400m rights issue due in 1H2012 for fleet/network expansion (Dec 2011)
Kenya Airways faced ban from Sudan airspace unless Kenya High Court reversed decision to recognize the ICC arrest warrant for President Al-Bashir. The threat was subsequently lifted. (Dec 2011)
Kenya Airways is planning boost services Middle East points. Nairobi-Dubai provides 12% of their total revenue thanks to African traders and connecting traffic to points east. Beirut is to be added and Dubai frequencies will increase to 14 per week matching Emirates who with their high quality product and easy-to-use and pleasant Dubai hub are highly successful in all the African cities they serve. The other Gulf carriers, Qatar, Etihad and Gulf Air do well too. (Dec 2011)
Kenya Airways is seeking government permission to hire up to 70 probably fixed term contract expatriate flight crew to meet fleet growth. Work permits will be needed. Traditionally difficult union (KALPA) reaction is anticipated and could be a show stopper or at least make foreign pilots hesitant to sign on as working amidst a hostile atmosphere is not a great experience. (Dec 2011)
Precision Air's IPO closed with a disappointing uptake of 43% of shares (USD7m of a planned USD16m). Market doubts on future dividend levels and the parallel IPO of East African Breweries whose markets are much more assured are mooted as reasons. (Dec 2011)
Precision Air, like Kenya Airways,is now to list on the Dar es Salaam Stock Exchange. The carrier also submitted a new financial plan to raise capital due to initial IPO under-subscription mentioned above. (Dec 2011)
Precision Air has ordered 4 ATR42-600s and a single ATR72-600 with first delivery late in 2012. Their current fleet is 5 ATR72-500 2 ATR42-500,and 2 ATR42-300 . They have become Africa's largest ATR operator (Dec 11)
Precision Air:- The 2006 maintenance partnership with ATR has delivered 12 qualified Tanzanian nationals plus 24 in mid-training on the 3 year course. (Dec 2011)
The calm and festivity of Rwandair's inaugural 3 December flight to Lagos and Abijan was rudely interrupted by troops on the Abijan VIP ramp demanding substantial amounts of US dollars for ‘fuel and handling’. Happily this unscripted intervention was settled peacefully.( Dec 2011).
Rwandair has sold 2 CRJ200s to be replaced by larger regional type, possibly CRJ900s.(Jan 2012)
Rwandair :Girma Wake, ex CEO Ethiopian Airlines, is the newly appointed Board Chairman. (Jan 2012)
Air Uganda's new CEO, Kyle Haywood, announced plans for fleet growth in 2012-3 to expand regional and domestic operations to feed the growing number of Entebbe foreign long-haul operators. (These now include SN Brussells, BA, Emirates, Gulf Air, Turkish, Egyptair, SAA as well as the well established nearby hub operators Kenya Airways and Ethiopian)(Dec 2011)
ZanAir (Zanzibar)is seeking a Tanzanian scheduled service licence. Plans are unclear but presumably will start with the 25 minute Zanzibar-Dar es Salaam hop.(Dec 2011)
3. SOUTH / CENTRAL AFRICA
Air Botswana CEO envisiges Gaborone as a hub and network growth to Dubai, Dar es Salaam and other points. Whether this is realistic against the nearby overwhelming presence of Johannesburg is debatable but if aspirations are kept to high frequency regional links there are some real opportunities. In the early 1990s the airline started a spinal service with BAe 146 aircraft running Johannesburg-Gaberone-Harare-Lusaka/Lilongwe-Nairobi-Entebbe and given time this could have worked well thanks to high sector fares and lack of competition but a change of managment saw it abandoned before it had time to really become established and profitable. Some good ideas require persistance and nerve and initially deep pockets.(Dec 2011).
Air Botswana announced improved operational stability during 2012 as part of a campaign to regain ‘customer credibility’ (Dec 2011)
Air Malawi chalked up a USD6.6m loss in 2010. Their total debt is now US$59.8m and the Malawi government continues to drip-feed support. Like various consultants previously, Ernst & Young is advising the government on restructuring. The solitary ATR42 is now flying again but the two 737s remain impounded by SA Technical in Johannesburg due unpaid debts. SAA is now the sole operator between Johannesburg, Blantyre and Lilongwe. (Dec 2011)
Air Namibia will in April 2012 launch a four times weekly Windoek-Harare service and three weekly between Windhoek and Gaberone with an ERJ135. (Dec 2011)
One of the two Air Zimbabwe Boeing 767-200s was temporarily impounded at London/Gatwick by American General Supplies demanding a USD1.2m debt settlement. A Boeing 737-500 was also temporarily held at Johannesburg. (Dec 2011)
Air Zimbabwe suspended all operations to London and Johannesburg from 1st Jan due ‘financial and capacity reasons’. Flights to China,the DRC and Zambia where writs for debts are seemingly less likely continue. (Jan 2012)
Air Zimbabwe paid a USD200 ‘incentive’ to maintenance staff to resolve a Boeing 737-500 engine fault. The other 737-500 remains grounded for a corrosion check. All 3 MA60 are grounded as was at least temporarily a 767-200s. The actual operational fleet became therefore a single 767 and a 737.(Jan 2012)
Air Zimbabwe: On 17 Jan an A320-200 arrived in Harare ostensibly for the airline but the Acting CEO asserted that he is ‘not at liberty to discuss–it is a shareholder (ie government) matter’ (Jan 2012)
Air Zimbabwe was then placed under ‘judicial management’, a High Court appointee assumed control and the existing Board of Directors stripped of all powers. Liquidation was then anticipated, but again as above, watch this space. (Jan 2012)
Blue Sky (Botswana) plans an early 2012 start-up with up to 4x737s flying regional and domestic services. Blue Sky is born of Flying Mission Services, an operator of medical and mission services on contract to Botswana Ministry of Health. It also exists in local forms elsewhere in Africa.T he Managing Director of both companies is Mark Spicer. It is unclear what licenses/AOC Blue Sky has. (Dec 2011)
Comair of South Africa's Board has ended the top level structure which gave it two joint CEOs which emanated from the original involvement of two families. ‘Tough trading conditions demand single leadership’ is given as the reason. Erik Ventner has become the sole CEO and Gidon Novick has resigned from the company. Comair's two main arms are the BA franchise operation and the separate but complementary bright, upbeat low cost carrier Kulula. Both are success stories in a highly competitive market.(Dec1 2011)
LAM of Mozambique is anticipating purchase of two ‘Embraer aircraft’ in 2012. (Dec2011). Presumably these will be 170 or 190 series aircraft which they currently operate as far afield as Nairobi.
Proflight, Zambia’s main domestic carrier is to growi ts Jetstream 41 fleet from 2 to 7 during 2012 (Dec 2011)
SAA is launching twice weekly A319s to Pointe Noire, three a week to Kigali/Bujumbura and a thrice weekly Airbus 340-600 nonstop to Beijing (Jan 2012)
SAA's new CEO Siza Mzimela reported improved 2010/11 net profits of USD101m. 2012 challenges include ‘increased competition and Johannesburg baggage pilferage’, the bugbear of any hub carrier. SAA's low cost subsidiary, the striking and appropriately coloured Mango, is profitable. (Jan 2012)
Santaco Airlines( SA Taxi Assoc) applied for operating licence in Nov 2011 but has yet to seek AOC. Full operational launch pledged ‘before Easter 2012’. (Jan 2012)
Santaco Airlines President, Jabulani Mthembu, has been suspended pending resolution of ‘nepotism and financial irregularities’ allegations.(Jan12)
Zambesi Airlines' AOC has been restored but resumption of operations are dependent on meeting ‘other safety and financial requirements’. A USD2mn debt is owing to local National Airports Corporation. (Jan 2012)
3. WEST AFRICA
Air Nigeria is to acquire 2 A330-200 and 2 B737NGs during 2012. Fleet growth to 15is planned as is the construction of a maintenance facility and establishment of an MRO. (Jan 2012)
Air Nigeria hopes to restart London and Johannesburg services in mid 2012. (Jan 2012)
Arik Air of Nigeria planned a 6th Dec 2011 launch of CRJ900 flights between Lagos and 3 new destinations: Cotonou, Ouagadougou and Bamako, all via Dakar. Also being launhed are two weekly services between Lagos and Luanda.(Dec 2011)
ASKY (Togo) 40% owned by Ethiopian is seeking investors for growth to a ‘multi-hub African system’.(Dec 2011)
ASKY plans 2 additional 737-700s plus one Q400 in 2012. Ethiopian is negotiating for them negotiating.(Dec 2011)
ASKY's President, Gervais Djondo, spoke of ‘market perception difficulties’ arising from Ethiopian Airlines 40% shareholding and Management Contract. ASKY is seen as "an appendix (appendage surely?) of Ethiopian "-for which they should be delighted commercially, and and some of its managment are perhaps finding this irksome? If so that is unfortunate and unwise as Ethiopian is a very professional and well run business and they have a lot to learn from it. He also mentioned slow progress in securing regional frequency increases eg Nigeria. That is not a new experience for any airline in the region.(Dec 2011)
Camair-Co of Cameroon has reduced Paris flights from 6 to 4 per week, and added 3 a week instead to Lyons. 737-700s are used. Kinshasa has also been added to the network.(Dec 2011)
National Airways (Cameroon) plans re-launch with order for 2 MA60 from China. Good luck to them. It is a domestic network operator based in Yaounde. Previously it ceased operations with 2x 737-200s in 2009. (Dec 2011)
Okapi Airlines (DRC) on 23rd Nov 2011 launched domestic services with awet-leased B734 from Tailwinds, Turkey. Kinshasa – Lubumbashi/Kisangani/Mbuji Mayi is the initial network.(Dec 2011)
4. NORTH AFRICA
Afriqiyah plans a resumption of operations initially with a single A319 to Istanbul, Alexandria and Tunis.(Dec 2011)
Afriqiyah and Libyan Airlines have signed a maintenance agreements with AFI KLM Engineering and Maintainence to return their aircraft to service. Afriqiyah is to restore A320s/A330s and Libyan Airlines to restore seven A320-200s, including three on order, and two ATR42-500s. Air France Consulting is also involved.(Jan 2012)
Afriqiyah and Libyan Airlines: A govern,ent decision on the proposal to merge is anticipated in March 2012 followed by a 12 month implimentation process.(Many would argue that big bang mergers are better than slow and gradual,- think in extremis of the excrutiating long BEA/BOAC version). Privatization may then follow says the interim Transport Minister although realistically buyers may be hard to find.(Jan 2012)
Royal Air Maroc joined AEA, the Assosciation of European Airlines (Dec 2011)
Royal Air Maroc launched twice weekly B 737-800s between Casablanca-Luanda via Libreville, adding a TAAG codeshare for marketing and to ease the regulatory path. When, one wonders, will the apparent general two frequencies a week per carrier limit be abandoned by Angola or will protectionism to force business onto TAAG go on into the future? Also being launched are 5 737-800 weekly flights Bissau via Banjul. Again some useful new sectors appearing on the African map and hopefully with local sector traffic rights thrown in. Blinded sectors have been literally a waste of space ever since colonial times when for example East African flew blinded (ie unable to pick up local sector passengers) Blantyre-Salisbury(Harare) and Central African from Dar es Salaam to Nairobi. The losers ? Anyone trying to plan a multi sector itinerary,-ie business and aviation in general.(Dec 2011 )
Royal Air Maroc are disposing mix of 6 B737-500s/B767-300s so as to re-equip with a standard fleet of 9 B737-800s in 2012-14 .(Dec 2011)
5. NON AFRICAN AIRLINES
Blue Panorama(Italy),who are rumoured likely to merge with Alitalia are seeking to fill the gap left by Air Seychelles withdrawal from long-haul operations by launching Seychelles–Milan/Rome services.(Dec 2011)
British Airways plans to resume operations London Heathrow to Tripoli from May 2012 (Jan 2012)
Brussels Airlines is increasing frequencies to Douala, Yaounde, Abidjan, Nairobi and Bujumbura from April 2012 and Kinshasa is to become nonstop. Accra is likely to be left to Lufthansa.(Dec 2011)
Brussels Airlines is discontinuing the DRC Korongo Airlines joint venture due ‘problems with DRC authorities’. Where have we seen this before? Similar frustrations to Virgin Nigeria in Nigeria ? The disposal of the fleet of Belgian registered 2 BAE146s and 1 B737-300 is unclear. (Dec 2011)
Emirates through IATA is working with 23 different ATC units across Africa to upgrade systems enabling introduction of ‘flexible tracks’ on their ultra long haul 15 hour plus Dubai-Sao Paulo sectors. Fuel savings of 2% or more are hoped for. (Jan2012)
As noted above, Etihad has taken a USD20mn 40% stake in Air Seychelles as that carrier restructures into a solely regional carrier. As part of the arrangment, Etihad has signed a 5 year manament contract and already terminated a number of previous office holders. This may or may not be popular locally. Cramer Ball, previouly Etihad's Regional General Manager Asia and Australasia,has been appointed CEO and a codeshare agreement signed and Abu Dhabi-Seychelles frequencies will be increased to at least daily. Qatar are already in Seychelles with a daily A319 and Emirates with 11 weekly A340-500s.(Jan 2012)
Gulf Air has delayed its launch of Juba services until June 2012 (Jan 2012)
KLM has delayed the launch of twice weekly A330-200 flights to Luanda from November 2011 to March 2012 (Dec 2011)
KLM is to launch thrice weekly A330-200 services to Lusaka from May 2012 (Dec 2011)
Malaysian Airlines is to discontinue its 3 times weekly Kuala Lumpur-Johannesburg and twice weekly Kuala Lumpur- Capetown-Buenos Aires services. This still leaves the city with a four times weekly SIA service to Singapore although that is uncompetitive to north Asian cities such as Hong Kong against Emirates twice daily offerings. Both these routes were part of former Prime Minister Mahathir's pressure for the Malaysian flag to be seen wordwide. Unfortunately for the airline the government never paid them a subsidy to oblige. Ideally these and other uneconomic flag waving operations would have been flown under government contract to shield the airline from the losses. (Dec 2011)
Royal Jordanian launched twice weekly A319 services to Nairobi on 16th Dec 2011. Algiers and Lagos/Accra are to follow on 31 March 2012 while flights to Accra via Addis are also being considered.(Dec 2011)
Turkish Airlines, along with the Gulf fraternity one of the world's fastest growing carriers, has received the first of 15 737-900ERs on order for new thin routes to Africa. Their fleet now numbers 178 and is due to grow to 200. Turkey is geographically well placed against Emirates/GulfAir/Qatar and Etihad for Europe-Middle East and Africa business as it requires less of a detour than flying via the Gulf. (Dec 2011)
Turkish Airlines new 2012 operations are to include Abuja, Kano, Abidjan, Kinshasa and, Mogadishu The latter has now started .See previous Airnthere news item.(Jan 2012)
6. MISCELLANEOUS
AFRAA has announced that 9 airlines are signed up for phase 1 of a joint fuel buying agreement: Kenya Airways, Ethiopian Airlines, Air Malawi, Air Namibia, Air Seychelles, LAM Mozambique, Precision Air, Rwandair and TAAG Angola. There will be joint negotiation but individual contracts.(Jan 2012)
AFRAA's Secretry General has criticised the 1 Jan 2012 introduction of the European ETS ‘Carbon Tax’ claiming that third world countries were specifically exempted under the Kyoto Protocol (Jan 2012)
Fastjet A new, all-jet, low-cost carrier for Africa is proposed by Easyjet’s Stelios Haji-Ioannou with UK investment firm Rubicon with £14m launch funds. Fly 540 Group development is planned with the new (as opposed to Tiny Rowland's) Lonrho .Stelios seeks full control. East African Safari Express which ceased operations in December 2010 is also somewhere in the mix but there is a lot of fog about at the moment.(Jan 2012)
Kilimanjaro International Airport, which lies on the plains between Moshi and Arusha or Kilimanjaro and Meru for the mountaineers is to undergo US$28m rehabilitation starting 2013. It will be a 3 year programme partly funded by the Dutch Government. This will be the first upgrade since the opening in 1971. Much of its hoped for potential in attracting international long haul services full of tourists for Tanzania's northern safari circuit has not materialised although Ethiopian and KLM have consistently hung in there and persevered. BA tried it as an end sector doubling back from Dar es Salaam in the Tristar era but that didn't work,(a seven day crew slip can't have helped) whereas KLM do it on a triangular routing from Amsterdam continuing to Dar es salaam and returning nonstop to Holland. (Dec 2011)
Libya: Resumption of stalled work on Tripoli International Airport expansion is scheduled for ‘in next few months’. A new runway, 2 new terminals, and systems upgrades are planned. (Jan 2012)
Mauritania Nouakchott Airport is to be rebuilt over next 2 years. 2 runways are included (Dec 2011)
Nairobi's Jomo Kenyatta International( JKIA), the achilles heel of Kenya Airways network and frequency growth plans, is beginning to see physical building work on the new Kenya Airways Terminal or Unit 4, while within the existing two international units 1 and 2 refurbishment of floors and lighting is progressing along the very narrow concourse between the lines of identically provisioned duty free shops from what is the Kenya Airways end to the foreigners preferred gates. Currently it is just reaching KLM's preferred location but is two short of BA's. The latter appear to have been ousted from their former preference of boarding almost directly out of the only respectable airside catering facility, the Java House coffee shop.
Outside the airport itself the Kenya Airports Authority faces contempt of court action for the ‘barbaric’ demolition of ‘hundreds of homes’ on disputed land needed for planned airport development and for a security buffer between the airport and the outside world.The Airport Authority probably isn't too worried as the deed has been done along with a similar one around the boundary of the extremely busy movements) closer to town Wilson Airport. Both are hardly reversable.( March 2012)
The Federal Airports Authority of Nigeria is to upgrade 12 Nigerian airports in a USD120m project. New domestic terminals are underway at Abuja and Lagos. Ideally a modern domestic facility would have been built adjacent to the international terminal but this appears not to be the case and a messy off-airport transfer is likely to remain the link between the two. A useful model could be Australia's Sydney where the linking coaches operate between international and domestics within the airport fences rather than outside it giving a much more satisfactory product away from any hassles or road congestion in the outside world. (Dec 2011)
Tanzania: Swissport's handling monopoly has ended at Dar es Salaam airport following persistent pressure from regional carriers over charges being higher than the regional average.(Dec 2011)
Uganda's new Bugesera airport project has selected 11 bidders from 33 Expressions of Interest. That's a long shortlist. A 3 year construction is anticipated on a build, operate, transfer principle with a late 2012 start.(Jan 2012)
John Williams January 2012
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Monday, 12 March 2012
Beware Turks bearing gifts,- Al Shabaab's response to Turkish Airlines services to Mogadishu.
Vigorous expansionists Turkish Airlines have boosted the Somali city of Mogadishu's progress towards normality and restoration of links with the world by inaugurating a twice weekly service from Ankara.
There's no pleasing everybody though. Al Shabaab have decried the move as a Turkish effort to undermine local traders and to poison the population with time expired foodstuffs.
There's no pleasing everybody though. Al Shabaab have decried the move as a Turkish effort to undermine local traders and to poison the population with time expired foodstuffs.
Saturday, 10 March 2012
Sweet dreams on 787- You may not be able to see out,- and you may have no choice.
Initial passenger reports on the entry into service of ANA's short and long haul 787s are, like the aircraft itself, slowly beginning to appear. Conspicuously absent after all the original manufacturer's hype is the word "Wow!".This may be partly due to ANA's own conservative approach to cabin furnishing, particularly on the short haul version, but is probably mainly down to the realisation that however revolutionary the construction and materials, the tube in which people are sitting is pretty much a new form of the fairly unglamorous and not particularly large 767.
Most worrying though is confirmation that as a passenger, especially one sitting by the much vaunted much larger window seats, you may not have control over whether or not you can actually see out. The cabin crew, in an electronic victory in the war that has often broken out between them and scenery watchers especially on long haul daylight flights over spectacular scenery (think Himalayas, Alaska and others) over "instructions" to pull down window blinds "so that people can see their videos/laptops/get some sleep, on the 787 have total control over whether the windows are opaque or see-through. The scenery watchers and the claustraphobic had assumed that they would have individual override for their particular window. This appears not to be so. That is worrying. Some legacy carriers' crews in particular have been keen to minimise demands for in flight service by quite forcibly demanding that blinds be down. Those strong willed customers who really like to look out and feel the choice should be theirs anyway have resolutely fought back with the short word "No". It now looks as if it may be game over for them and they will just have to avoid 787s. Please tell us that isn't so and they just haven't found the right button yet.
Most worrying though is confirmation that as a passenger, especially one sitting by the much vaunted much larger window seats, you may not have control over whether or not you can actually see out. The cabin crew, in an electronic victory in the war that has often broken out between them and scenery watchers especially on long haul daylight flights over spectacular scenery (think Himalayas, Alaska and others) over "instructions" to pull down window blinds "so that people can see their videos/laptops/get some sleep, on the 787 have total control over whether the windows are opaque or see-through. The scenery watchers and the claustraphobic had assumed that they would have individual override for their particular window. This appears not to be so. That is worrying. Some legacy carriers' crews in particular have been keen to minimise demands for in flight service by quite forcibly demanding that blinds be down. Those strong willed customers who really like to look out and feel the choice should be theirs anyway have resolutely fought back with the short word "No". It now looks as if it may be game over for them and they will just have to avoid 787s. Please tell us that isn't so and they just haven't found the right button yet.
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